The local elections in May, plus by elections in Scotland and Wales will be illustrative of what is happening at this early stage in the term.
The Farragists may be doing well in opinion polls as he swans around with endless free national publicity but what track record, experience or organisation do they have on the ground? They are 2nd in about 90 seats, but it's mostly a poor 2nd. They will need big, big swings to get up to where the LibDems are now. But look at the 5 MP's they have. They are clueless in Parliament, hardly ever there and not making any kind of impact. Nor is Farage handling his constituency queries properly, as he's too chicken to appear regularly in case he gets stabbed. He might find Clacton residents voting tactically to get him and others out. UKIP could never get one of their few MP's re-elected.
Nor have ReformUK got a serious costed manifesto. Their previous one called for smaller government and lower taxes while offering £50bn in extra spending. They are not a serious political party but are doing the Reform Party of Canada grift of taking various monies ( him through Farridge's company), while attempting to terrify the Conservative party and push them to the right, before an eventual merger or take over, with a change of name.
Marr was very right when he said that what would finish ReformUk and similar populists would be having the demands of government loaded upon them (and probably even just leading the opposition). They would be clueless and unable to deal with the relentless weight of work, disciplines and the need to choose between priorities. Farage only works sniping from the sidelines when he is not pulled up on his terrible and failing positions previously. If given the smallest amount of scrutiny, the man falls apart, walks out of studios, goes red with rage and boycotts organisations.
Populists sometimes get to power but it's always a disaster and they rarely get re-elected. Nor are Reform sweeping to power any time soon. meanwhile Farridge is 60 and looks at least his age. He smokes like a chimney and drinks like a fish, mostly wine. Apparently you can smell him coming up a corridor. Are we seriously to believe that he won't have retired to spend more time with his money when Reform get another go at a General Election and he is nearly 70?
Our country is coming out bottom, that is what bothers me. Out on our own, we need Europe as much as Europe needs us right now. What a time in history to have left our true home. And I have wanted a European Army for years, we cannot depend on the US and Ukraine needs us and we are helpless without the US. I am no neoliberal but nor am I a socialist. We are lacking talented politicians both in the UK and the EU to help deal with all the desperate problems we have.
While it is tempting to cheer the decline and possible demise of the Tories, the party who have ruined Britain, it is a case of being careful what you wish for.
The Tories sold the nations silver and privatising plus deregulation and light touch regulators have predictably brought most services low with prices very high, while failing to invest in water, the national grid, rail services and much more.
Not a single reservoir has been built by the regional monopoly water co's, but they have been sold off and the industry has been used as a cash siphon, mostly for overseas investors. When planners wanted to expand Cambridge for the tech sector, they realised it could not be done as there was not enough water capacity and that it would take about 20 years to build it. Nor was there the Varsity railway that once usefully connected Oxford, as it was torn up and the land sold in the 50's. Talk of replacing it with a road alongside, also connecting Milton Keynes has been just that, talk.
HS2 is another poorly planned missed opportunity, going nowhere but with plenty of bungs and never to connect the north with Eurotunnel.
Meanwhile, the UK has just 3 days gas storage, as the Tories closed most and relied on the spot market, the reason why prices spiked here in 2020-2, but not in France or Germany where storage and contractual prices sensibly remain.
Britain as treasure island for Corporations, Nimbys and the wealthy, has gas, electricity, buses and trains costing 2-2.5 times as much as on the continent, homes increasingly in shortage and unaffordable and wages having fallen in real terms since 2007, but labour in short supply across multiple industries.
Meanwhile another round of big de-industrialisation is happening. Britain will shortly be the only G7 country or major arms producers who do not manufacture primary steel, with vehicle production in severe decline and our last major domestic manufacturers, JLR, owned by Indians and severely in trouble. Privatised and overpriced UK energy being a major factor.
What public service is not now in crisis. Roads are in a terrible state. Farming has long been in crisis. Training and Modern Apprenticeships are not taken seriously and in many areas, what is on offer is no better than Coffee Barrista. There has been no industrial strategy from the Tories, other than the occasional bung to keep the likes of Nissan sweet and not criticising the compounding disaster of Brexit.
Starmer taking over this semi catastrophe for 6 months is hardly long enough to tickle the problems. But Farage is not offering solutions, just a grift. His bunch of mainly multi millionaire disaster capitalists can no more run a country than they can organise a genuine, serious political party. If by some fluke of our predictable electoral system and two main unpopular parties, Reform got in, they would be far worse, like the Tories failings on steroids. Farage & co even loudly enthused about Truss and her mini budget, but by the choice of the media, never need to explain their failings.
Reform are moving further left. This is going to force Starmer to adopt left wing policies. This is a good thing.
