Morning/ I’m a white van driver from a hollowed out red brick Midlands town. Here’s a tale from my travels…I have so many.
A bunch of lads were helping me unload my van when radio news tannoyed something about Trump across their warehouse. As one they chanted “Trump, Trump, Trump” & two of them joined in a mock waltz with one shouting “Trump’s back…we can do as we fucking like!”
I’m not sure that the good people inside SW1 fully understand how many young men are energised by Trump’s victory. His behaviour (or more precisely the lack of consequences that result from it) legitimise their worst instincts & embolden them to say out loud what they’ve only been able to think…going back as far as their grandads.
Farage is so perfectly placed to tap into this. He has the traditional right wing press primed because he’s far better at doing the Trumpian schtick than Kemi Badenoch is ever going to be.
I was interested to read this from Helen Lewis….
“I would not be surprised if Reform overtake the Conservatives among young men. Looking at America, there’s clearly a market for populist, male-coded politics led by a charismatic caricature among Gen Z guys, and Nigel Farage is better placed to offer that in Britain than Kemi Badenoch. For young men, the Conservatives are the party of your grandparents who don’t think you should be able to own a house. Reform could be the two-fingers-up-at-the-scolds party they’re looking for.’
My only disagreement with HL is I don’t think this attraction will be restricted to young men.
When’s the next by-election? Then we’ll know.
Yours disillusioned (so far) with Labour & arming (metaphorically) against Reform
Agree 100%. This 👇🏻 is part of something I wrote & sent to local Labour councillor in naive hope that it might get sent up the food chain.
‘Post Trump we can either catastrophise or try to be constructive.
‘It seems to me that Trump’s nightmarish victory should & must shock Starmer & Labour into a complete reset on both how they govern & how they communicate.
‘They must find a better way to talk to all of us but it’s mission critical that they re-connect & ‘give agency’ to the left behind & not simply abandon them to populists.
‘The time for caution, triangulation & trying to please everyone is over &, if they carry on as they are, they will surely be swept away by an unholy alliance of Farage & the Tory right just as as Trump & his handlers have swamped US Democrats.
‘It’s now or never for conviction politics, bravery, honesty & openness. If Labour stands up for what is good & right I’m convinced there is a vast, silent & decent majority crying out to be inspired & give their votes to Labour.
‘It will also be rejected by many; but it’s long overdue that Labour stopped trying to please its enemies, drew a line in the sand & stood up for what is good, liberal & progressive in this world.
COMMUNICATIONS
They MUST become the Truth Tellers.
The myth that “they’re all the bloody same” is powerful, pervasive & spreading like Russian ivy. This lie & other misinformation are the populists’ most deadly weapons & create the space for ‘strongmen’ to present themselves as anti-establishment ‘men of the people’ fuelling anxiety & anger & offering impossibly slick & simple solutions to complex problems.
‘Labour must throw away the script, roll up their sleeves &, via a weekly Roosevelt style ‘Fireside Chat’ across all media, level with voters about the scale of the problems we face & the cost of fixing them.
‘Stand up to &/or ignore the Tory press. (Tell the BBC its funding will be increased if it drops ‘What The Papers Say’ feature! 😀)
‘Stop the bloody nagging.
‘Educate. Explain. Tell people what you’re going to do. Tell ‘em while you’re doing it. Tell ‘em you’ve done it. Talk TO people not ABOUT them. Celebrate success. Admit failure & apologise. Be human & normal. People might relate & begin to trust again.
‘Starmer may not be the best person to do this but he has some great communicators on the team in Rayner, Phillips & Streeting. Working always within the above messaging framework, they could really cut through & build loyalty.
STRATEGY
A/ Stress test every policy for effect on climate change & inflation. Minimising both must be their guiding lights.
B/ Have ‘stickability’. Authoritarians will slave for decades on projects like Brexit & ‘Right to Life’. Progressives assume they’ll win without those long, hard yards simply because what they believe is the right thing to do. That has to change.’
