"Having stronger hoovers is not going to make up for the loss of opportunity that Brexit has created..."
The EU directive to limit power and rate efficiency in consumer devices such as fridges and hoovers was intended to drive up efficiency so consumers could see what the most energy efficient products were before they bought them. It caused manufacturers to improve efficiency and save everyone's energy to reduce bills and help the environment. It pushed consumers to pick the most efficient design. In hoovers it created more suction for less cost and is a popular governmental intervention measure.
By contrast, the Brexit supporting Dyson hoovers, moved the manufacturing operation from the UK to Malaysia, just after being held up by the Leave Lot as an example of post EU British Industry. These overpriced brittle plastic pieces of junk (£350) ironically failed to pull straw out of a carpet after a local barn dance. The Publicans went into town and bought he cheapest Henry Hoover (£89) with metal body, which completed the job.
Thank you for this interesting post. I also have sympathy with the commenters pointing out that not all EU decision-makers may be unconditionally delighted to welcome the UK (or whatever is left of it) back at a future date. I think it's worth noting a couple of other things:
* None of us are ever going to go back to 2016. Just as the UK has moved on in the last six years, so have the EU 27, and the challenges and opportunities are different. External pressures including the war in Ukraine, migration and the economic effects of globalisation are going to shape how the EU develops, and where its future priorities are.
* Similarly, the EU has unresolved internal tensions, including but not limited to the rise of authoritarianism in Poland and Hungary, economic disparities between the south and the north, different stances on trade/protectionism, the role of the state and the balances between nation states and European institutions. I suspect attitudes to the UK rejoining will in part depend on how powerful players think the UK will shift the balances on such questions.
This is one of the more convincing analyses supporting a future decision to rejoin the EU in some way. I still believe that it will most likely be limited to rejoining the Single Market and Customs Union, and will not include rejoining the EU as a political entity.
I agree with all the reasons Chris Grey has given in his Brexit Blog that a precondition for this is clear, unambiguous support for rejoining from both Labour and the Conservatives in a general election campaign. The Tories are at least a decade from accepting that it is in the best interests of the nation to rejoin the SM/CU. They will have to be completely remade to agree to rejoin the EU itself.
The EU will be extremely leery of agreeing to any move of the UK to rejoin anything as long as the Conservatives have not explicitly tied themselves to rejoining as a policy. Why allow an extremely difficult former member to rejoin if it can all be undone five or ten years later?
There is no evidence from the EU that they would not welcome the return of the UK - as Guy Verhofstadt makes clear. Furthermore, the disastrous Brexit experience combined with demographics makes any future "Brexit 2" highly unlikely and certainly unrealistic.
Perhaps. But Verhofstadt is only one voice (admittedly a powerful one) in the European Parliament. There are 27 member states, each with a veto for the admission of any new member. It will require some significant acts of contrition from the UK for some of those members to agree.
Currently, many of those in the UK with a positive opinion of rejoining seem to believe it is merely a matter of the UK deciding to do so to make it happen. I believe that is simplistically overoptimistic. I believe there will be 27 finely argued assessments of the political risk vs benefit that will be fed into the European Council meeting where a final decision will be rendered. None of the member states wants to go through Brexit redux, so there will need to be some strong assurances from the UK side for that to proceed.
"There is no evidence from the EU that they would not welcome the return of the UK"
What evidence would you expect?
The EU member states have just spent billions erecting the infrastructure and negotiating for the changes required by the UK's decision for Brexit. Can you believe that they'll just turn around for more negotiations in order to dismantle all these barriers again because the UK finds that Brexit works exactly as predicted and doesn't like the consequences?
I can't. Not in the next few years and certainly not as long as the UK has a political system which allows major constitutional changes such Brexit or Brentry on a simple majority. Most countries have a constitution which requires super-majorities for such decisions. The UK might be proud of the fact that it doesn't but that makes it a rather unreliable future partner for the EU.
You are forgetting that the simple majority referendum was in fact Advisory. The EU are very well aware that the British people were effectively shoehorned out of the EU against their will - and moreover there is now a strong evidence of a sustained majority who want to re-join in the EU. This situation can only end one way.
I am not forgetting that but am discounting it as irrelevant wrt any UK join aspirations.
