Are the Tories really facing electoral oblivion at the next general election? Why the numbers tell a story that’s even worse than you might think One of the things about the current parliament that I find strange is the extent to which there is a sort of inbuilt assumption that polling which is apocalyptically bad for the Tories must ultimately be, in some real, practical sense, incorrect. Not that political pundits think people are lying to pollsters, or that YouGov or anyone else is trying to engineer some specific result, no. It’s just that there is a presupposition that the Tories won’t
I was with this until the penultimate paragraph and Nick's comment that Tories cease to exist on 19%. If true lots of smaller parties including Liberal Democrats wouldn't exist but do.
A pity the Lib Dems haven't pushed their USP Europe more strongly but still time in this fevered atmosphere.
The destruction Brexit has brought a perfect illustration of the need for stability that PR would bring
I don't know about actual 19% being the end of the conservative party for ever. This could be political gravity - being in a world where the Tories are the "natural party of government" it could just be that like the Westminster pundits, it's impossible for me to believe that could ever happen. I also don't think it's true that just one disastrous election defeat could mean that the Tories can never come back. The effect of that would be sobering on the party, but I still think that there are too many basically Tory voters in this country for that to last for ever unless the party itself disintegrates after having a disaster like that. If they get themselves back to being even halfway sane after the Brexit and Boris years, surely there are too many natural Tories who will come back to them after a term or two of Labour governments for the party to be gone forever.
Here's a fantasy: What if the SNP ran candidates in the northern border ridings and Plaid Cymru in Cornwall and between Chester and Bristol? Pan-Celtia?
I was with this until the penultimate paragraph and Nick's comment that Tories cease to exist on 19%. If true lots of smaller parties including Liberal Democrats wouldn't exist but do.
A pity the Lib Dems haven't pushed their USP Europe more strongly but still time in this fevered atmosphere.
The destruction Brexit has brought a perfect illustration of the need for stability that PR would bring
I don't know about actual 19% being the end of the conservative party for ever. This could be political gravity - being in a world where the Tories are the "natural party of government" it could just be that like the Westminster pundits, it's impossible for me to believe that could ever happen. I also don't think it's true that just one disastrous election defeat could mean that the Tories can never come back. The effect of that would be sobering on the party, but I still think that there are too many basically Tory voters in this country for that to last for ever unless the party itself disintegrates after having a disaster like that. If they get themselves back to being even halfway sane after the Brexit and Boris years, surely there are too many natural Tories who will come back to them after a term or two of Labour governments for the party to be gone forever.
Here's a fantasy: What if the SNP ran candidates in the northern border ridings and Plaid Cymru in Cornwall and between Chester and Bristol? Pan-Celtia?