I've always been struck by what I heard on the wireless after Johnson had won his general election victory. They were interviewing a retired Welsh miner, who said that he had come up to London, for the first time in his life, to be outside the HoC as what he described as "the people's parliament" was sworn in. This phrase "the people's parliament" (as opposed to all the other parliaments I suppose), stayed with me, and I thought about what he meant, which was essentially that for the first time in his life there was a government and a ruling party which legitimised all the prejudices and unpleasant unsayable things that folk like this miner had always had and believed, but had never had permission to express before. It's all coming out now...
That was a very interesting comment Andy, however I do not see ReFUK sweeping to power any time soon. They love saying they are in 2nd place in 89 seats, similar to what the LibDems said before the previous general Election. However, the LibDems have a mountain of council seats and councils, with concentrations from West London, through the home counties, Oxfordshire and into the West country. They built this up over a long time and put paid agents in. They worked local issues and they earned every one of those 72 seats.
I don't see anything like the above with ReFUK, other than talk of doing it. They swan around in the national media, given endless amounts of major free publicity from The BBC ( Board run by right wing Tory donors ), with Kuhnsberg an embarrassing Tory stooge and personal friend of Johnson.
ReFUK may be 2nd in 89 seats but it is mostly a very poor second. They are only well positioned to win the seat in another 20 seats, which in the unlikely event they won all of them and kept the 5 they have now, that 25 seats would only give them clout in Parliament if the Tories were in 1st place in a hung parliament or with the tiniest and more precarious of majorities.
Lets not forget that Farage has terrible popularity numbers if you take into account negatives as well as positives. He's around the bottom compared to other significant figures. He's at best Marmite or more likely a turd rolled in icing sugar and glitter. That limits how far he can get. He may not even win his seat again, as he's never there and refuses to meet the public because he's chicken shit to do so.
Then look at the type of seats Farage might take. They are the disadvantaged angry mainly white people from small cities and big towns that have suffered more than most from Thatcher's Monetarism and de-industrialisation, where nothing was put in it's place, such as Stoke. Then there are the new townish places in parts of Essex ( e.g Romford) and north Kent where thousand of working class people were moved out after the war, now often racist pensioners. Many more of those racist pensioners from south and East London moved into declining seaside towns for cheap houses, such as Clacton. Romford was already a hive of activity for the far right, but there are only so many of these type of seats. Farage is not well placed to take traditional Tory Blue Wall seats where the LibDems did so well and could take another 20-25 without too much trouble,
This isn't to say that the Tory Party won't throw a wobbler and merge with Farage's lot in an attempt to survive in the top league, but it won't be from ReFUK seat strength any time soon. Ultimately, if you add up the votes from Labour, LibDems + Greens + SDLP & Alliance (N.I.) + SNP & Plaid and add 6 Independents now, compared to the Tories + ReFUK, + UKIP + DUP, the former have been significantly ahead in every election for decades, except in 2015. So a pure PR system probably would not put Farage into power either and not all of his support came from the right either.
Andy, Farage's lot do not have the ground game to win many seats. Even if they throw money at it, it's about experience too. They won't make leaders of the opposition, but the LIbDems might replace the Tories, coming through the middle of those two fighting each other. Of course whether the LibDems could sustain at that level is questionable. The right would need to reunite and have it's party gain trust and they have totally lost that. Nor are they re-building trust as they have not apologised or identified much of what went wrong. The Tories have lost the next GE, Labour could lose trust and still come first. The LibDems and Tories will be fighting for 2nd. Trump and his looming disasters will hammer Farage as they are so closely associated.
If there is a right wing merger, many moderate Tories will be put off and some ReFUK voters don't like the Tories either, so it will not be plain sailing whatever they do.
He won’t have it all his own for sure. For example he will have to resolve the disconnect between his own small state beliefs & fact that a large proportion of his natural support rely on the state in one way or another.
But I hold to my view that with money to persuade & time to organise the stars are aligning for him & he’ll be main opposition in one form or another at next GE.
LDs will never be more than third.
Time will tell in this era of constant churn & surprise.
