What would happen if Reform overtook the Tories in the polls? Here’s how a certain scenario could unfold that would end with permanent political change in Britain What follows explores a hypothetical situation, nothing more. Could Reform start polling higher than the Conservative party, not once but consistently, in the run up to the general election? I would no longer say no chance. Things are starting to go so badly for Rishi Sunak that there is no floor (except, I suppose, zero percent in the polls, leading to zero seats). But Reform have a ways to go before we get to this point - or a better way to look at it is, the Tories have further to sink before that’s something we see happen.
I struggle to see what benefit Farage would obtain in being the front man for Reform UK. He rather seems to want to be a gadfly popping into and out of view at various right wing events. In this role, he gets all the benefit of his undue publicity and notoriety, without having the exert any significant amount of effort. I suspect that he rightly perceives leading any contingent of MPs as simply too much hard work, and thus will not engage in the scenario Nick posits.
From the National Front to the BNP to UKIP, we’ve always had fringe far-right maniacs in this country. Now, however, backed by the rising tide of right-wing populists around the world, these extremists have reached terrifying new heights, becoming increasingly relevant even in mainstream political debate.
The screenshot below, taken from Reform UK’s twitter page today, shows the party’s plans to properly “stop the boats”. Taking this Conservative government’s own Brexit-crazed immigration language right out of Sunak’s mouth, they’re pushing even further in favour of reducing our rights and silencing the majority to advance their fringe politics.
Only Reform UK will
STOP THE BOATS
I
Declare National Security threat
2
Leave ECHR
3 Zero illegals will resettle in the UK
4 New Dept. of Immigration staffed by
believers
Offshore processing centres in British
Overseas Territories
6
Pick up and take back to France
REFORM
UK
To Brexit parts
Let's
Save
Britain
Aside from the obvious, that immigration is not really anything close to a national security threat (even according to the Conservatives), that the ECHR protects our rights, and that number six would possibly require a declaration of war on France, we’re paying particular attention to point number four. The idea of a party officially calling to staff a government department with “believers” would be better placed in Soviet Russia, Nazi Germany, or Confederate America.
It’s reminiscent of Trump’s Project 2025, the MAGA movement’s ambition to forcibly convert America into a paradise for bigoted, immigrant-hating libertarians and religious zealots. The plot hinges on re-staffing government departments across the board, from housing to foreign affairs to the treasury, with loyal Trump supporters that shoot first and ask questions later (or never). They envision a government of loyalty and ideological purity, not of democracy and consensus.
It’s no coincidence that Reform is following a similar path, given their obvious financial and media ties to the Trump campaign (Farage himself even spoke to US Republicans at CPAC earlier this year).
Unlike in the States, the concern is not that Reform UK has any serious chance of winning the next general election. Instead – much as the MAGA movement did in 2016 – they’re carving their way into the existing political establishment. Increasingly, they’re framing the debates, setting the tone, and swaying former Conservatives to join their crusade.
Even if the Conservatives are voted out at the upcoming election, this will all be churning away in opposition. What will mutate next on the right side of the political aisle – especially if Trump wins in November and Project 2025 is realised – may very well drag us into an Orwellian abyss in 2029 should the next government fail to protect us.
Fundamentally, our movement is about thinking ahead to 2029, understanding the glaring loopholes that extremists can leverage to dismantle democracy. Everything Open Britain does is about reducing the possibility of falling into that authoritarian abyss. It may seem unlikely, but it can happen here – especially if we don’t take these threats seriously.
We have a real plan to get democracy back on track. Together, we can protect the country from the right-wing fanatics who would abuse a broken system for power. We can build something resilient and fit for the 21st century, where our voices are heard and those with unpopular views are relegated to the fringe where they belong. The clock is ticking, however. We need to act before it’s too late.
Fiddle-dee-dee, fiddle-dee-dah. None of this is going to make one iota of difference to the continuing destruction of the British State. None of it!
Tories out, Labour in, Reform/UKIP/etc. in, Lib-Dems in, military coup, who cares? The non-correctable errors have been made, there is only one direction Britain is going in; to 3rd world dystopia.
The actual, and potential, leaders of Britain have no ability to even analyze the problems much less solve them.
Scotland and NI could save themselves, but they need to wake up and realize that they are fused to a corpse.
