Would a hung parliament mean a better chance to reverse Brexit?
This week, the ridiculousness of the current state of the British political media was laid bare. A Labour Party that has had a consistent lead in the national polls over the Tories, one this week putting them 19 points up, as well as all of us having witnessed the Conservatives losing 1,000 seats in a local election, has of course caused the press to frame everything in terms of the next general election resulting in a hung parliament.
The first thing to clear up is how absurd this has been to witness. The right-wing media is hanging the logic of this hung parliament idea on a projection done from the local election results, taking the way people voted last Thursday and mapping those exact numbers onto the next general election. Doing this had Labour come up short of a majority - but I need to stress, this does not mean the projection itself is saying this will happen at the general election. For a start, the locals this year were set across a group of seats in England that consist of a lot of natural Tory territory. Lots of England without London, for the most part. And sure, if the general election to elect the next government was being decided only by England without London, I would agree that Labour will struggle to get a majority. However, you add back in London, plus Wales, plus a Scotland with a fading SNP and a majority doesn’t just look likely, it appears to be pretty much assured.
All right, but putting aside the likelihood of there being a hung parliament after the next election, should pro-Europeans be rooting for one to happen? In other words, would a hung parliament, one in which a Labour minority had to try and govern with the help of the Lib Dems, be better or worse for the prospects of rejoining the EU any time soon when compared to a Labour majority?
The first thing to say is that neither outcome would see us rejoin the EU within the next parliament. I think a lot of pro-Europeans are hanging their hopes here on the Lib Dems demanding something huge on Europe in the case of a hung parliament and Labour being forced to concede on it, but this feels very, very unlikely to me. One, because I think Labour would resist any call to do something on this front, with the view being that if the Lib Dems make life difficult for a Labour minority government, Starmer can view the period as the run up to another general election in which he can have proven his “no rolling back on Brexit” credentials with the dwindling but for the moment unfortunately still relevant Leave vote, as well as destroy the Tories’ “coalition of chaos” argument completely.
Besides, if there was a hung parliament and some sort of Lib-Lab partnership was the only thing that made sense, I still don’t think the Lib Dems would demand something on Europe. They would ask for something on PR instead, which Labour would not go for no matter what, as well as almost certainly go hard on an anti-development kick, promising to “protect the green belt”.
In other words, I don’t think a Lib-Lab thing is going to happen first and foremost because I think Labour are going to get a majority anyhow (this is what the polls are telling us again and again) and beyond that, I don’t think the dynamics of the thing or the feeling in either party lends itself to a rapprochement on Europe taking place next year.
I would say chin up to pro-Europeans however, because I think a Labour majority is our best bet for getting back into the EU in the next ten to fifteen years. Not because I think a Labour majority government will have any desire to revisit the Brexit issue any sooner than they have to, but for how things play out over a decade following a Labour victory in 2024 when compared to any other result.
A Labour majority government will come under constant and immediate pressure to be more pro-European, both by its members/voters and by external events. Simply put, every government so far that has tried to “make Brexit work” has failed and there is no reason to think Labour can make it work either. These factors combined with rejoin constantly inching up in the polls will make it hard for Labour to resist forever. Think of it as the Labour cabinet being terrified of going near the European question but the force of gravity pulling them closer and closer towards it.
Compare this to a Labour minority situation after the 2024 election: the Tories will figure, just as Labour did when the Lib-Con coalition formed in 2010, that they need to do no soul searching or change at all in order to get back into government. They’ll just need to wait for the current arrangement, which will look highly unstable, at least at first, to come crashing down. Therefore, we get no closer to the Tories having another think on Europe, which I feel is inevitable but miles away as things stand. Labour getting a majority will cause it to come closer a lot faster, as the party realises that Brexit didn’t work out for them as planned and perhaps single market membership is the most practical thing available.
You see, I figure the real turning point for Brexit is when there is at least a sizeable, vocal mass of pro-Europeanism within the Conservative party once again. That, more than anything else, will put pressure on a Labour government - if they think the Tories could offer to rejoin the single market and that this might be a vote winner for them, then Labour will panic. Starmer and those around him really, really don’t want to have to touch Europe if they don’t have to, but the Tories getting a jump on them on the issue would make it unavoidable.
So let’s cheer for a Labour majority, pro-Europeans. I genuinely feel it’s the best next step in terms of cutting down the waiting time to rejoin. The Tories and their cheerleaders are trying to advance the hung parliament narrative for a reason: they know it’s their best, last chance to try and sneak another general election victory. Scare the voters with the thought of instability. Those of us who wish to see the UK take its rightful place in Europe once again shouldn’t cheer them on ourselves with this nonsense.
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Personally, I'm relaxed about either potential outcome - a Labour government, or a coalition with the Lib Dems. You might be telling me I'm wrong to think that a coalition with the Liberals would lead to a more pro-European outcome, or pressure on Labour to bring in PR - both of which are outcomes I would desire. I guess, your argument is that this picture is meant to scare Tory voters into turning out over fear of what might happen with a coalition, so the rhetoric is not really aimed at people with my political opinions. But even so, Cameron tried the "coalition of chaos" line back when Ed Milliband was leader of Labour. Given the country's experience since Brexit, and especially with the 3 Prime Ministers of the last government, it's pretty tricky to sell anyone on the idea that voting for a tired Tory party is a vote for stable government or against chaos - at least, I would have thought so!
A couple of points on the hung parliament implications.
My guess is some voters will be actively looking/hoping for this outcome, for the exact opposite reason - ie they see it as the best anti-Brexit vote. It would seem that for some reason the Lib Dem vote hasn't been fully expressed in the national opinion polls - and in the Blue Wall this could be tied up with strong feelings about Brexit lunacy as well as protection of the green belt and natural environment. (Of course, another explanation could be that people just prefer the LDs at the local level, but will still go with Starmer at the GE.)
John Curtice has been leaning towards a hung parliament even before these results - and he is hardly part of the right wing media. My own view has always been the the Labour lead could contract quite sharply once the manifesto is launched - and serious questions are asked about the credibility of their economic plans. And of course this also ties into whether you can really expect Starmer to make "Brexit work" and better than Sunak without fundamental change - such as the Single Market.