This is how the LibDems could be second. They put paid agents in to cover 25 seats currently held by Tories with small majorities in Blue Wall seats, where they hold neighbouring seats and do the hard work and take them, with more council seats and councils taken in the interim. The Tories continue their decline, which appears likely and make no overall number gains. RefUK go up to 25 total from Labour and Tories. The electorate are very volatile, but this could be real. However, they may not be able to sustain 2nd place when the right eventually gets it's act together, but that could be at least 2 general elections time.
Farage's vehicles have previously failed to scale up - there is a question about whether Reform UK can build up sustained, sizable presences that allow them to win constituencies. I would note that Thanet DC, previously controlled by UKIP, has no Reform UK councillors at present.
There is also a massive dependency on Farage himself - he's already 60, is showing signs of being bored by the responsibilities of being an MP, and his vehicles have previously fallen apart when he's stepped back. No doubt, Johnson-style, the prospect of being PM would invigorate him, but there's a long time until the next General Election, and who knows what might change for him by then.
I suspect that Labour felt that they could tolerate the Reform UK threat in the 2024 General Election, rightly expecting they would mainly affect Conservative prospects. However, now that many Labour MPs have Reform in second place, I suspect they will be more exercised, given that the way of the world is that governing parties tend to lose support. So perhaps they will look at what worked in Barking against the BNP, and Thanet against UKIP, and think about how they fight the populist right successfully.
Given how decimated the Conservative local government presence has been in recent years, we should keep a close eye on whether the right-wing vote consolidates with them or Reform UK. I have a suspicion that however moribund local Conservative associations are, they remain more capable than Reform UK in most places, and more likely to be able to identify, field and support credible candidates.
The only disagreement I have is that Farage is broadly coming out with statements in support of Starmer more and more regularly. The only way that The British Far Right can combat Starmer is to move further left.
This is where Farage is going to win votes, not by moving further right.
Morning/ I’m a white van driver from a hollowed out red brick Midlands town. Here’s a tale from my travels…I have so many.
A bunch of lads were helping me unload my van when radio news tannoyed something about Trump across their warehouse. As one they chanted “Trump, Trump, Trump” & two of them joined in a mock waltz with one shouting “Trump’s back…we can do as we fucking like!”
I’m not sure that the good people inside SW1 fully understand how many young men are energised by Trump’s victory. His behaviour (or more precisely the lack of consequences that result from it) legitimise their worst instincts & embolden them to say out loud what they’ve only been able to think…going back as far as their grandads.
Farage is so perfectly placed to tap into this. He has the traditional right wing press primed because he’s far better at doing the Trumpian schtick than Kemi Badenoch is ever going to be.
I was interested to read this from Helen Lewis….
“I would not be surprised if Reform overtake the Conservatives among young men. Looking at America, there’s clearly a market for populist, male-coded politics led by a charismatic caricature among Gen Z guys, and Nigel Farage is better placed to offer that in Britain than Kemi Badenoch. For young men, the Conservatives are the party of your grandparents who don’t think you should be able to own a house. Reform could be the two-fingers-up-at-the-scolds party they’re looking for.’
My only disagreement with HL is I don’t think this attraction will be restricted to young men.
When’s the next by-election? Then we’ll know.
Yours disillusioned (so far) with Labour & arming (metaphorically) against Reform
Driver Andy
Hi Andy - thank you so much for this response, very interesting. Here's something I wrote about Trump's victory in relation to young men shortly after the US election (wonder if you agree with what I've said here): https://www.spiked-online.com/2024/11/11/take-it-from-a-metropolitan-liberal-we-are-why-trump-won/
Agree 100%. This 👇🏻 is part of something I wrote & sent to local Labour councillor in naive hope that it might get sent up the food chain.
‘Post Trump we can either catastrophise or try to be constructive.
‘It seems to me that Trump’s nightmarish victory should & must shock Starmer & Labour into a complete reset on both how they govern & how they communicate.
‘They must find a better way to talk to all of us but it’s mission critical that they re-connect & ‘give agency’ to the left behind & not simply abandon them to populists.
‘The time for caution, triangulation & trying to please everyone is over &, if they carry on as they are, they will surely be swept away by an unholy alliance of Farage & the Tory right just as as Trump & his handlers have swamped US Democrats.
