This week in Brexitland, October 26, 2023
How the Lib Dems could hold the key to rejoining the EU - just not in the way most of you think
It’s worth getting out of the way off the top that I have been disappointed in the Liberal Democrats for a while now. I was a Lib Dem for about ten years until I let my membership go in 2016. In 2019, when everything was getting exciting in Lib Dem land again, I thought about becoming a member once more, but stopped short. “They’ll find some way to fuck this all up,” I figured - and was sadly proven correct by events.
However, I have now come to the conclusion that the Lib Dems might hold the key to us rejoining the European Union. It won’t be because they’ll campaign on the topic any time soon - under Ed Davey, they have shown a steely will in avoiding the topic at all costs. And it won’t be because there will be a hung parliament and the Lib Dems will ask for single market membership and then Labour will reluctantly agree and in we go. For one, it’s very unlikely we’re going to have a hung parliament. A Labour majority, probably a large one, is on the cards. Two, even if we did have a hung parliament, the Lib Dems would be very unlikely to ask for anything on Europe that was substantial. Three, even if there was a hung parliament and the Lib Dems asked Labour for something on Europe, Labour would say no and brace themselves to be a minority government with another election asap.
No, the Lib Dems could be our ticket back into the EU in a totally different, much more medium to long term way.
Despite coming in third in Mid-Bedfordshire, the Lib Dems should be in a position to take a load of seats at the next general election, if they run a decent enough campaign. The addendum there is key - the Lib Dems don’t tend to run very good general election campaigns of late, and their 2019 general election campaign may well be the worse political campaign in the history of the universe. The flip side to this argument is that the Lib Dems have been campaigning extremely well under Ed Davey’s leadership in this parliament - you don’t win the by-elections they have over the last couple of years otherwise. So, there is reason to think they’ll play it smart in 2024/25 given their recent track record.
They will be in the midst of what looks set to be a complete meltdown of the Conservative vote, which will be unbelievably helpful to them. Hell, there are scores of seats the Liberal Democrats should take next time, even if they don’t campaign or target particularly well - if they do both to a high standard, then we should see Lib Dem seats north of 40.
If the Lib Dems manage this, they will be in an interesting position to influence the future of the centre-right in Britain. For one, if the election goes badly enough for the Tories, the Liberal Democrats could legitimately be in a position to become the new dominant centre-right party in Britain - or at least, a big part of the equation as to how the centre-right recovers from the disaster that will be the next general election. I don’t think this scenario will arise, but I can’t entirely rule it out either.
Big Lib Dems gains could still massively influence the direction of the Conservative party, even if the latter don’t get wiped out. A large Lib Dem showing in Conservative-held seats would greatly aid the argument within the Tory fold that Brexit harmed the party and that the way back to the centre ground is by realising that eschewing the Braverman-ERG stuff is the only way to win again. This is in turn would massively boost the pro-Europeans within the Conservative party to become vocal about their desire to return to the single market and in time, the EU altogether.
So, either the Lib Dems become either the new centre-right party or a huge part of a new centre-right nexus that takes us back into the European Union - or, they scare enough of the Tories back into a pro-European position to alter the direction of the Conservative party. I’ve concluded that the better the Lib Dems do at the next general election - unless they deprive Labour of a majority, which could be a major setback for the timeline of rejoining the EU - the better our chances of rejoining the European Union in the medium to long term.
I won’t be voting for them - I’m in a safe Labour seat anyhow - but I have come to hope that lots of people do, at least in the areas where it will count.
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I did a couple of years as Press Officer for Epping Forest LibDems in the early 90's. I managed to find one decent story for the local paper, but the tory supporting rag cunningly turned the story around putting it on the front page but made it pro Tory. Such is the world we inhabit, so at the time I decided it wasn't worth my time and decided to drop LibDem and Trade Union activism and concentrate instead on the folk rock band I was in. I've been in and out as a non active member ever since.
Apart from the early Alliance days with the SDP influx from the Labour Party, the LibDems only thrived when they were centre left liberals with a radical edge, notably under Charles Kennedy. Disaffected Tories still liked to vote for them as well as disaffected left wing people.
Under First Past the Post it is doubtful that the present centre to centre right dominated LibDems would really fly in normal times next to the internal coalition that is the right wing Tory Party, which are the most successful of any in the democratic world. They are overwhelming and dangerous to be near, like the sun. However, these tory times are not normal ones and the coming collapse will benefit the LibDems as well as Labour and others and will last at least 2 terms, possibly much longer.
Nick is right to frame our European future around the future of Tory positioning. At least as long as we keep FPTP voting, the EU will realise that the UK cannot re-join fully unless the Tory Party accepts that, as they would be back in power and possibly taking us out again. If we drop FPTP for a decent form of PR voting then everything is up for grabs and I believe the present inbuilt right wing advantage is dissipated.
I'd like to see the LibDems more like the D66 Party in the Netherlands, but D66 exist on the back of PR voting, rather than the travesty of the UK's unrepresentative, undemocratic, majoritarian system.
I joined the Lib Dems and campaigned for them in 2019 after ditching Labour on the day Corbyn ordered a 3-line whip on A50. (I'd only joined the LP to be able to vote him out as leader, although I'd always been a Labour voter and campaigned for them in 2017 via an anti-Brexit group). All the people I met in the Lib Dems were lovely. The candidate was excellent and made a big dent in the Labour majority. But I couldn't agree more about the strategy. Jo Swinson, utter delusional disaster. I left the Lib Dems after the election. After knocking on hundreds of doors I came to the conclusion their only selling point is that people think they are 'in the middle'. I say only but actually now it's a massively valuable asset. What you're saying here is all very plausible.