Reform cannot win an election. They simply don’t have enough candidates or funds. ( Elon Musk ? He’s going to want to see some returns on his investment )
Nick, you have been a hard critic of her from the beginning and seem to have validated. Could you summarise -possibly again- why you think she is unfit to lead HM opposition? Thank you
Sure. Two things formed my opinion and continue to inform of Kemi Badenoch: what I have heard about her directly from people who have worked with her in the past (former cabinet colleagues mostly) and what I have observed. Starting with the first: everyone I have ever spoken about Badenoch with who has worked with her in the past (and I can think of at least ten off the top of my head) has a negative opinion of her. "Kemi is lazy and arrogant", one of them said to me once, and that image of her has stuck in my head since. As to what I have observed: she appears to be of that clique of politicians within the Conservative party who were put on a pedestal and told they were brilliant, mostly from people who expected some return on investment in future. She has never had a hard time of it in politics and has effortlessly risen to the top. This means she has no real idea how difficult the job she now has now is, and therefore thinks she can bluff her way through (as she bluffed her way into the leadership of the Conservative party). She is bad at politics, partly because of being sheltered by her patrons within the Tory fold in this way, partly because my sense is that she isn't naturally very good at politics anyhow. I will close with this: the pamphlet upon which she based her leadership bid, "Conservatism in Crisis" is shockingly terrible, one of the worst political essays I have ever read (and I have read some awful ones in my time). It is confused and borders at times on Alex Jones territory. She obviously didn't write it, but I wonder at times if she even read it. Even if she flip through it, I find it unfathomable that she understood it, given it is impenetrable as anything other than an insane rant.
If one wants to find a siver lining in all of that is that the lazy entitlement at the Cs isn’t longer confined to causian males, but not entirely sure that actual positive
"2025 is a bad year for the Conservative party. They remain behind in the polls, probably for the whole twelve months, mostly coming in third behind Labour and Reform who trade the top spot now and then. The Tories are stuck below 25% - sometimes, below 20%."
Unfortunate to write this on a morning in which the Tories have come out on top in More in Common's latest poll!
They came out on top on 25%. One point ahead of both Labour and Reform. And this will probably one of their best polling performances of the year. So, yeah, 2025 will be a bad year for the Conservative party. Reform won't be polling 24% in six months time.
The local elections in May, plus by elections in Scotland and Wales will be illustrative of what is happening at this early stage in the term.
The Farragists may be doing well in opinion polls as he swans around with endless free national publicity but what track record, experience or organisation do they have on the ground? They are 2nd in about 90 seats, but it's mostly a poor 2nd. They will need big, big swings to get up to where the LibDems are now. But look at the 5 MP's they have. They are clueless in Parliament, hardly ever there and not making any kind of impact. Nor is Farage handling his constituency queries properly, as he's too chicken to appear regularly in case he gets stabbed. He might find Clacton residents voting tactically to get him and others out. UKIP could never get one of their few MP's re-elected.
Nor have ReformUK got a serious costed manifesto. Their previous one called for smaller government and lower taxes while offering £50bn in extra spending. They are not a serious political party but are doing the Reform Party of Canada grift of taking various monies ( him through Farridge's company), while attempting to terrify the Conservative party and push them to the right, before an eventual merger or take over, with a change of name.
Marr was very right when he said that what would finish ReformUk and similar populists would be having the demands of government loaded upon them (and probably even just leading the opposition). They would be clueless and unable to deal with the relentless weight of work, disciplines and the need to choose between priorities. Farage only works sniping from the sidelines when he is not pulled up on his terrible and failing positions previously. If given the smallest amount of scrutiny, the man falls apart, walks out of studios, goes red with rage and boycotts organisations.
Populists sometimes get to power but it's always a disaster and they rarely get re-elected. Nor are Reform sweeping to power any time soon. meanwhile Farridge is 60 and looks at least his age. He smokes like a chimney and drinks like a fish, mostly wine. Apparently you can smell him coming up a corridor. Are we seriously to believe that he won't have retired to spend more time with his money when Reform get another go at a General Election and he is nearly 70?
Our country is coming out bottom, that is what bothers me. Out on our own, we need Europe as much as Europe needs us right now. What a time in history to have left our true home. And I have wanted a European Army for years, we cannot depend on the US and Ukraine needs us and we are helpless without the US. I am no neoliberal but nor am I a socialist. We are lacking talented politicians both in the UK and the EU to help deal with all the desperate problems we have.
While it is tempting to cheer the decline and possible demise of the Tories, the party who have ruined Britain, it is a case of being careful what you wish for.
The Tories sold the nations silver and privatising plus deregulation and light touch regulators have predictably brought most services low with prices very high, while failing to invest in water, the national grid, rail services and much more.
