Why there is one number more than any other that tells us how soon we can rejoin the EU A YouGov poll out this week made bleak reading for those still invested in the Brexit project. Only nine percent of people said that leaving the EU has been a success so far, with 62% saying it’s been failure. Those are brutal numbers for Brexit. But what do they really tell us?
I am not sure if the number of people who think Brexit could have worked if done right will ever fall to or below 10%.
It is an extremely easy excuse for Leave voters who might not like where things have gone but aren't ready to admit that their vote caused or helped cause it.
Additionally, it is without question that the Brexit process had been handled very badly.
Every step got rushed, nothing got prepared, repeatedly extremist positions were preferred over more moderate ones.
And "could have been handled better" can easily be reinterpreted as "could have been done right" or even a "can still be made right" (or "make Brexit work" as Labour currently puts it).
Connected with the inherent "absolution" for Leave voters, this will remain a strong proposition for a very long time.
I have been thinking for a couple of years that we probably will rejoin the EU, and probably within the next 20 years. However, it will be a Conservative government that takes us back in. Labour, at least for the next 10 years, won't and can't go near that. Firstly, they will have too much else to do (some of which will involve closer and more cordial relations with the EU), and secondly, the remaining (and evolving?) Tory media landscape would tear them to pieces. People today forget how the Sun supported Blair. People will eventually forget the frenzied right wing media of 2015-2024 and back a future Conservative government taking us back into the EU "to repair Labour's mistakes". It might not be any time soon, but I'm convinced it will happen. Tory re-invention has a long, and generally successful, history.
" We Tories took us into Europe in the 70s, the Country, against Tory high command wishes took us out in 2016, we Tories will put us rightly back in whilst keeping our currency, we are the pragmatic party of business and opportunity whilst Labour flogs a dead horse trying grubby deals with the EU when we have no real say, we need to be at the top table in this fast moving world."
That's possibly how the Tories will position themselves in 2029.
"That’s interesting to me. As is the fact that the inverse appears to be true: 16% of Remain voters agree that Brexit had some potential, but the Tories screwed it up."
I think a decent case can be made for this actually, provided that you accept that the Brexit that was promised (all things to all people / have cake and eat it) was never going to be possible.
Had the (or a hypothetical) government attempted to create a national unity movement / citizens assembly / something... that could have agreed on leaving the EU but staying in the Single Market and focusing on reforming our political system to be more representative and resolving some of the economic issues that affect some people, this could be presented as both referendum mandate delivered and the desired refocusing of attention on the issues that matter to the UK. (Yes, it would have involved standing up to the tabloids and some of Brexit's main cheerleaders, but could have been seen as a success.)
The only driver into the stupidity of Brexit, was johnsons desire to get paid a fortune by extremely wealthy tory sponsors, for releasing them from the need to pay more corporation tax in the EU.
By taking the country out of EU membership, where new legislation was designed to make companies pay the correct amount of Corporation tax, without avoidance.
There is no possible way that brexit could ever be of any benefit to the UK population. As is now widely recognised, there are no benefits whatsoever from brexit.
In my humble opinion the architect of brexit should be prosecuted, and incarcerated as well as a multi billion fine to partially cover his crimes.
But I doubt that johnson will ever get what he is due for the trouble and cost he has created. imho.
I am not sure if the number of people who think Brexit could have worked if done right will ever fall to or below 10%.
It is an extremely easy excuse for Leave voters who might not like where things have gone but aren't ready to admit that their vote caused or helped cause it.
Additionally, it is without question that the Brexit process had been handled very badly.
Every step got rushed, nothing got prepared, repeatedly extremist positions were preferred over more moderate ones.
And "could have been handled better" can easily be reinterpreted as "could have been done right" or even a "can still be made right" (or "make Brexit work" as Labour currently puts it).
Connected with the inherent "absolution" for Leave voters, this will remain a strong proposition for a very long time.
I have been thinking for a couple of years that we probably will rejoin the EU, and probably within the next 20 years. However, it will be a Conservative government that takes us back in. Labour, at least for the next 10 years, won't and can't go near that. Firstly, they will have too much else to do (some of which will involve closer and more cordial relations with the EU), and secondly, the remaining (and evolving?) Tory media landscape would tear them to pieces. People today forget how the Sun supported Blair. People will eventually forget the frenzied right wing media of 2015-2024 and back a future Conservative government taking us back into the EU "to repair Labour's mistakes". It might not be any time soon, but I'm convinced it will happen. Tory re-invention has a long, and generally successful, history.
" We Tories took us into Europe in the 70s, the Country, against Tory high command wishes took us out in 2016, we Tories will put us rightly back in whilst keeping our currency, we are the pragmatic party of business and opportunity whilst Labour flogs a dead horse trying grubby deals with the EU when we have no real say, we need to be at the top table in this fast moving world."
That's possibly how the Tories will position themselves in 2029.
"That’s interesting to me. As is the fact that the inverse appears to be true: 16% of Remain voters agree that Brexit had some potential, but the Tories screwed it up."
I think a decent case can be made for this actually, provided that you accept that the Brexit that was promised (all things to all people / have cake and eat it) was never going to be possible.
Had the (or a hypothetical) government attempted to create a national unity movement / citizens assembly / something... that could have agreed on leaving the EU but staying in the Single Market and focusing on reforming our political system to be more representative and resolving some of the economic issues that affect some people, this could be presented as both referendum mandate delivered and the desired refocusing of attention on the issues that matter to the UK. (Yes, it would have involved standing up to the tabloids and some of Brexit's main cheerleaders, but could have been seen as a success.)
The only driver into the stupidity of Brexit, was johnsons desire to get paid a fortune by extremely wealthy tory sponsors, for releasing them from the need to pay more corporation tax in the EU.
By taking the country out of EU membership, where new legislation was designed to make companies pay the correct amount of Corporation tax, without avoidance.
There is no possible way that brexit could ever be of any benefit to the UK population. As is now widely recognised, there are no benefits whatsoever from brexit.
In my humble opinion the architect of brexit should be prosecuted, and incarcerated as well as a multi billion fine to partially cover his crimes.
But I doubt that johnson will ever get what he is due for the trouble and cost he has created. imho.
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/anti-tax-avoidance-package