‘It’s now or never for conviction politics, bravery, honesty & openness. If Labour stands up for what is good & right I’m convinced there is a vast, silent & decent majority crying out to be inspired & give their votes to Labour.
‘It will also be rejected by many; but it’s long overdue that Labour stopped trying to please its enemies, drew a line in the sand & stood up for what is good, liberal & progressive in this world.
COMMUNICATIONS
They MUST become the Truth Tellers.
The myth that “they’re all the bloody same” is powerful, pervasive & spreading like Russian ivy. This lie & other misinformation are the populists’ most deadly weapons & create the space for ‘strongmen’ to present themselves as anti-establishment ‘men of the people’ fuelling anxiety & anger & offering impossibly slick & simple solutions to complex problems.
‘Labour must throw away the script, roll up their sleeves &, via a weekly Roosevelt style ‘Fireside Chat’ across all media, level with voters about the scale of the problems we face & the cost of fixing them.
‘Stand up to &/or ignore the Tory press. (Tell the BBC its funding will be increased if it drops ‘What The Papers Say’ feature! 😀)
‘Stop the bloody nagging.
‘Educate. Explain. Tell people what you’re going to do. Tell ‘em while you’re doing it. Tell ‘em you’ve done it. Talk TO people not ABOUT them. Celebrate success. Admit failure & apologise. Be human & normal. People might relate & begin to trust again.
‘Starmer may not be the best person to do this but he has some great communicators on the team in Rayner, Phillips & Streeting. Working always within the above messaging framework, they could really cut through & build loyalty.
STRATEGY
A/ Stress test every policy for effect on climate change & inflation. Minimising both must be their guiding lights.
B/ Have ‘stickability’. Authoritarians will slave for decades on projects like Brexit & ‘Right to Life’. Progressives assume they’ll win without those long, hard yards simply because what they believe is the right thing to do. That has to change.’
Yours more in hope than expectation. 🤔
I've always been struck by what I heard on the wireless after Johnson had won his general election victory. They were interviewing a retired Welsh miner, who said that he had come up to London, for the first time in his life, to be outside the HoC as what he described as "the people's parliament" was sworn in. This phrase "the people's parliament" (as opposed to all the other parliaments I suppose), stayed with me, and I thought about what he meant, which was essentially that for the first time in his life there was a government and a ruling party which legitimised all the prejudices and unpleasant unsayable things that folk like this miner had always had and believed, but had never had permission to express before. It's all coming out now...
That was a very interesting comment Andy, however I do not see ReFUK sweeping to power any time soon. They love saying they are in 2nd place in 89 seats, similar to what the LibDems said before the previous general Election. However, the LibDems have a mountain of council seats and councils, with concentrations from West London, through the home counties, Oxfordshire and into the West country. They built this up over a long time and put paid agents in. They worked local issues and they earned every one of those 72 seats.
I don't see anything like the above with ReFUK, other than talk of doing it. They swan around in the national media, given endless amounts of major free publicity from The BBC ( Board run by right wing Tory donors ), with Kuhnsberg an embarrassing Tory stooge and personal friend of Johnson.
ReFUK may be 2nd in 89 seats but it is mostly a very poor second. They are only well positioned to win the seat in another 20 seats, which in the unlikely event they won all of them and kept the 5 they have now, that 25 seats would only give them clout in Parliament if the Tories were in 1st place in a hung parliament or with the tiniest and more precarious of majorities.
Lets not forget that Farage has terrible popularity numbers if you take into account negatives as well as positives. He's around the bottom compared to other significant figures. He's at best Marmite or more likely a turd rolled in icing sugar and glitter. That limits how far he can get. He may not even win his seat again, as he's never there and refuses to meet the public because he's chicken shit to do so.