The EU and its member states are as you say well aware but their duty is not to right a wrong against the UK citizens, their duty is to their own citizens. The UK has been so far from stable during the last six years that it would be irresponsible of the EU to seriously consider an application for the next few years.
And don't forget the treaty-breaking legislation against the EU, the Internal Market Bill (which was abandoned) and the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill. The fact that the UK parliament will actually vote for such abominations must have been a real shock to any EU legislator.
I think this is precisely right. Whatever the legal status of the way the advisory referendum was made effective by Cameron promising to "abide by its results", it's basically not the EU's business how our internal democracy works, it's our business to fix it to whatever extent is necessary to reassure the EU countries that rejoining is our settled will now, and that it can't be easily undone the same way it happened in 2016.
All irrelevant once this government and the offending politicians are out of power. You seem to forget that we were members of the EEC from 1973 and before that EFTA from 1960 - so clearly our heritage and proper place is at the heart of Europe. 2016 was a freak result which was then exploited by rogue political and media elements - a shameful episode indeed, but one which the EU can clearly understand.
"All irrelevant once this government and the offending politicians are out of power. "
No, it's not. The UK has seen fit to parade the peculiarities and frailties of its political system before the world and to interested and sometimes shocked EU audiences. The first question a PM knocking on the EU's door should be prepared for is: "What guarantees can you give us that a Brexit won't happen again after the next election?" He would have to answer "none".
I was very much on the Remainers side until the EU parliament election in 2019. Then I gave up on the UK being a close associate to the EU as even hopeful Remainers apparently couldn't be bothered to vote. Brexit was not due to a one-off in 2016, it was a process in which the UK government, parliament, electorate, and press failed time and again for years.
Your point about EFTA is not quite convincing. The UK was a founding member and then abandoned its new allies for the EEC (EFTA-Brexit, so to say) as it would have to abandon Australia and New Zealand again if it were to join the EU.
I think the UK needs to put its own house in order before applying. Getting rid of FPTP and writing a concise constitution might be helpful, for example, a requirement for a super-majority for constitutional changes. If you are serious about joining you might also want to check lut the Copenhagen criteria which list the formal criteria any applicant has to comply with. I can't imagine that FPTP will be accepted.
The belief that the EU forced a reluctant UK to ban powerful vacuum cleaners is very much a Euro myth. Many of the best vacuum cleaners already complied with the new EU standards and so it was only inefficient vacuum cleaners that were banned. Moreover, the UK government very much supported the reduction in maximum wattage. Indeed, the UK government wanted the EU to go faster, so it could be argued that the EU prevented the UK from reducing the maximum wattage as quickly as it wanted to.
Husband and I came to visit the UK from Italy two weeks before the Referendum ( which we couldn't vote iin ...hah democracy ....although our lives would be badly affected). Driving around Middle England we stumbled into a village community centre cafe instead of the selection of American chain cafes on the High Street. Packed full of old ladies, average age 80 , all in a dither over the upcoming Referendum. 'We don't know which way to vote they bleated in unison at us as we settled round the big communal table So we set to on a two wom/man mission to state our case. 'But my son says blah blah blah and Edith is worried about her pension and Doris says there will be a better health service. Every trick in the Leave catalogue flying round. Utterly bewilderd and quite upset they had been put into this dilemma. We left after half an hour, depressed knowing they would all vote to leave .....to be on the safe side they said because it can do no harm if they were being promised so many good things. So there were ten votes aiming to disrupt my life.. Pathetic and criminal.
The default option was probably considered as Leave, since there was a natural assumption that, whatever the outcome, the government of the day would always act in the nation's best interest in the actual implementation of Brexit. Of course, that is exactly what hasn't happened.
The historian, Michael Wood, has made a similar point about fake Brexit nostalgia - having more to do with feel-good films ( eg The Great Escape) than any real experience of war itself.
I stand to be corrected, but also understand the surviving war time generations (b 1915-1930) mainly voted Remain (?)
I'm not sure if there are hard data about that generation but I think you may be right. My own impression from posted commentary has been that those who actually experienced the (horror of) war can see the value of the EU. It's hose who weren't there but were relatively close to it time that feel "Brexit nostalgia".
My favourite image of our present state is the lady who enjoyed a blitz simulation, eg air raid shelters, because everyone was so happy then, presumably except my grandad who lost his eldest son.
