This week in Brexitland, March 21, 2024
What would happen if Reform overtook the Tories in the polls? Here’s how a certain scenario could unfold that would end with permanent political change in Britain
What follows explores a hypothetical situation, nothing more. Could Reform start polling higher than the Conservative party, not once but consistently, in the run up to the general election? I would no longer say no chance. Things are starting to go so badly for Rishi Sunak that there is no floor (except, I suppose, zero percent in the polls, leading to zero seats). But Reform have a ways to go before we get to this point - or a better way to look at it is, the Tories have further to sink before that’s something we see happen.
Without some major intervention from Nigel Farage, there is still no chance of this taking place at all. All right, not no chance - again, Sunak has no floor - but it’s extremely slim. Reform needs some star power and Richard Tice is well, I don’t want to throw stones here, but he absolutely sucks at politics. He has the charisma of days old roadkill. But if Farage becomes leader again or whatever it takes to make him the frontman of the whole operation, then it’s game on.
This is how I see it all unravelling: Farage makes a big speech talking about his return to “frontline” politics. It might be in his interests to snag a couple of Tory MPs to defect at the exact same press conference. There’s some low hanging fruit out there - fruit being the operative word here - that would probably make the jump in those circumstances. If he’s standing next to at least two MPs who were very recently Tories, he’s off to a banging re-start.
Large portions of the right-wing press might jump ship at this point and row in behind Reform, seeing the Tories as a sinking ship. Farage gets a lot of coverage and the idea of Reform overtaking the Conservatives in the polls starts to get written about with regularity. Another Tory MP defects. Then another.
The timing of this is an interesting factor. The May local elections will be a massive bomb going off underneath the Tories - but it also works the other way, in that it’s hard to see Reform picking up a lot of seats themselves at the locals. What that does to the momentum of this Reform juggernaut is a complicating factor.
Whenever this scenario unfolds, let’s say we finally get a People Polling poll that puts Reform one point ahead of the Tories. This would then be talked about ad nauseam in Westminster, on all the radio shows, podcasts and newspapers, particularly as we have a zombie government that’s doing nothing other than trying to get four people on the most expensive flights to east Africa in the history of air travel. There’s nothing else happening, so the poll crossover would get massive coverage.
Of course, lots of commentators would write this poll off as a blip, an outlier. But then let’s say YouGov has Reform a point ahead of the Tories as well, maybe even two points ahead - and then proper panic sets in. Several more Tory MPs defect, bringing Reform’s numbers up to double digits. Farage gets even more publicity, the right leaning newspapers lean even more in his direction, there is an undeniable momentum to this whole thing now.
Of course, where this scenario ultimately would end is with a massive Labour majority in the House of Commons, the Tories obliterated, possibly permanently. Brexit will have killed the Conservative party for real. That’s partially an argument for why it probably won’t happen - but it still can’t be dismissed completely. Watch out for Farage, Tory to Reform defections - and those Reform and Tory national polling figures, inching ever closer to one another.
Thanks for reading. If you haven’t subscribed already, please do, and I’ll be back next week with the worst of Brexit.
I struggle to see what benefit Farage would obtain in being the front man for Reform UK. He rather seems to want to be a gadfly popping into and out of view at various right wing events. In this role, he gets all the benefit of his undue publicity and notoriety, without having the exert any significant amount of effort. I suspect that he rightly perceives leading any contingent of MPs as simply too much hard work, and thus will not engage in the scenario Nick posits.
From the National Front to the BNP to UKIP, we’ve always had fringe far-right maniacs in this country. Now, however, backed by the rising tide of right-wing populists around the world, these extremists have reached terrifying new heights, becoming increasingly relevant even in mainstream political debate.
The screenshot below, taken from Reform UK’s twitter page today, shows the party’s plans to properly “stop the boats”. Taking this Conservative government’s own Brexit-crazed immigration language right out of Sunak’s mouth, they’re pushing even further in favour of reducing our rights and silencing the majority to advance their fringe politics.
Only Reform UK will
STOP THE BOATS
I
Declare National Security threat
2
Leave ECHR
3 Zero illegals will resettle in the UK
4 New Dept. of Immigration staffed by
believers
Offshore processing centres in British
Overseas Territories
6
Pick up and take back to France
REFORM
UK
To Brexit parts
Let's
Save
Britain
Aside from the obvious, that immigration is not really anything close to a national security threat (even according to the Conservatives), that the ECHR protects our rights, and that number six would possibly require a declaration of war on France, we’re paying particular attention to point number four. The idea of a party officially calling to staff a government department with “believers” would be better placed in Soviet Russia, Nazi Germany, or Confederate America.
It’s reminiscent of Trump’s Project 2025, the MAGA movement’s ambition to forcibly convert America into a paradise for bigoted, immigrant-hating libertarians and religious zealots. The plot hinges on re-staffing government departments across the board, from housing to foreign affairs to the treasury, with loyal Trump supporters that shoot first and ask questions later (or never). They envision a government of loyalty and ideological purity, not of democracy and consensus.
It’s no coincidence that Reform is following a similar path, given their obvious financial and media ties to the Trump campaign (Farage himself even spoke to US Republicans at CPAC earlier this year).
Unlike in the States, the concern is not that Reform UK has any serious chance of winning the next general election. Instead – much as the MAGA movement did in 2016 – they’re carving their way into the existing political establishment. Increasingly, they’re framing the debates, setting the tone, and swaying former Conservatives to join their crusade.
Even if the Conservatives are voted out at the upcoming election, this will all be churning away in opposition. What will mutate next on the right side of the political aisle – especially if Trump wins in November and Project 2025 is realised – may very well drag us into an Orwellian abyss in 2029 should the next government fail to protect us.
Fundamentally, our movement is about thinking ahead to 2029, understanding the glaring loopholes that extremists can leverage to dismantle democracy. Everything Open Britain does is about reducing the possibility of falling into that authoritarian abyss. It may seem unlikely, but it can happen here – especially if we don’t take these threats seriously.
We have a real plan to get democracy back on track. Together, we can protect the country from the right-wing fanatics who would abuse a broken system for power. We can build something resilient and fit for the 21st century, where our voices are heard and those with unpopular views are relegated to the fringe where they belong. The clock is ticking, however. We need to act before it’s too late.
Yours,
The Open Britain Team