To add to your pessimism, which in my view is entirely justified, I would say that the EU will remain extremely wary of negotiating any closer ties with the UK as long as the possibility remains of a government coming to power that wants to re-fight Brexit and put even greater distance between the UK and the EU. Of course, if the pro-Brexit forces were taken on and neutralised by the present government, along with other sympathetic political forces, EU fears might be assuaged. But, exactly as you say, there's just no sign of that happening.
And just like that, Macron's pettiness on obliging Britain to give up more fishing rights for entry to the EU defence pact re Ukraine, free movement of young citizens while swathes of our young are not gainfully employed, and obfuscation on expansion of ECJ jurisdiction over the UK, proves more than ever that nothing the EU has ever dealt with us regarding Brexit has been in good faith or equitable.
Young people in the UK are not working because there aren't jobs available. There are over 1m vacancies currently.
To suggest this new agreement will mean they'll go to the EU to secure work is fanciful.
What is true is that the agreement means EU students will get places at UK universities for UK fees, meaning a shortfall in universities incomes and an even greater need to find students from Africa and Asia.
Don't see how this suits the UK and our interests.
I think you're right that there's little / no hope of rejoining for the foreseeable future, but I still think you're making some misdiagnoses.
The Remain campaign was awful. When the Referendum was called there was nothing in Chichester, so a friend and I started a campaign there, and over time joined up with the official campaign. Most of us thought we were going to lose several weeks out.
The Leave campaign(s) - plural - were good. And this is one of the reasons I keep coming back to PR. IN effect, the Remain campaign ran a FPTP campaign. It operated as though it only needed to win a plurality of votes (and it was indeed the most-supported option). The Leave campaigns operated as if they were fighting under PR... They ran targeted and contradictory messages and then added them up together. You say Farage campaigned loudly and clearly to leave everything... but actually that's not true. Some audiences were told a vote to leave meant we'd leave everything. Others were told we'd stay in the Single Market. Asian voters in Birmingham were told Brexit would mean we could stop Eastern Europeans coming in and replace them with Asians. Other voters were told we could replace European immigrants with Americans, Australians and Canadians - or with no immigration at all.
Which brings me to the second point. The Referendum was a proxy for a lot of other battles. In effect, it asked the question (or the Leave campaign was successful in framing the referendum as): "are you satisfied with the way things are?"
The Remain campaign's underlying, complacent assumption was that things were fine. The reality in the country was that a majority were fed up.
I honestly can't see how a political campaign that called for the UK to rejoin could succeed without demonstrating that it both understood the level of dissatisfaction in the country and offered solutions that would rebuild trust in the political process. (I very much agree with you that 'Remainers' continue to be tone-deaf.)
We are stuck for the moment with FPTP and I'm sorry, but that disincentivises parties from going all out for Full rejoin. This isn't just me offering up self-justification for Lib Dem policy... This is me having campaigned within the Lib Dems and on a non-party / cross-party basis on a rejoin platform and in recent years having campaigned on a platform that was not explicitly remain. The latter has been far more successful. Sorry, but under FPTP, that's the cold, hard truth. The 60% who want to rejoin does not translate into an electoral majority for rejoining.
Where I think there may still be a ray of hope is economics... This country is in a terrible economic place and it's hard to see how anyone can fix that without rejoining the Customs Union and Single Market (or something very similar). I will remind you that it is Lib Dem policy not just to rejoin the Customs Union but the Single Market too. It will be interesting to see if a period of power, scrutiny and perhaps accountability will dent Reform (although note that they don't talk much about Brexit these days... Now that they have a stake in the current system, they also campaign on other issues - as they have to.)
Excellent points, reading you as a now Brexit supporter (then Remain voter).
Looking at how Macron has tied this Ukraine defence pact EU agreement to fish quotas demonstrates to me how Leave was the right choice, how untrustworthy the EU are.
Throw in taking about free movement of any kind while we have a critical mass of young Brits not in education/training yet not working, and obfuscation around the role of the ECJ in this re-set that Starmer is attempting.
For the avoidance of doubt... Brexit was a disaster, that will continue to bleed the country economically and politically. We should rejoin the EU as soon as possible.
I'm deeply unpersuaded by Nick's 'just campaign harder' suggestion, for a number of reasons. The Lib Dem policy of rejoining the Customs Union and Single Market, within this parliamentary term if possible, seems sensible to me.
I'd prefer a full rejoin, but can't see how that can happen for the time being.