If the Tories are not exactly flavour of the month here in Scotland, then Reform are about as welcome as the proverbial in the swimming pool. If an English nationalist party becomes the main right-wing one at Westminster, that will turbocharge the Scottish Indy campaign...
I think this is a fair look at what could happen, but like you I doubt it will. The Local Elections won't help the 'Reform are taking over' narrative much. Some potential defectors are so stupid that they may not realise that they'd be jumping into a scam, not a proper party, but others will realise there's no party infrastructure even if there is money.
One thing you don't mention, although it could emerge from the scenario you describe, is a pre-election pact between the Tories and Reform, as sort-of happened in 2019. The Tories got the better of it then, so Reform might demand - and get - the Tories to stand down for them in some places... Again, I don't see this as a likely scenario, but as with 2019 I see Farage etc. as being people who will ultimately bottle it and rather than bring the Tories down with them while they scoop up a handful of seats at best would rather see a larger contingent of Tories returned to Parliament than Labour do even better.
I would not believe that Reform could outpoll the Tories unless itself, then called the Brexit Party had not done so in the last EU elections. Of course the turnout is a lot lower in those and their vote was inflated in the aftermath of the Referendum and with Parliament unable to agree any version of a European or non European future. In addition, they had Fromage as the Pied Piper.
In such a scenario, the splitting of a shrunken right wing rump would end in extremely few seats going to either party and it could be either a long spell in opposition or curtains to the Tories as a party of power. At some point they would realise that under FPTP voting they would have to merge, as parties of the same name did in Canada, also under FPTP. This would be an Internationally rehearsed scenario ( Book: Revolt on the right)
Another scenario would be that the few remaining tories, punished by the cruel hand of FPTP voting with thinly spread voters totalling around 20%, join ReformUK in calling for PR voting, because it's not fair to us small parties. Oh the irony!
I don't know if Nick heard the latest poll before now, but in one, Tories down to 19% and ReformUK up to 15%. This reminds me a little of Labour and the SDP/Liberal Alliance in the early 80's both were on about 27-28% in '83 a much high figure but under FPTP, the SDP/LIBs won about 19 seats and Labour 100 odd. Neither were in any position to win, despite the terrible home grown Thatcher Minford recession and a second at the end of the decade, with the Tories not being ousted until Lamont's ERM DM debacle led to Blair's '97 landslide. Split polling will keep the right out too, but I expect they will subsume or merge and be back blaming Labour for this mess in about '28-29.
I struggle to see what benefit Farage would obtain in being the front man for Reform UK. He rather seems to want to be a gadfly popping into and out of view at various right wing events. In this role, he gets all the benefit of his undue publicity and notoriety, without having the exert any significant amount of effort. I suspect that he rightly perceives leading any contingent of MPs as simply too much hard work, and thus will not engage in the scenario Nick posits.
From the National Front to the BNP to UKIP, we’ve always had fringe far-right maniacs in this country. Now, however, backed by the rising tide of right-wing populists around the world, these extremists have reached terrifying new heights, becoming increasingly relevant even in mainstream political debate.
The screenshot below, taken from Reform UK’s twitter page today, shows the party’s plans to properly “stop the boats”. Taking this Conservative government’s own Brexit-crazed immigration language right out of Sunak’s mouth, they’re pushing even further in favour of reducing our rights and silencing the majority to advance their fringe politics.
Only Reform UK will
STOP THE BOATS
I
Declare National Security threat
2
Leave ECHR
3 Zero illegals will resettle in the UK
4 New Dept. of Immigration staffed by
believers
Offshore processing centres in British
Overseas Territories
6
Pick up and take back to France
REFORM
UK
To Brexit parts
Let's
Save
Britain
Aside from the obvious, that immigration is not really anything close to a national security threat (even according to the Conservatives), that the ECHR protects our rights, and that number six would possibly require a declaration of war on France, we’re paying particular attention to point number four. The idea of a party officially calling to staff a government department with “believers” would be better placed in Soviet Russia, Nazi Germany, or Confederate America.
It’s reminiscent of Trump’s Project 2025, the MAGA movement’s ambition to forcibly convert America into a paradise for bigoted, immigrant-hating libertarians and religious zealots. The plot hinges on re-staffing government departments across the board, from housing to foreign affairs to the treasury, with loyal Trump supporters that shoot first and ask questions later (or never). They envision a government of loyalty and ideological purity, not of democracy and consensus.
