How the Lib Dems could hold the key to rejoining the EU - just not in the way most of you think It’s worth getting out of the way off the top that I have been disappointed in the Liberal Democrats for a while now. I was a Lib Dem for about ten years until I let my membership go in 2016. In 2019, when everything was getting exciting in Lib Dem land again, I thought about becoming a member once more, but stopped short. “They’ll find some way to fuck this all up,” I figured - and was sadly proven correct by events.
I did a couple of years as Press Officer for Epping Forest LibDems in the early 90's. I managed to find one decent story for the local paper, but the tory supporting rag cunningly turned the story around putting it on the front page but made it pro Tory. Such is the world we inhabit, so at the time I decided it wasn't worth my time and decided to drop LibDem and Trade Union activism and concentrate instead on the folk rock band I was in. I've been in and out as a non active member ever since.
Apart from the early Alliance days with the SDP influx from the Labour Party, the LibDems only thrived when they were centre left liberals with a radical edge, notably under Charles Kennedy. Disaffected Tories still liked to vote for them as well as disaffected left wing people.
Under First Past the Post it is doubtful that the present centre to centre right dominated LibDems would really fly in normal times next to the internal coalition that is the right wing Tory Party, which are the most successful of any in the democratic world. They are overwhelming and dangerous to be near, like the sun. However, these tory times are not normal ones and the coming collapse will benefit the LibDems as well as Labour and others and will last at least 2 terms, possibly much longer.
Nick is right to frame our European future around the future of Tory positioning. At least as long as we keep FPTP voting, the EU will realise that the UK cannot re-join fully unless the Tory Party accepts that, as they would be back in power and possibly taking us out again. If we drop FPTP for a decent form of PR voting then everything is up for grabs and I believe the present inbuilt right wing advantage is dissipated.
I'd like to see the LibDems more like the D66 Party in the Netherlands, but D66 exist on the back of PR voting, rather than the travesty of the UK's unrepresentative, undemocratic, majoritarian system.
That's a good point but you are forgetting our dominant right wing press, think tanks, Russian bots and the kind of old Tory money that financed UKIP then the Brexit Party, now ReformUK or the Leave Campaign to take us out. They would say we'd have to join the Euro ( we wouldn't), more immigrants would come in uncontrolled numbers ( we need more workers and EU members can expel the unwanted and many do this), Turkey would join ( it can't), it'll cost too much ( it costs less than we lose by being out), we'll lose control of laws and borders ( phoney ) and we'll lose our overseas trade deals ( they are worse than the EU's). Mostly they would say "WE TOLD YOU THE LAST TIME" ( what about 1975?). But the EU will not wish to risk a repeat of this process and the view of the Tory Party under FPTP is central to the future path of the UK. Proper PR voting would end that. I'm 63 soon and I want to see PR and back in the EU in my lifetime. I'm more confident about the EU than PR because of Labour's dinosaur grandees and officials.
A Referendum would not be essential to get back into the EU. A party could propose that we re-join in a manifesto and if it took power under our system it could do it. There might be a lot of shouting but it could be done.
I am not certain that anything opposed by the right could ever win a Referendum in the UK, at least under the vague, sloppy terms Cameron allowed, which enabled Leaving the EU to carry every half sensible, nutter and barking mad opinion and with the menu changing at least weekly and nothing solid to judge the outcome or direction against. The UK result would have been thrown out by Swiss courts or prevented from going ahead as it did in Eire.
The problem with that is you would be talking about 30% of the electorate (max) - so you lose the "will of the people" argument - which is really the only leg Brexit ever stood on.
By the way, this also works if any future government tried to make the next (rejoin) referendum a super majority (60%) referendum - as possibly floated by Steve Baker this week. If say 53% voted rejoin - the will of the people argument is stripped away, and the pressure to rejoin would only keep ramping up.
I joined the Lib Dems and campaigned for them in 2019 after ditching Labour on the day Corbyn ordered a 3-line whip on A50. (I'd only joined the LP to be able to vote him out as leader, although I'd always been a Labour voter and campaigned for them in 2017 via an anti-Brexit group). All the people I met in the Lib Dems were lovely. The candidate was excellent and made a big dent in the Labour majority. But I couldn't agree more about the strategy. Jo Swinson, utter delusional disaster. I left the Lib Dems after the election. After knocking on hundreds of doors I came to the conclusion their only selling point is that people think they are 'in the middle'. I say only but actually now it's a massively valuable asset. What you're saying here is all very plausible.