One of the tragedies about the Brexit referendum was that it was configured as a democratic vote and has the power of a democratic vote (in practice, even if technically it was 'only advisory'), but it lacked one of the crucial elements democracy requires to function: accountability. It was a vote against the status quo, but it could never be fulfilled or judged. No one was responsible for delivering the multiple, contradictory claims which were made for Brexit. No one could have been responsible. Whereas voters get the chance every 4/5 years to vote afresh on what direction they want the country to go in, with Brexit, there was no mechanism for people to express their approval (or otherwise) of the course the country was on.
There was an article in yesterday's (Saturday's) Guardian with interviews with people from Thurrock. They were expressing disappointment that the money saved by Brexit hadn't made a visible difference to their lives. When you have people who seriously believe that Brexit could make them wealthier "if only it were done right" then you have a massive problem. They simply refuse to take responsibility for the catastrophe which they have inflicted not only on themselves, but on everyone else, and in fact double down on it, refusing to see what's right before them. The misplaced belief in their own superiority, the intellectual laziness, the embracing of idiotic slogans - it's no good saying "well we should be nice to these people because they know no better". Either they are adults with adult responsibilities for how they use their votes, inform them themselves and express opinions, or they are children who should not be trusted with any decision-making. Which is it?
Keep banging on about Brits' superiority attitudes and see how difficult it will be to convince a majority to Rejoin if the chance ever arises.
Maybe take a leaf out of Nick's book, and Aaron Bastani in Runcorn at the bye election, who both have nuanced views on this, not the dumb hicks opinions everyone on Remain-biased forums have.
To add to your pessimism, which in my view is entirely justified, I would say that the EU will remain extremely wary of negotiating any closer ties with the UK as long as the possibility remains of a government coming to power that wants to re-fight Brexit and put even greater distance between the UK and the EU. Of course, if the pro-Brexit forces were taken on and neutralised by the present government, along with other sympathetic political forces, EU fears might be assuaged. But, exactly as you say, there's just no sign of that happening.
And just like that, Macron's pettiness on obliging Britain to give up more fishing rights for entry to the EU defence pact re Ukraine, free movement of young citizens while swathes of our young are not gainfully employed, and obfuscation on expansion of ECJ jurisdiction over the UK, proves more than ever that nothing the EU has ever dealt with us regarding Brexit has been in good faith or equitable.
"free movement of young citizens"
Not on the table from either UK or EU side.
Funnily the two sides are fully aligned on this.
For the EU it is a privilege that only its citizens have access to and for the UK it is something they don't want their citizen to have access to.
"swathes of our young are not gainfully employed"
Luckily the Youth Mobility Scheme, should it be agreed, will open up a job and education market many times the size of the one at home.
Young people in the UK are not working because there aren't jobs available. There are over 1m vacancies currently.
To suggest this new agreement will mean they'll go to the EU to secure work is fanciful.
What is true is that the agreement means EU students will get places at UK universities for UK fees, meaning a shortfall in universities incomes and an even greater need to find students from Africa and Asia.
Don't see how this suits the UK and our interests.
"Young people in the UK are not working because there aren't jobs available. There are over 1m vacancies currently."
Numbers often don't tell the full story.
There could be a mismatch in locations, i.e. jobs and potential candidates in different areas and candidates reluctant to move.
Or a mismatch in skills.
"To suggest this new agreement will mean they'll go to the EU to secure work is fanciful."
It isn't just work, more important could be education and training.
Some EU countries have developed their non-university education much further than the UK.
Even if the proposals were limited to work they would be open a lot of possibilities if the issue mentioned above is mismatch in skills.
"What is true is that the agreement means EU students will get places at UK universities for UK fees"
And vice-versa.
Which is of even more value to UK students due to the lower tuition fees in most EU countries.
And, as state above, some of these countries have a much wider range of educational options.
I think you're right that there's little / no hope of rejoining for the foreseeable future, but I still think you're making some misdiagnoses.
The Remain campaign was awful. When the Referendum was called there was nothing in Chichester, so a friend and I started a campaign there, and over time joined up with the official campaign. Most of us thought we were going to lose several weeks out.