Not a single reservoir has been built by the regional monopoly water co's, but they have been sold off and the industry has been used as a cash siphon, mostly for overseas investors. When planners wanted to expand Cambridge for the tech sector, they realised it could not be done as there was not enough water capacity and that it would take about 20 years to build it. Nor was there the Varsity railway that once usefully connected Oxford, as it was torn up and the land sold in the 50's. Talk of replacing it with a road alongside, also connecting Milton Keynes has been just that, talk.
HS2 is another poorly planned missed opportunity, going nowhere but with plenty of bungs and never to connect the north with Eurotunnel.
Meanwhile, the UK has just 3 days gas storage, as the Tories closed most and relied on the spot market, the reason why prices spiked here in 2020-2, but not in France or Germany where storage and contractual prices sensibly remain.
Britain as treasure island for Corporations, Nimbys and the wealthy, has gas, electricity, buses and trains costing 2-2.5 times as much as on the continent, homes increasingly in shortage and unaffordable and wages having fallen in real terms since 2007, but labour in short supply across multiple industries.
Meanwhile another round of big de-industrialisation is happening. Britain will shortly be the only G7 country or major arms producers who do not manufacture primary steel, with vehicle production in severe decline and our last major domestic manufacturers, JLR, owned by Indians and severely in trouble. Privatised and overpriced UK energy being a major factor.
What public service is not now in crisis. Roads are in a terrible state. Farming has long been in crisis. Training and Modern Apprenticeships are not taken seriously and in many areas, what is on offer is no better than Coffee Barrista. There has been no industrial strategy from the Tories, other than the occasional bung to keep the likes of Nissan sweet and not criticising the compounding disaster of Brexit.
Starmer taking over this semi catastrophe for 6 months is hardly long enough to tickle the problems. But Farage is not offering solutions, just a grift. His bunch of mainly multi millionaire disaster capitalists can no more run a country than they can organise a genuine, serious political party. If by some fluke of our predictable electoral system and two main unpopular parties, Reform got in, they would be far worse, like the Tories failings on steroids. Farage & co even loudly enthused about Truss and her mini budget, but by the choice of the media, never need to explain their failings.
Reform are moving further left. This is going to force Starmer to adopt left wing policies. This is a good thing.
Reform cannot win an election. They simply don’t have enough candidates or funds. ( Elon Musk ? He’s going to want to see some returns on his investment )
starmers biggest job is to keep the imf at bay, blame the torys for this
Nick, you have been a hard critic of her from the beginning and seem to have validated. Could you summarise -possibly again- why you think she is unfit to lead HM opposition? Thank you
Sure. Two things formed my opinion and continue to inform of Kemi Badenoch: what I have heard about her directly from people who have worked with her in the past (former cabinet colleagues mostly) and what I have observed. Starting with the first: everyone I have ever spoken about Badenoch with who has worked with her in the past (and I can think of at least ten off the top of my head) has a negative opinion of her. "Kemi is lazy and arrogant", one of them said to me once, and that image of her has stuck in my head since. As to what I have observed: she appears to be of that clique of politicians within the Conservative party who were put on a pedestal and told they were brilliant, mostly from people who expected some return on investment in future. She has never had a hard time of it in politics and has effortlessly risen to the top. This means she has no real idea how difficult the job she now has now is, and therefore thinks she can bluff her way through (as she bluffed her way into the leadership of the Conservative party). She is bad at politics, partly because of being sheltered by her patrons within the Tory fold in this way, partly because my sense is that she isn't naturally very good at politics anyhow. I will close with this: the pamphlet upon which she based her leadership bid, "Conservatism in Crisis" is shockingly terrible, one of the worst political essays I have ever read (and I have read some awful ones in my time). It is confused and borders at times on Alex Jones territory. She obviously didn't write it, but I wonder at times if she even read it. Even if she flip through it, I find it unfathomable that she understood it, given it is impenetrable as anything other than an insane rant.
Thanks Nick, a very detailed take down.
If one wants to find a siver lining in all of that is that the lazy entitlement at the Cs isn’t longer confined to causian males, but not entirely sure that actual positive
"2025 is a bad year for the Conservative party. They remain behind in the polls, probably for the whole twelve months, mostly coming in third behind Labour and Reform who trade the top spot now and then. The Tories are stuck below 25% - sometimes, below 20%."
Unfortunate to write this on a morning in which the Tories have come out on top in More in Common's latest poll!
They came out on top on 25%. One point ahead of both Labour and Reform. And this will probably one of their best polling performances of the year. So, yeah, 2025 will be a bad year for the Conservative party. Reform won't be polling 24% in six months time.
The 2 Opinion polls that count are 1st Yougov and second, IPSOS.