It’s no coincidence that Reform is following a similar path, given their obvious financial and media ties to the Trump campaign (Farage himself even spoke to US Republicans at CPAC earlier this year).
Unlike in the States, the concern is not that Reform UK has any serious chance of winning the next general election. Instead – much as the MAGA movement did in 2016 – they’re carving their way into the existing political establishment. Increasingly, they’re framing the debates, setting the tone, and swaying former Conservatives to join their crusade.
Even if the Conservatives are voted out at the upcoming election, this will all be churning away in opposition. What will mutate next on the right side of the political aisle – especially if Trump wins in November and Project 2025 is realised – may very well drag us into an Orwellian abyss in 2029 should the next government fail to protect us.
Fundamentally, our movement is about thinking ahead to 2029, understanding the glaring loopholes that extremists can leverage to dismantle democracy. Everything Open Britain does is about reducing the possibility of falling into that authoritarian abyss. It may seem unlikely, but it can happen here – especially if we don’t take these threats seriously.
We have a real plan to get democracy back on track. Together, we can protect the country from the right-wing fanatics who would abuse a broken system for power. We can build something resilient and fit for the 21st century, where our voices are heard and those with unpopular views are relegated to the fringe where they belong. The clock is ticking, however. We need to act before it’s too late.
Yours,
The Open Britain Team
Fiddle-dee-dee, fiddle-dee-dah. None of this is going to make one iota of difference to the continuing destruction of the British State. None of it!
Tories out, Labour in, Reform/UKIP/etc. in, Lib-Dems in, military coup, who cares? The non-correctable errors have been made, there is only one direction Britain is going in; to 3rd world dystopia.
The actual, and potential, leaders of Britain have no ability to even analyze the problems much less solve them.
Scotland and NI could save themselves, but they need to wake up and realize that they are fused to a corpse.
If the Tories are not exactly flavour of the month here in Scotland, then Reform are about as welcome as the proverbial in the swimming pool. If an English nationalist party becomes the main right-wing one at Westminster, that will turbocharge the Scottish Indy campaign...
I think this is a fair look at what could happen, but like you I doubt it will. The Local Elections won't help the 'Reform are taking over' narrative much. Some potential defectors are so stupid that they may not realise that they'd be jumping into a scam, not a proper party, but others will realise there's no party infrastructure even if there is money.
One thing you don't mention, although it could emerge from the scenario you describe, is a pre-election pact between the Tories and Reform, as sort-of happened in 2019. The Tories got the better of it then, so Reform might demand - and get - the Tories to stand down for them in some places... Again, I don't see this as a likely scenario, but as with 2019 I see Farage etc. as being people who will ultimately bottle it and rather than bring the Tories down with them while they scoop up a handful of seats at best would rather see a larger contingent of Tories returned to Parliament than Labour do even better.
I would not believe that Reform could outpoll the Tories unless itself, then called the Brexit Party had not done so in the last EU elections. Of course the turnout is a lot lower in those and their vote was inflated in the aftermath of the Referendum and with Parliament unable to agree any version of a European or non European future. In addition, they had Fromage as the Pied Piper.
In such a scenario, the splitting of a shrunken right wing rump would end in extremely few seats going to either party and it could be either a long spell in opposition or curtains to the Tories as a party of power. At some point they would realise that under FPTP voting they would have to merge, as parties of the same name did in Canada, also under FPTP. This would be an Internationally rehearsed scenario ( Book: Revolt on the right)
Another scenario would be that the few remaining tories, punished by the cruel hand of FPTP voting with thinly spread voters totalling around 20%, join ReformUK in calling for PR voting, because it's not fair to us small parties. Oh the irony!
I don't know if Nick heard the latest poll before now, but in one, Tories down to 19% and ReformUK up to 15%. This reminds me a little of Labour and the SDP/Liberal Alliance in the early 80's both were on about 27-28% in '83 a much high figure but under FPTP, the SDP/LIBs won about 19 seats and Labour 100 odd. Neither were in any position to win, despite the terrible home grown Thatcher Minford recession and a second at the end of the decade, with the Tories not being ousted until Lamont's ERM DM debacle led to Blair's '97 landslide. Split polling will keep the right out too, but I expect they will subsume or merge and be back blaming Labour for this mess in about '28-29.