Then look at the type of seats Farage might take. They are the disadvantaged angry mainly white people from small cities and big towns that have suffered more than most from Thatcher's Monetarism and de-industrialisation, where nothing was put in it's place, such as Stoke. Then there are the new townish places in parts of Essex ( e.g Romford) and north Kent where thousand of working class people were moved out after the war, now often racist pensioners. Many more of those racist pensioners from south and East London moved into declining seaside towns for cheap houses, such as Clacton. Romford was already a hive of activity for the far right, but there are only so many of these type of seats. Farage is not well placed to take traditional Tory Blue Wall seats where the LibDems did so well and could take another 20-25 without too much trouble,
This isn't to say that the Tory Party won't throw a wobbler and merge with Farage's lot in an attempt to survive in the top league, but it won't be from ReFUK seat strength any time soon. Ultimately, if you add up the votes from Labour, LibDems + Greens + SDLP & Alliance (N.I.) + SNP & Plaid and add 6 Independents now, compared to the Tories + ReFUK, + UKIP + DUP, the former have been significantly ahead in every election for decades, except in 2015. So a pure PR system probably would not put Farage into power either and not all of his support came from the right either.
Very interesting & considered response.
I don’t think they’ll take power. But I do think they’ll be main opposition next time around probably in some kind of merger with Tories.
This is Farage’s once in a lifetime opportunity
Andy, Farage's lot do not have the ground game to win many seats. Even if they throw money at it, it's about experience too. They won't make leaders of the opposition, but the LIbDems might replace the Tories, coming through the middle of those two fighting each other. Of course whether the LibDems could sustain at that level is questionable. The right would need to reunite and have it's party gain trust and they have totally lost that. Nor are they re-building trust as they have not apologised or identified much of what went wrong. The Tories have lost the next GE, Labour could lose trust and still come first. The LibDems and Tories will be fighting for 2nd. Trump and his looming disasters will hammer Farage as they are so closely associated.
If there is a right wing merger, many moderate Tories will be put off and some ReFUK voters don't like the Tories either, so it will not be plain sailing whatever they do.
He won’t have it all his own for sure. For example he will have to resolve the disconnect between his own small state beliefs & fact that a large proportion of his natural support rely on the state in one way or another.
But I hold to my view that with money to persuade & time to organise the stars are aligning for him & he’ll be main opposition in one form or another at next GE.
LDs will never be more than third.
Time will tell in this era of constant churn & surprise.
This is how the LibDems could be second. They put paid agents in to cover 25 seats currently held by Tories with small majorities in Blue Wall seats, where they hold neighbouring seats and do the hard work and take them, with more council seats and councils taken in the interim. The Tories continue their decline, which appears likely and make no overall number gains. RefUK go up to 25 total from Labour and Tories. The electorate are very volatile, but this could be real. However, they may not be able to sustain 2nd place when the right eventually gets it's act together, but that could be at least 2 general elections time.
Farage's vehicles have previously failed to scale up - there is a question about whether Reform UK can build up sustained, sizable presences that allow them to win constituencies. I would note that Thanet DC, previously controlled by UKIP, has no Reform UK councillors at present.
There is also a massive dependency on Farage himself - he's already 60, is showing signs of being bored by the responsibilities of being an MP, and his vehicles have previously fallen apart when he's stepped back. No doubt, Johnson-style, the prospect of being PM would invigorate him, but there's a long time until the next General Election, and who knows what might change for him by then.
I suspect that Labour felt that they could tolerate the Reform UK threat in the 2024 General Election, rightly expecting they would mainly affect Conservative prospects. However, now that many Labour MPs have Reform in second place, I suspect they will be more exercised, given that the way of the world is that governing parties tend to lose support. So perhaps they will look at what worked in Barking against the BNP, and Thanet against UKIP, and think about how they fight the populist right successfully.
Given how decimated the Conservative local government presence has been in recent years, we should keep a close eye on whether the right-wing vote consolidates with them or Reform UK. I have a suspicion that however moribund local Conservative associations are, they remain more capable than Reform UK in most places, and more likely to be able to identify, field and support credible candidates.
The only disagreement I have is that Farage is broadly coming out with statements in support of Starmer more and more regularly. The only way that The British Far Right can combat Starmer is to move further left.
This is where Farage is going to win votes, not by moving further right.