I have only one war related memory, of walking down our street in a great line, shoulder to shoulder , chanting "we won the war", and in my case wondering what that was all about. But by the time we'd flown with Braddock, in some cases into the 1960's , we knew every little detail, except of course the ones that mattered most.
I only hope that young people have something left to inherit once those who think they remember WW2 have passed on.
"The word is “sehnsucht,” and it roughly means an inconsolable yearning or wistful longing for something one cannot explain or does not know. When I came upon this word, I was relieved to find such a concise way of describing this nearly incommunicable feeling."
Many thanks, this is a beacon of hope over a dark ocean.
I do get that Starmer needs to be careful, but wish he would at least stop saying things that are patently untrue like "being in the single market wouldn't boost growth". We know he doesn't believe that himself and we need authenticity in our leaders.
The frailties of the UK system have always been apparent to me - all the more reason why we are stronger and more stable as part of the EU. Of course I would like to see a proper super majority referendum rule - as well as a four nation lock. But the political reality is we now probably have to have another ADVISORY simple majority referendum in order to mirror/equalise the 2016 vote. (It worked perfectly okay in 1974.) FPTP has now been gamed by "parties within parties" (like the ERG and Momentum), and therefore has to be reformed/replaced. If the EU want to nudge us down this road - fine.
But I'm afraid in your ideological zeal you are failing to see the big picture - and talk of "guarantees" is completely ridiculous - unless you are buying a washing machine. And if you didn't vote in 2016, you can hardly be called a "remainer" : But I think you need another dose of reality here - many people simply didn't feel they understood the issues or just naturally assumed that whatever the result the government of the day would act in the country's best interests - and in particular economic interests. Of course, now they know different.
"But I'm afraid in your ideological zeal you are failing to see the big picture - and talk of "guarantees" is completely ridiculous"
What "ideological zeal" if I may ask? That I think that FPTP and the lack of a codified constitution have played a major role in Brexit? Perhaps you could quote from my comments?
As for guarantees: Most other countries with a constitution require at least a 60% majority for major changes such as Brexit. The UK cannot even offer that. Your FPTP system also enables extreme governments elected by a minority to govern with an absolute majority in parliament.
Have you noticed that you haven't answered any of my points regarding what the EU might require to admit the UK?
As I said earlier, the EU and the member states have a responsibility towards their own citizens. They have spent billions on the waste of money Brexit was always known to be, have wasted years and plenty of political energy on Brexit, and now you want them to welcome the UK back out of pity because the Brits misunderstood? Or are misunderstood or perhaps because they mistakenly and repeatedly elected known liars?
The important issue is that you are attempting to second guess the EU - but you can't possibly know the answers to these questions. The reality is that, just as in the 1960's, the UK will, one way or another, end up re-applying to join the SM or EU or both. My guess is this will happen sooner than many think due to the huge economic and political forces which Brexit is only just beginning to unfold. We will then see how quick this process takes. Always follow the money.
The word is "Bloedsinn" ... nonsense. I am in my mid-80s. I was born in Vienna and have lived most of my life in the US and Canada. I view none of my life prior to the early 1950s with nostalgia.
Interesting - but it's also the case that something like 70% of young Scots under 30 want independence. When Gen Alpha (ingenious coining) get to be heard, the UK will probably not exist.
Great analysis as always, both realistic and depressing. This nostalgia is also forward-facing, as Brexiters push the idea that "at some future time" (tbd of course), we'll get back to some imaginary past.
I'd like to add an observation of a symmetrical emotion in some Remainers – although currently a nostalgia for real benefits (as opposed to Brexiter nostalgia for false memories).
I agree that younger generations don't care about Brexiter nostalgia, and I suggest this also may apply to Remainer nostalgia. The young will form their own view as, hopefully correctly evaluating the benefits and costs of whatever re-joining options are available at that time. In the interim, we have to keep shining a light on today's reality.
Agreeing with earlier comments, the time to this decision may be shortened by dramatic events. I'm not sure I want to wish for such events, but looking forward to getting out of this hellhole asap.
"Having stronger hoovers is not going to make up for the loss of opportunity that Brexit has created..."
