Would a hung parliament mean a better chance to reverse Brexit? This week, the ridiculousness of the current state of the British political media was laid bare. A Labour Party that has had a consistent lead in the national polls over the Tories, one this week putting them 19 points up, as well as all of us having witnessed the Conservatives losing 1,000 seats in a local election, has of course caused the press to frame everything in terms of the next general election resulting in a hung parliament.
Personally, I'm relaxed about either potential outcome - a Labour government, or a coalition with the Lib Dems. You might be telling me I'm wrong to think that a coalition with the Liberals would lead to a more pro-European outcome, or pressure on Labour to bring in PR - both of which are outcomes I would desire. I guess, your argument is that this picture is meant to scare Tory voters into turning out over fear of what might happen with a coalition, so the rhetoric is not really aimed at people with my political opinions. But even so, Cameron tried the "coalition of chaos" line back when Ed Milliband was leader of Labour. Given the country's experience since Brexit, and especially with the 3 Prime Ministers of the last government, it's pretty tricky to sell anyone on the idea that voting for a tired Tory party is a vote for stable government or against chaos - at least, I would have thought so!
A couple of points on the hung parliament implications.
My guess is some voters will be actively looking/hoping for this outcome, for the exact opposite reason - ie they see it as the best anti-Brexit vote. It would seem that for some reason the Lib Dem vote hasn't been fully expressed in the national opinion polls - and in the Blue Wall this could be tied up with strong feelings about Brexit lunacy as well as protection of the green belt and natural environment. (Of course, another explanation could be that people just prefer the LDs at the local level, but will still go with Starmer at the GE.)
John Curtice has been leaning towards a hung parliament even before these results - and he is hardly part of the right wing media. My own view has always been the the Labour lead could contract quite sharply once the manifesto is launched - and serious questions are asked about the credibility of their economic plans. And of course this also ties into whether you can really expect Starmer to make "Brexit work" and better than Sunak without fundamental change - such as the Single Market.
I think your (or Labour's) hopes of a fading SNP vote in Scotland will turn out to be misplaced. Labour are in severe difficulties in Scotland as they are in bed with the Tories in many councils (11 I think), are refusing to countenance a democratic second independence vote and are perceived as being as pro-Brexit as the Tories. Nothing that is happening in Westminster is helping the Scottish Labour vote - where it increases, it's mainly from disaffected pro-Union Tories. Yousaf is getting the SNP onto an even keel after the recent manufactured "investigations" which have resulted in no criminal charges and are widely viewed in Scotland as a put up job.
New podcast - The peer test - had a good discussion on this subject and particularly the future of the voting system between Alastair Campbell, Claire Ainsley talking to Sam Freedman and Ayesha Hazarika
Personally, I'm relaxed about either potential outcome - a Labour government, or a coalition with the Lib Dems. You might be telling me I'm wrong to think that a coalition with the Liberals would lead to a more pro-European outcome, or pressure on Labour to bring in PR - both of which are outcomes I would desire. I guess, your argument is that this picture is meant to scare Tory voters into turning out over fear of what might happen with a coalition, so the rhetoric is not really aimed at people with my political opinions. But even so, Cameron tried the "coalition of chaos" line back when Ed Milliband was leader of Labour. Given the country's experience since Brexit, and especially with the 3 Prime Ministers of the last government, it's pretty tricky to sell anyone on the idea that voting for a tired Tory party is a vote for stable government or against chaos - at least, I would have thought so!
A couple of points on the hung parliament implications.
My guess is some voters will be actively looking/hoping for this outcome, for the exact opposite reason - ie they see it as the best anti-Brexit vote. It would seem that for some reason the Lib Dem vote hasn't been fully expressed in the national opinion polls - and in the Blue Wall this could be tied up with strong feelings about Brexit lunacy as well as protection of the green belt and natural environment. (Of course, another explanation could be that people just prefer the LDs at the local level, but will still go with Starmer at the GE.)
John Curtice has been leaning towards a hung parliament even before these results - and he is hardly part of the right wing media. My own view has always been the the Labour lead could contract quite sharply once the manifesto is launched - and serious questions are asked about the credibility of their economic plans. And of course this also ties into whether you can really expect Starmer to make "Brexit work" and better than Sunak without fundamental change - such as the Single Market.
I think your (or Labour's) hopes of a fading SNP vote in Scotland will turn out to be misplaced. Labour are in severe difficulties in Scotland as they are in bed with the Tories in many councils (11 I think), are refusing to countenance a democratic second independence vote and are perceived as being as pro-Brexit as the Tories. Nothing that is happening in Westminster is helping the Scottish Labour vote - where it increases, it's mainly from disaffected pro-Union Tories. Yousaf is getting the SNP onto an even keel after the recent manufactured "investigations" which have resulted in no criminal charges and are widely viewed in Scotland as a put up job.
New podcast - The peer test - had a good discussion on this subject and particularly the future of the voting system between Alastair Campbell, Claire Ainsley talking to Sam Freedman and Ayesha Hazarika