A critical part of this will be how many pro-EU voices there will be in the Tory party after the next General Election. Many have already left or were kicked out in 2019; others could lose their seats in 24/25. It also depends on their next leader. If the Tory members elect Braverman or an other hard-right figure, there will be no space in their party for pro-EU voices. Although.....that would keep them unelectable, and the question then is where would those pro-EU voices go?
I did a couple of years as Press Officer for Epping Forest LibDems in the early 90's. I managed to find one decent story for the local paper, but the tory supporting rag cunningly turned the story around putting it on the front page but made it pro Tory. Such is the world we inhabit, so at the time I decided it wasn't worth my time and decided to drop LibDem and Trade Union activism and concentrate instead on the folk rock band I was in. I've been in and out as a non active member ever since.
Apart from the early Alliance days with the SDP influx from the Labour Party, the LibDems only thrived when they were centre left liberals with a radical edge, notably under Charles Kennedy. Disaffected Tories still liked to vote for them as well as disaffected left wing people.
Under First Past the Post it is doubtful that the present centre to centre right dominated LibDems would really fly in normal times next to the internal coalition that is the right wing Tory Party, which are the most successful of any in the democratic world. They are overwhelming and dangerous to be near, like the sun. However, these tory times are not normal ones and the coming collapse will benefit the LibDems as well as Labour and others and will last at least 2 terms, possibly much longer.
Nick is right to frame our European future around the future of Tory positioning. At least as long as we keep FPTP voting, the EU will realise that the UK cannot re-join fully unless the Tory Party accepts that, as they would be back in power and possibly taking us out again. If we drop FPTP for a decent form of PR voting then everything is up for grabs and I believe the present inbuilt right wing advantage is dissipated.
I'd like to see the LibDems more like the D66 Party in the Netherlands, but D66 exist on the back of PR voting, rather than the travesty of the UK's unrepresentative, undemocratic, majoritarian system.
How could a future Tory party take us out again - without another referendum ?
That's a good point but you are forgetting our dominant right wing press, think tanks, Russian bots and the kind of old Tory money that financed UKIP then the Brexit Party, now ReformUK or the Leave Campaign to take us out. They would say we'd have to join the Euro ( we wouldn't), more immigrants would come in uncontrolled numbers ( we need more workers and EU members can expel the unwanted and many do this), Turkey would join ( it can't), it'll cost too much ( it costs less than we lose by being out), we'll lose control of laws and borders ( phoney ) and we'll lose our overseas trade deals ( they are worse than the EU's). Mostly they would say "WE TOLD YOU THE LAST TIME" ( what about 1975?). But the EU will not wish to risk a repeat of this process and the view of the Tory Party under FPTP is central to the future path of the UK. Proper PR voting would end that. I'm 63 soon and I want to see PR and back in the EU in my lifetime. I'm more confident about the EU than PR because of Labour's dinosaur grandees and officials.
A Referendum would not be essential to get back into the EU. A party could propose that we re-join in a manifesto and if it took power under our system it could do it. There might be a lot of shouting but it could be done.
I am not certain that anything opposed by the right could ever win a Referendum in the UK, at least under the vague, sloppy terms Cameron allowed, which enabled Leaving the EU to carry every half sensible, nutter and barking mad opinion and with the menu changing at least weekly and nothing solid to judge the outcome or direction against. The UK result would have been thrown out by Swiss courts or prevented from going ahead as it did in Eire.
The problem with that is you would be talking about 30% of the electorate (max) - so you lose the "will of the people" argument - which is really the only leg Brexit ever stood on.
By the way, this also works if any future government tried to make the next (rejoin) referendum a super majority (60%) referendum - as possibly floated by Steve Baker this week. If say 53% voted rejoin - the will of the people argument is stripped away, and the pressure to rejoin would only keep ramping up.
I joined the Lib Dems and campaigned for them in 2019 after ditching Labour on the day Corbyn ordered a 3-line whip on A50. (I'd only joined the LP to be able to vote him out as leader, although I'd always been a Labour voter and campaigned for them in 2017 via an anti-Brexit group). All the people I met in the Lib Dems were lovely. The candidate was excellent and made a big dent in the Labour majority. But I couldn't agree more about the strategy. Jo Swinson, utter delusional disaster. I left the Lib Dems after the election. After knocking on hundreds of doors I came to the conclusion their only selling point is that people think they are 'in the middle'. I say only but actually now it's a massively valuable asset. What you're saying here is all very plausible.
A critical part of this will be how many pro-EU voices there will be in the Tory party after the next General Election. Many have already left or were kicked out in 2019; others could lose their seats in 24/25. It also depends on their next leader. If the Tory members elect Braverman or an other hard-right figure, there will be no space in their party for pro-EU voices. Although.....that would keep them unelectable, and the question then is where would those pro-EU voices go?