Why Rishi Sunak in Number 10 is the next phase of Brexit’s downfall - and why Prime Minister Starmer is the one after that As has been written about many times, here and elsewhere, what was odd about the Truss v Sunak Tory leadership contest in the summer was that Truss was billed as the diehard Brexiter despite having campaigned for Remain in 2016, while Sunak was the supposed Remainer despite having always been publicly Eurosceptic. However, I think the Brexiters might have been onto something after all.
The problem with saying that Labour has to show that Brexit and being outwith the SM and CU can't work whilst being in power is that Labour will then be blamed for the ensuing economic crisis by the Tories and the MSM, and the Tories will be back in, promising to "get Brexit done properly". No, Labour has got to begin telling the truth now, like the SNP, Plaid and the Greens already are.
"The 2023 sunset clause, if it actually goes ahead, will create additional constitutional and then commercial chaos, leading to less foreign direct investment, a lowering of GDP, far less growth - you know, all the things the Tories endless say they care most about stopping."
This is of course exactly what its supporters want to happen, automatic deregulation of the UK economy and no parliamentary scrutiny. Any economic chaos will greatly please the disaster capitalists and hedge fund owners. Jacob Rees-Mogg is thankfully out of the Cabinet but his dangerous Bill continues to proceed. It must be stopped.
I cannot see a way for Britain to rejoin or sign up to the SM/CU. Living in the EU I have not met too many that want to hear of the UK getting any closer than it is right now. Opt-outs are gone forever and few have an appetite to enter another agreement that Britain will not honour.
Actually, I agree with you on your last point. I think we need to recognise what you’re saying for two reasons at least.
Firstly, any Conservative government over the next few years will be ‘in hock’ politically to either the ERG , or in their unlikely silence, the DUP. Battling for clarity or reality about Brexit will be, for such a government, like rolling a giant stone uphill with one hand while trying to govern with the other. A heavy unbalancing handicap. Here, a Labour government could do better as they are not so beholden.
Secondly, the ideology of Brexit still causes psychological trauma and cognitive dissonance among the public. We aren’t through that yet - as you say, it’s ‘melting’ - but recovering from this will take time. If we are to recover fully from such traumatic ideological division, particularly as it’s mixed with toxic nationalism, this process needs careful (and nurturing) management where possible. The damage of the Brexit deception has not yet fully penetrated people’s minds and hearts and much like someone leaving a cultic belief-system, not only evidence is needed, but care, after what has been a really painful experience for many people at every level of society. This is one reason why, I believe, pro-Brexiteers find it so hard to admit it’s not working, even with the factual evidence being presented.
One can only hope that the roots of the current cost of living crisis will help concentrate minds and ‘the Brexit effect’ part of this will become clear. At the moment, that particular root is not fully visible. I just hope we have time for this (and maybe could rejoin the single market and/or customs union) before our economy is damaged too badly…
This is the worst of all worlds, we must accept that things will get much worse, so we can prove to doubters that Brexit is as bad as most people know it to be. This will mean many more lost years as inward investment, growth and confidence in Britain, all collapse, we may not recover from this delay.
We need an effective leader, who can shoot the Brexit Elephant and lead the country, swiftly back to its rightful place in Europe. My personal preference is to make the next election, post Brexit, about the benefits of rejoining the EU now. Labour should take the lead, but the Tories might just go rogue.
"I think we need a government that actually tries to make the stupid thing work for real so that enough people... ....at last see that the whole thing was a genuinely terrible idea."
I think you are right there; if the UK could and did just jump back into the EU it then a large minority would start their own "Stabbed in the back" conspiracy. The cry would be "We could have made it work but the metropolitan elites / Remoaners /Scots/French/EU stopped us", and the whole sorry mess would repeat in a generation with even worse consequences internally and externally.
As it is applying to rejoin, then a fairly long wait while the EU decides what the UK will need to commit to and processes the application will be in the UK's best interests long term; maybe by the time it finally manages to rejoin it will be committed to the EU's core goals, not just a "Trade agreement".
I think the 1st of September 2039 would be an appropriate date.