The EU directive to limit power and rate efficiency in consumer devices such as fridges and hoovers was intended to drive up efficiency so consumers could see what the most energy efficient products were before they bought them. It caused manufacturers to improve efficiency and save everyone's energy to reduce bills and help the environment. It pushed consumers to pick the most efficient design. In hoovers it created more suction for less cost and is a popular governmental intervention measure.
By contrast, the Brexit supporting Dyson hoovers, moved the manufacturing operation from the UK to Malaysia, just after being held up by the Leave Lot as an example of post EU British Industry. These overpriced brittle plastic pieces of junk (£350) ironically failed to pull straw out of a carpet after a local barn dance. The Publicans went into town and bought he cheapest Henry Hoover (£89) with metal body, which completed the job.
I offer "Einbildungsrückwendungswahn".
conceit regression delusion. Works for me
Thank you for this interesting post. I also have sympathy with the commenters pointing out that not all EU decision-makers may be unconditionally delighted to welcome the UK (or whatever is left of it) back at a future date. I think it's worth noting a couple of other things:
* None of us are ever going to go back to 2016. Just as the UK has moved on in the last six years, so have the EU 27, and the challenges and opportunities are different. External pressures including the war in Ukraine, migration and the economic effects of globalisation are going to shape how the EU develops, and where its future priorities are.
* Similarly, the EU has unresolved internal tensions, including but not limited to the rise of authoritarianism in Poland and Hungary, economic disparities between the south and the north, different stances on trade/protectionism, the role of the state and the balances between nation states and European institutions. I suspect attitudes to the UK rejoining will in part depend on how powerful players think the UK will shift the balances on such questions.
This is one of the more convincing analyses supporting a future decision to rejoin the EU in some way. I still believe that it will most likely be limited to rejoining the Single Market and Customs Union, and will not include rejoining the EU as a political entity.
I agree with all the reasons Chris Grey has given in his Brexit Blog that a precondition for this is clear, unambiguous support for rejoining from both Labour and the Conservatives in a general election campaign. The Tories are at least a decade from accepting that it is in the best interests of the nation to rejoin the SM/CU. They will have to be completely remade to agree to rejoin the EU itself.
The EU will be extremely leery of agreeing to any move of the UK to rejoin anything as long as the Conservatives have not explicitly tied themselves to rejoining as a policy. Why allow an extremely difficult former member to rejoin if it can all be undone five or ten years later?
There is no evidence from the EU that they would not welcome the return of the UK - as Guy Verhofstadt makes clear. Furthermore, the disastrous Brexit experience combined with demographics makes any future "Brexit 2" highly unlikely and certainly unrealistic.
Perhaps. But Verhofstadt is only one voice (admittedly a powerful one) in the European Parliament. There are 27 member states, each with a veto for the admission of any new member. It will require some significant acts of contrition from the UK for some of those members to agree.
Currently, many of those in the UK with a positive opinion of rejoining seem to believe it is merely a matter of the UK deciding to do so to make it happen. I believe that is simplistically overoptimistic. I believe there will be 27 finely argued assessments of the political risk vs benefit that will be fed into the European Council meeting where a final decision will be rendered. None of the member states wants to go through Brexit redux, so there will need to be some strong assurances from the UK side for that to proceed.
But time will tell, as it always does.
"There is no evidence from the EU that they would not welcome the return of the UK"
What evidence would you expect?
The EU member states have just spent billions erecting the infrastructure and negotiating for the changes required by the UK's decision for Brexit. Can you believe that they'll just turn around for more negotiations in order to dismantle all these barriers again because the UK finds that Brexit works exactly as predicted and doesn't like the consequences?
I can't. Not in the next few years and certainly not as long as the UK has a political system which allows major constitutional changes such Brexit or Brentry on a simple majority. Most countries have a constitution which requires super-majorities for such decisions. The UK might be proud of the fact that it doesn't but that makes it a rather unreliable future partner for the EU.
You are forgetting that the simple majority referendum was in fact Advisory. The EU are very well aware that the British people were effectively shoehorned out of the EU against their will - and moreover there is now a strong evidence of a sustained majority who want to re-join in the EU. This situation can only end one way.
I am not forgetting that but am discounting it as irrelevant wrt any UK join aspirations.
The EU and its member states are as you say well aware but their duty is not to right a wrong against the UK citizens, their duty is to their own citizens. The UK has been so far from stable during the last six years that it would be irresponsible of the EU to seriously consider an application for the next few years.