The Leave campaign(s) - plural - were good. And this is one of the reasons I keep coming back to PR. IN effect, the Remain campaign ran a FPTP campaign. It operated as though it only needed to win a plurality of votes (and it was indeed the most-supported option). The Leave campaigns operated as if they were fighting under PR... They ran targeted and contradictory messages and then added them up together. You say Farage campaigned loudly and clearly to leave everything... but actually that's not true. Some audiences were told a vote to leave meant we'd leave everything. Others were told we'd stay in the Single Market. Asian voters in Birmingham were told Brexit would mean we could stop Eastern Europeans coming in and replace them with Asians. Other voters were told we could replace European immigrants with Americans, Australians and Canadians - or with no immigration at all.
Which brings me to the second point. The Referendum was a proxy for a lot of other battles. In effect, it asked the question (or the Leave campaign was successful in framing the referendum as): "are you satisfied with the way things are?"
The Remain campaign's underlying, complacent assumption was that things were fine. The reality in the country was that a majority were fed up.
I honestly can't see how a political campaign that called for the UK to rejoin could succeed without demonstrating that it both understood the level of dissatisfaction in the country and offered solutions that would rebuild trust in the political process. (I very much agree with you that 'Remainers' continue to be tone-deaf.)
We are stuck for the moment with FPTP and I'm sorry, but that disincentivises parties from going all out for Full rejoin. This isn't just me offering up self-justification for Lib Dem policy... This is me having campaigned within the Lib Dems and on a non-party / cross-party basis on a rejoin platform and in recent years having campaigned on a platform that was not explicitly remain. The latter has been far more successful. Sorry, but under FPTP, that's the cold, hard truth. The 60% who want to rejoin does not translate into an electoral majority for rejoining.
Where I think there may still be a ray of hope is economics... This country is in a terrible economic place and it's hard to see how anyone can fix that without rejoining the Customs Union and Single Market (or something very similar). I will remind you that it is Lib Dem policy not just to rejoin the Customs Union but the Single Market too. It will be interesting to see if a period of power, scrutiny and perhaps accountability will dent Reform (although note that they don't talk much about Brexit these days... Now that they have a stake in the current system, they also campaign on other issues - as they have to.)
Excellent points, reading you as a now Brexit supporter (then Remain voter).
Looking at how Macron has tied this Ukraine defence pact EU agreement to fish quotas demonstrates to me how Leave was the right choice, how untrustworthy the EU are.
Throw in taking about free movement of any kind while we have a critical mass of young Brits not in education/training yet not working, and obfuscation around the role of the ECJ in this re-set that Starmer is attempting.
For the avoidance of doubt... Brexit was a disaster, that will continue to bleed the country economically and politically. We should rejoin the EU as soon as possible.
I'm deeply unpersuaded by Nick's 'just campaign harder' suggestion, for a number of reasons. The Lib Dem policy of rejoining the Customs Union and Single Market, within this parliamentary term if possible, seems sensible to me.
I'd prefer a full rejoin, but can't see how that can happen for the time being.
One of the tragedies about the Brexit referendum was that it was configured as a democratic vote and has the power of a democratic vote (in practice, even if technically it was 'only advisory'), but it lacked one of the crucial elements democracy requires to function: accountability. It was a vote against the status quo, but it could never be fulfilled or judged. No one was responsible for delivering the multiple, contradictory claims which were made for Brexit. No one could have been responsible. Whereas voters get the chance every 4/5 years to vote afresh on what direction they want the country to go in, with Brexit, there was no mechanism for people to express their approval (or otherwise) of the course the country was on.
There was an article in yesterday's (Saturday's) Guardian with interviews with people from Thurrock. They were expressing disappointment that the money saved by Brexit hadn't made a visible difference to their lives. When you have people who seriously believe that Brexit could make them wealthier "if only it were done right" then you have a massive problem. They simply refuse to take responsibility for the catastrophe which they have inflicted not only on themselves, but on everyone else, and in fact double down on it, refusing to see what's right before them. The misplaced belief in their own superiority, the intellectual laziness, the embracing of idiotic slogans - it's no good saying "well we should be nice to these people because they know no better". Either they are adults with adult responsibilities for how they use their votes, inform them themselves and express opinions, or they are children who should not be trusted with any decision-making. Which is it?
Keep banging on about Brits' superiority attitudes and see how difficult it will be to convince a majority to Rejoin if the chance ever arises.
Maybe take a leaf out of Nick's book, and Aaron Bastani in Runcorn at the bye election, who both have nuanced views on this, not the dumb hicks opinions everyone on Remain-biased forums have.
Excellent piece. I don’t think there are many remainers out there who understand the status quo more than Nick