Nick, you like a few others say that it is necessary to make Brexit work before seeking to undo it but you don't offer any arguments to say why it is 'necessary'. If a majority of the country are now pro rejoin and anti Brexit is not the right thing for a politician to do campaign to rejoin asap?
The problem with saying that Labour has to show that Brexit and being outwith the SM and CU can't work whilst being in power is that Labour will then be blamed for the ensuing economic crisis by the Tories and the MSM, and the Tories will be back in, promising to "get Brexit done properly". No, Labour has got to begin telling the truth now, like the SNP, Plaid and the Greens already are.
"The 2023 sunset clause, if it actually goes ahead, will create additional constitutional and then commercial chaos, leading to less foreign direct investment, a lowering of GDP, far less growth - you know, all the things the Tories endless say they care most about stopping."
This is of course exactly what its supporters want to happen, automatic deregulation of the UK economy and no parliamentary scrutiny. Any economic chaos will greatly please the disaster capitalists and hedge fund owners. Jacob Rees-Mogg is thankfully out of the Cabinet but his dangerous Bill continues to proceed. It must be stopped.
I cannot see a way for Britain to rejoin or sign up to the SM/CU. Living in the EU I have not met too many that want to hear of the UK getting any closer than it is right now. Opt-outs are gone forever and few have an appetite to enter another agreement that Britain will not honour.
No more Britain in the EU ... no thanks.
Actually, I agree with you on your last point. I think we need to recognise what you’re saying for two reasons at least.
Firstly, any Conservative government over the next few years will be ‘in hock’ politically to either the ERG , or in their unlikely silence, the DUP. Battling for clarity or reality about Brexit will be, for such a government, like rolling a giant stone uphill with one hand while trying to govern with the other. A heavy unbalancing handicap. Here, a Labour government could do better as they are not so beholden.
Secondly, the ideology of Brexit still causes psychological trauma and cognitive dissonance among the public. We aren’t through that yet - as you say, it’s ‘melting’ - but recovering from this will take time. If we are to recover fully from such traumatic ideological division, particularly as it’s mixed with toxic nationalism, this process needs careful (and nurturing) management where possible. The damage of the Brexit deception has not yet fully penetrated people’s minds and hearts and much like someone leaving a cultic belief-system, not only evidence is needed, but care, after what has been a really painful experience for many people at every level of society. This is one reason why, I believe, pro-Brexiteers find it so hard to admit it’s not working, even with the factual evidence being presented.
One can only hope that the roots of the current cost of living crisis will help concentrate minds and ‘the Brexit effect’ part of this will become clear. At the moment, that particular root is not fully visible. I just hope we have time for this (and maybe could rejoin the single market and/or customs union) before our economy is damaged too badly…
This is the worst of all worlds, we must accept that things will get much worse, so we can prove to doubters that Brexit is as bad as most people know it to be. This will mean many more lost years as inward investment, growth and confidence in Britain, all collapse, we may not recover from this delay.
We need an effective leader, who can shoot the Brexit Elephant and lead the country, swiftly back to its rightful place in Europe. My personal preference is to make the next election, post Brexit, about the benefits of rejoining the EU now. Labour should take the lead, but the Tories might just go rogue.
"I think we need a government that actually tries to make the stupid thing work for real so that enough people... ....at last see that the whole thing was a genuinely terrible idea."
I think you are right there; if the UK could and did just jump back into the EU it then a large minority would start their own "Stabbed in the back" conspiracy. The cry would be "We could have made it work but the metropolitan elites / Remoaners /Scots/French/EU stopped us", and the whole sorry mess would repeat in a generation with even worse consequences internally and externally.
As it is applying to rejoin, then a fairly long wait while the EU decides what the UK will need to commit to and processes the application will be in the UK's best interests long term; maybe by the time it finally manages to rejoin it will be committed to the EU's core goals, not just a "Trade agreement".
I think the 1st of September 2039 would be an appropriate date.
Nick, you like a few others say that it is necessary to make Brexit work before seeking to undo it but you don't offer any arguments to say why it is 'necessary'. If a majority of the country are now pro rejoin and anti Brexit is not the right thing for a politician to do campaign to rejoin asap?