And don't forget the treaty-breaking legislation against the EU, the Internal Market Bill (which was abandoned) and the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill. The fact that the UK parliament will actually vote for such abominations must have been a real shock to any EU legislator.
I think this is precisely right. Whatever the legal status of the way the advisory referendum was made effective by Cameron promising to "abide by its results", it's basically not the EU's business how our internal democracy works, it's our business to fix it to whatever extent is necessary to reassure the EU countries that rejoining is our settled will now, and that it can't be easily undone the same way it happened in 2016.
All irrelevant once this government and the offending politicians are out of power. You seem to forget that we were members of the EEC from 1973 and before that EFTA from 1960 - so clearly our heritage and proper place is at the heart of Europe. 2016 was a freak result which was then exploited by rogue political and media elements - a shameful episode indeed, but one which the EU can clearly understand.
"All irrelevant once this government and the offending politicians are out of power. "
No, it's not. The UK has seen fit to parade the peculiarities and frailties of its political system before the world and to interested and sometimes shocked EU audiences. The first question a PM knocking on the EU's door should be prepared for is: "What guarantees can you give us that a Brexit won't happen again after the next election?" He would have to answer "none".
I was very much on the Remainers side until the EU parliament election in 2019. Then I gave up on the UK being a close associate to the EU as even hopeful Remainers apparently couldn't be bothered to vote. Brexit was not due to a one-off in 2016, it was a process in which the UK government, parliament, electorate, and press failed time and again for years.
Your point about EFTA is not quite convincing. The UK was a founding member and then abandoned its new allies for the EEC (EFTA-Brexit, so to say) as it would have to abandon Australia and New Zealand again if it were to join the EU.
I think the UK needs to put its own house in order before applying. Getting rid of FPTP and writing a concise constitution might be helpful, for example, a requirement for a super-majority for constitutional changes. If you are serious about joining you might also want to check lut the Copenhagen criteria which list the formal criteria any applicant has to comply with. I can't imagine that FPTP will be accepted.
The belief that the EU forced a reluctant UK to ban powerful vacuum cleaners is very much a Euro myth. Many of the best vacuum cleaners already complied with the new EU standards and so it was only inefficient vacuum cleaners that were banned. Moreover, the UK government very much supported the reduction in maximum wattage. Indeed, the UK government wanted the EU to go faster, so it could be argued that the EU prevented the UK from reducing the maximum wattage as quickly as it wanted to.
Husband and I came to visit the UK from Italy two weeks before the Referendum ( which we couldn't vote iin ...hah democracy ....although our lives would be badly affected). Driving around Middle England we stumbled into a village community centre cafe instead of the selection of American chain cafes on the High Street. Packed full of old ladies, average age 80 , all in a dither over the upcoming Referendum. 'We don't know which way to vote they bleated in unison at us as we settled round the big communal table So we set to on a two wom/man mission to state our case. 'But my son says blah blah blah and Edith is worried about her pension and Doris says there will be a better health service. Every trick in the Leave catalogue flying round. Utterly bewilderd and quite upset they had been put into this dilemma. We left after half an hour, depressed knowing they would all vote to leave .....to be on the safe side they said because it can do no harm if they were being promised so many good things. So there were ten votes aiming to disrupt my life.. Pathetic and criminal.
The default option was probably considered as Leave, since there was a natural assumption that, whatever the outcome, the government of the day would always act in the nation's best interest in the actual implementation of Brexit. Of course, that is exactly what hasn't happened.
The historian, Michael Wood, has made a similar point about fake Brexit nostalgia - having more to do with feel-good films ( eg The Great Escape) than any real experience of war itself.
I stand to be corrected, but also understand the surviving war time generations (b 1915-1930) mainly voted Remain (?)
I'm not sure if there are hard data about that generation but I think you may be right. My own impression from posted commentary has been that those who actually experienced the (horror of) war can see the value of the EU. It's hose who weren't there but were relatively close to it time that feel "Brexit nostalgia".
I am sure you can make something out of this: “Das Gefühl der Sehnsucht nach etwas, das du nie hattest.”
My favourite image of our present state is the lady who enjoyed a blitz simulation, eg air raid shelters, because everyone was so happy then, presumably except my grandad who lost his eldest son.
