Neoliberal Centrist Dad, episode 11

The most likely trajectory for the Conservative party during this parliament goes like this

I haven’t written one of these for my free subscribers in about a month. There are several reasons for that. One is that it is difficult to know what to say about British politics at the moment; it’s in such a mess and everyone keeps doing silly things that are against the interests of both the country and their own political futures. The second reason is that I tend to lose subscribers every time I post and I know why that is. I used to write solely about Brexit here, namely about how Brexit had been a colossal mistake - that attracted an audience that is naturally to the left of me. Now that I’m writing about politics more widely, that gap between some of my subscribers and my own politics is becoming more apparent each time I send something out.

However, I urge you to tune into this one, however far to the left you consider yourself, because what happens to the Conservative party during this parliament will be massive in determining the future of British politics overall. And that includes our relationship with Europe, of course. A lot of you reading this might think, “Let the Conservative party die, who cares”, but I would oblige you to consider that what may follow in the wake of their political demise might be considerably worse.

What follows is what I believe the rest of this parliament looks like for the Tories. This isn’t a full-blown prediction - it’s what is very likely to happen to them if they don’t smarten up and finally figure out the bind that they’re in. Here’s a look into the near future….

2025 is a bad year for the Conservative party. They remain behind in the polls, probably for the whole twelve months, mostly coming in third behind Labour and Reform who trade the top spot now and then. The Tories are stuck below 25% - sometimes, below 20%. Either the local elections are a relatively minor disappointment or a major disaster for them, depending on how organised Reform can get on the ground - either way, at best you can say the Tories are stagnating, and given that means stagnating at 121 seats in the Commons, up against a Labour government not even on 30% in most polls taken this year, that’s brutal for them.

2026 comes, and with it another set of local elections and the Welsh Senedd elections. Both are a bloodbath for the Tories, with Reform badly outpacing them in Wales. Badenoch comes under huge pressure. Due to the new Tory leadership rules, she is harder to get rid of than leaders of the past, but across a terrible summer for the party, she eventually resigns, having served as leader less than two years.

What comes next is a moment that is truly existential for the Conservative and Unionist party. It will boil down to a simple question: Jenrick (who in early 2025, is essentially already in full campaign mode for this leadership contest) or not Jenrick? If Jenrick loses, we move onto a different timeline and I can’t tell you what happens next. Several possibilities would open up then, depending on the identity of that “not Jenrick” leader. If Jenrick does win - which I think is overwhelmingly likely - then it is easy to predict from there.

Jenrick would push the Tories even further to the right as leader. This would play right into Farage’s hands, as he would dearly love to have it seem like the Conservatives are the right-wing extremists, while he is the centre-right leader with his finger on the pulse of “real Britain”. If the Tories move further right, they will alienate even more of their natural base than they have already, leaving room open for Farage to reinvent himself as the “reasonable one”. Farage can move slightly to the centre and retain his hard right vote out of the cult of personality he has with that particular cohort, while the Tories moving further right will just lose them even more voters, while the hard right stays loyal to Farage (particularly if it looks like Reform will do better than the Tories at the next general election).

Starmer calls a general election in 2028 or waits until 2029, but what unfolds from there is the same either way: the entire campaign on all sides is based on the question, “Do you want Nigel Farage to be prime minister or do you not want that?” Both Labour and Reform would be united in pushing this as the narrative of the election campaign given it marginalises the Tories to an incredible degree. The question about Farage being PM is perfect for Reform since it presupposes that either Reform or Labour will form the next government, with the Tories nowhere to be seen (“A vote for the Conservatives is a wasted vote”) - the question is also perfect for Labour in that it presents them as the only option if you choose bland centrism and don’t want Farage’s populism to rule Britain. Starmer and his team could bet on Britain’s desire for small “c” conservatism to save them and they’d probably be right in doing so.

Labour most likely form the next government in this scenario, either with a much smaller majority than their current one, or staying in power in an hung parliament with the aid of the Lib Dems. Reform either wildly outperform and get into Downing Street, or at worst, become the official opposition. Farage is then official leader of His Majesty’s Opposition, giving him both an even bigger platform and the ability to look like the prime minister in waiting - and more importantly from his perspective, displacing the Conservative party as the natural party of the British right, changing UK politics forever.

The Lib Dems would hang onto what they have - maybe go up or down a few seats (not to mention probably holding the balance of power). The Greens, same story (minus the power bit). Perhaps a few of Corbyn’s bunch get lucky and nab a couple of constituencies from Labour. At best, the Tories remain pretty much where they are now - but much more likely, they lose even more seats, probably a lot more seats. They could even end up with less than 50.

It doesn’t have to be this way for the Tories. Yet this seems to be the path they are determined to take. Much like Badenoch becoming leader and then being found to be egregiously awful at the role was an entirely predictable sequence of events, so too is the scenario outlined above. I suppose time will tell what the Tories decide to do.