Neoliberal Centrist Dad, Episode 10
Could this be what Nigel Farage is planning?
I realise that I talk about Farage a lot these days. This is mostly because he is the most interesting figure in British politics at the moment - sorry to say it, but it’s true. To be fair, this is mostly through default - Starmer is grinding away with the job of trying to lead a country that is not currently leadable, while Ed Davey does his stunts (that are getting very stale now), the Greens are inherently dull and Kemi Badenoch is one of the most boring people in Great Britain and Northern Ireland. In terms of being interesting, Farage is the best of a bad bunch.
But on a more serious note, Farage is key in terms of the future of British politics over the next two decades. His project to either destroy the Conservative party or bend it to his will is going to determine a great deal of Britain’s direction - and despite having only five MPs, it’s amazing how successfully his plan is unfolding already. Kemi sounds like his press secretary most days, essentially saying that Farage is right about everything and that the Tories screwed everything up. Reform are getting a pitch for their platform from the leader of the opposition every week at the moment.
What is Farage’s long-term plan though? We know that he wants to do well in Scotland and Wales, taking as much of the Tory vote as he can in both places. We know he wants to do well in local election also (whether he can do this or not is perhaps the biggest question in British politics this parliament). The idea of these victories would be to create the impression that Reform is becoming the real party of the British right now.
But does Farage really think he can overtake the Conservative party from a position of five MPs to at the very least becoming the official opposition in one parliament? Is that realistic in any fashion? What follows might be his gameplay.
I would befriend Jenrick, if I were Farage. Now, rumours have it this has already happened some time ago, but I couldn’t possibly comment on the veracity of that. Farage could use all his tricks to win him over. Introduce him to Trump and Elon Musk, whatever it takes. Farage should do this not to get Jenrick to defect to Reform, but rather so that Jenrick stays in the Tory tent, finishes off Badenoch (which shouldn’t be difficult and is only a matter of time anyhow), and then attempts to win the leadership contest that ensues. If he succeeds, Jenrick becomes Lukashenko to Farage’s Putin - Farage essentially has a proxy as Tory leader. They could then work out a way to get Farage to become leader of the Conservatives before the next general election, with a full merger then a full on conclusion. In this scenario, if Jenrick doesn’t win the leadership contest, he could then defect, bringing as many Tory MPs to Reform as were willing to come.
Now, I have made that whole thing up above. But I ask you this: is any of it really implausible? Whatever he has planned, Farage is, for now at least, the master of what happens to the British right. The Tories are mere spectators, particularly Badenoch herself.
Morning/ I’m a white van driver from a hollowed out red brick Midlands town. Here’s a tale from my travels…I have so many.
A bunch of lads were helping me unload my van when radio news tannoyed something about Trump across their warehouse. As one they chanted “Trump, Trump, Trump” & two of them joined in a mock waltz with one shouting “Trump’s back…we can do as we fucking like!”
I’m not sure that the good people inside SW1 fully understand how many young men are energised by Trump’s victory. His behaviour (or more precisely the lack of consequences that result from it) legitimise their worst instincts & embolden them to say out loud what they’ve only been able to think…going back as far as their grandads.
Farage is so perfectly placed to tap into this. He has the traditional right wing press primed because he’s far better at doing the Trumpian schtick than Kemi Badenoch is ever going to be.
I was interested to read this from Helen Lewis….
“I would not be surprised if Reform overtake the Conservatives among young men. Looking at America, there’s clearly a market for populist, male-coded politics led by a charismatic caricature among Gen Z guys, and Nigel Farage is better placed to offer that in Britain than Kemi Badenoch. For young men, the Conservatives are the party of your grandparents who don’t think you should be able to own a house. Reform could be the two-fingers-up-at-the-scolds party they’re looking for.’
My only disagreement with HL is I don’t think this attraction will be restricted to young men.
When’s the next by-election? Then we’ll know.
Yours disillusioned (so far) with Labour & arming (metaphorically) against Reform
Driver Andy
Farage's vehicles have previously failed to scale up - there is a question about whether Reform UK can build up sustained, sizable presences that allow them to win constituencies. I would note that Thanet DC, previously controlled by UKIP, has no Reform UK councillors at present.
There is also a massive dependency on Farage himself - he's already 60, is showing signs of being bored by the responsibilities of being an MP, and his vehicles have previously fallen apart when he's stepped back. No doubt, Johnson-style, the prospect of being PM would invigorate him, but there's a long time until the next General Election, and who knows what might change for him by then.
I suspect that Labour felt that they could tolerate the Reform UK threat in the 2024 General Election, rightly expecting they would mainly affect Conservative prospects. However, now that many Labour MPs have Reform in second place, I suspect they will be more exercised, given that the way of the world is that governing parties tend to lose support. So perhaps they will look at what worked in Barking against the BNP, and Thanet against UKIP, and think about how they fight the populist right successfully.
Given how decimated the Conservative local government presence has been in recent years, we should keep a close eye on whether the right-wing vote consolidates with them or Reform UK. I have a suspicion that however moribund local Conservative associations are, they remain more capable than Reform UK in most places, and more likely to be able to identify, field and support credible candidates.