I have only one war related memory, of walking down our street in a great line, shoulder to shoulder , chanting "we won the war", and in my case wondering what that was all about. But by the time we'd flown with Braddock, in some cases into the 1960's , we knew every little detail, except of course the ones that mattered most.
I only hope that young people have something left to inherit once those who think they remember WW2 have passed on.
From Google:
"The word is “sehnsucht,” and it roughly means an inconsolable yearning or wistful longing for something one cannot explain or does not know. When I came upon this word, I was relieved to find such a concise way of describing this nearly incommunicable feeling."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sehnsucht
Many thanks, this is a beacon of hope over a dark ocean.
I do get that Starmer needs to be careful, but wish he would at least stop saying things that are patently untrue like "being in the single market wouldn't boost growth". We know he doesn't believe that himself and we need authenticity in our leaders.
Excellent article once again.
A word has not been invented to describe such insanity.
The frailties of the UK system have always been apparent to me - all the more reason why we are stronger and more stable as part of the EU. Of course I would like to see a proper super majority referendum rule - as well as a four nation lock. But the political reality is we now probably have to have another ADVISORY simple majority referendum in order to mirror/equalise the 2016 vote. (It worked perfectly okay in 1974.) FPTP has now been gamed by "parties within parties" (like the ERG and Momentum), and therefore has to be reformed/replaced. If the EU want to nudge us down this road - fine.
But I'm afraid in your ideological zeal you are failing to see the big picture - and talk of "guarantees" is completely ridiculous - unless you are buying a washing machine. And if you didn't vote in 2016, you can hardly be called a "remainer" : But I think you need another dose of reality here - many people simply didn't feel they understood the issues or just naturally assumed that whatever the result the government of the day would act in the country's best interests - and in particular economic interests. Of course, now they know different.
"But I'm afraid in your ideological zeal you are failing to see the big picture - and talk of "guarantees" is completely ridiculous"
What "ideological zeal" if I may ask? That I think that FPTP and the lack of a codified constitution have played a major role in Brexit? Perhaps you could quote from my comments?
As for guarantees: Most other countries with a constitution require at least a 60% majority for major changes such as Brexit. The UK cannot even offer that. Your FPTP system also enables extreme governments elected by a minority to govern with an absolute majority in parliament.
Have you noticed that you haven't answered any of my points regarding what the EU might require to admit the UK?
As I said earlier, the EU and the member states have a responsibility towards their own citizens. They have spent billions on the waste of money Brexit was always known to be, have wasted years and plenty of political energy on Brexit, and now you want them to welcome the UK back out of pity because the Brits misunderstood? Or are misunderstood or perhaps because they mistakenly and repeatedly elected known liars?
The important issue is that you are attempting to second guess the EU - but you can't possibly know the answers to these questions. The reality is that, just as in the 1960's, the UK will, one way or another, end up re-applying to join the SM or EU or both. My guess is this will happen sooner than many think due to the huge economic and political forces which Brexit is only just beginning to unfold. We will then see how quick this process takes. Always follow the money.
The above was meant as a reply to SD from Berlin (29 Dec) !
The word is "Bloedsinn" ... nonsense. I am in my mid-80s. I was born in Vienna and have lived most of my life in the US and Canada. I view none of my life prior to the early 1950s with nostalgia.
Interesting - but it's also the case that something like 70% of young Scots under 30 want independence. When Gen Alpha (ingenious coining) get to be heard, the UK will probably not exist.
Nick,
Great analysis as always, both realistic and depressing. This nostalgia is also forward-facing, as Brexiters push the idea that "at some future time" (tbd of course), we'll get back to some imaginary past.
I'd like to add an observation of a symmetrical emotion in some Remainers – although currently a nostalgia for real benefits (as opposed to Brexiter nostalgia for false memories).
I agree that younger generations don't care about Brexiter nostalgia, and I suggest this also may apply to Remainer nostalgia. The young will form their own view as, hopefully correctly evaluating the benefits and costs of whatever re-joining options are available at that time. In the interim, we have to keep shining a light on today's reality.
Agreeing with earlier comments, the time to this decision may be shortened by dramatic events. I'm not sure I want to wish for such events, but looking forward to getting out of this hellhole asap.
Happy Christmas!