I am not sure if the number of people who think Brexit could have worked if done right will ever fall to or below 10%.
It is an extremely easy excuse for Leave voters who might not like where things have gone but aren't ready to admit that their vote caused or helped cause it.
Additionally, it is without question that the Brexit process had been handled very badly.
Every step got rushed, nothing got prepared, repeatedly extremist positions were preferred over more moderate ones.
And "could have been handled better" can easily be reinterpreted as "could have been done right" or even a "can still be made right" (or "make Brexit work" as Labour currently puts it).
Connected with the inherent "absolution" for Leave voters, this will remain a strong proposition for a very long time.
I have been thinking for a couple of years that we probably will rejoin the EU, and probably within the next 20 years. However, it will be a Conservative government that takes us back in. Labour, at least for the next 10 years, won't and can't go near that. Firstly, they will have too much else to do (some of which will involve closer and more cordial relations with the EU), and secondly, the remaining (and evolving?) Tory media landscape would tear them to pieces. People today forget how the Sun supported Blair. People will eventually forget the frenzied right wing media of 2015-2024 and back a future Conservative government taking us back into the EU "to repair Labour's mistakes". It might not be any time soon, but I'm convinced it will happen. Tory re-invention has a long, and generally successful, history.
This is a real possibility, but I'd add something further to it. I can't see us rejoining until (unless) we ditch First Past the Post. Our current electoral system is so inherently unstable and vulnerable to one of the two major parties being hijacked by extremists that I can't see it being possible that the UK could credibly present itself to the EU as having a will settled on rejoining.
I also think the size of the challenges facing the country require a better form of politics, so even leaving aside the EU question, if we don't go some way towards fixing the country, we'll find it impossible to meet the entry criteria as we'll be such an economic and political basketcase.
But if we do switch to a form of Proportional Representation it would become much easier for a centre-right Conservative party, whether that be something new, or something split from the UKIP/Brexit/Trumpian mess the Tories are now, to come into being. A moderate party that could repudiate the headbangers and say confidently 'we're not those idiots'. Could such a party win a majority in a PR parliament? Probably not. But such a party could easily be part of a coalition that lead the UK back into the EU - especially if such a move had mass appeal, with only the far left and far right opposing it.
" We Tories took us into Europe in the 70s, the Country, against Tory high command wishes took us out in 2016, we Tories will put us rightly back in whilst keeping our currency, we are the pragmatic party of business and opportunity whilst Labour flogs a dead horse trying grubby deals with the EU when we have no real say, we need to be at the top table in this fast moving world."
That's possibly how the Tories will position themselves in 2029.
That's very plausible, if worded in a way that appeals to people. With a big helping of "Labour's Brexit didn't work" heaped on top. If they can push that line successfully - and by God, they'll try - the short memories of the electorate may do the rest.
"That’s interesting to me. As is the fact that the inverse appears to be true: 16% of Remain voters agree that Brexit had some potential, but the Tories screwed it up."
I think a decent case can be made for this actually, provided that you accept that the Brexit that was promised (all things to all people / have cake and eat it) was never going to be possible.
Had the (or a hypothetical) government attempted to create a national unity movement / citizens assembly / something... that could have agreed on leaving the EU but staying in the Single Market and focusing on reforming our political system to be more representative and resolving some of the economic issues that affect some people, this could be presented as both referendum mandate delivered and the desired refocusing of attention on the issues that matter to the UK. (Yes, it would have involved standing up to the tabloids and some of Brexit's main cheerleaders, but could have been seen as a success.)
Of course a sensible Brexit - eg Single Market/EFTA - could have potentially worked. But I think you will find that the 16% are mainly Brexit appeasers who have convinced themselves that it is just easier and more convenient to travel the Brexit ideological road. They even tend to parrot some of the economically illiterate undergraduate Leave nonsense -eg that Europe is economically declining in relative terms (inevitable and irrelevant) and therefore we have to just jump off a cliff - and into CTPP etc.
The only driver into the stupidity of Brexit, was johnsons desire to get paid a fortune by extremely wealthy tory sponsors, for releasing them from the need to pay more corporation tax in the EU.
By taking the country out of EU membership, where new legislation was designed to make companies pay the correct amount of Corporation tax, without avoidance.
There is no possible way that brexit could ever be of any benefit to the UK population. As is now widely recognised, there are no benefits whatsoever from brexit.
In my humble opinion the architect of brexit should be prosecuted, and incarcerated as well as a multi billion fine to partially cover his crimes.
But I doubt that johnson will ever get what he is due for the trouble and cost he has created. imho.
I don't think you can gainsay that a lot of people were sincerely anti European for all kinds of reasons, and you can't explain them all by saying that Johnson and JRM fooled them and enough people thought Johnson was a jolly good chap to take him seriously.
I mean, I think the "Britannia Unchained" lot fit into your caricature of Johnson to one degree or another, but there were a whole lot of other people with different reasons who wanted Brexit to happen, it didn't just come out of nowhere.
I agree with this. Successive governments had done (or been able to do?) so little to address long term problems, that a 'revolutionary" tear it all down moment didn't seem like the worst thing ever in 2016. What changed that is the vacuity of the Conservative Party. Take back control, levelling up, stop the boats: great slogans to campaign on, but absolute shit for delivery of longer term policy to address issues. The revolutionaries had their chance and failed. Their revolution is now old news for an ever-increasing proportion of the electorate.
I agree, absolutely. But the media landscape is such that one party must "earn" power, while the other is held to have an automatic right to power. Its been this way since the 1920s. It wasntvthis way in the Conservative vs Liberal era.
I am not sure if the number of people who think Brexit could have worked if done right will ever fall to or below 10%.
It is an extremely easy excuse for Leave voters who might not like where things have gone but aren't ready to admit that their vote caused or helped cause it.
Additionally, it is without question that the Brexit process had been handled very badly.
Every step got rushed, nothing got prepared, repeatedly extremist positions were preferred over more moderate ones.
And "could have been handled better" can easily be reinterpreted as "could have been done right" or even a "can still be made right" (or "make Brexit work" as Labour currently puts it).
Connected with the inherent "absolution" for Leave voters, this will remain a strong proposition for a very long time.
I have been thinking for a couple of years that we probably will rejoin the EU, and probably within the next 20 years. However, it will be a Conservative government that takes us back in. Labour, at least for the next 10 years, won't and can't go near that. Firstly, they will have too much else to do (some of which will involve closer and more cordial relations with the EU), and secondly, the remaining (and evolving?) Tory media landscape would tear them to pieces. People today forget how the Sun supported Blair. People will eventually forget the frenzied right wing media of 2015-2024 and back a future Conservative government taking us back into the EU "to repair Labour's mistakes". It might not be any time soon, but I'm convinced it will happen. Tory re-invention has a long, and generally successful, history.
This is a real possibility, but I'd add something further to it. I can't see us rejoining until (unless) we ditch First Past the Post. Our current electoral system is so inherently unstable and vulnerable to one of the two major parties being hijacked by extremists that I can't see it being possible that the UK could credibly present itself to the EU as having a will settled on rejoining.
I also think the size of the challenges facing the country require a better form of politics, so even leaving aside the EU question, if we don't go some way towards fixing the country, we'll find it impossible to meet the entry criteria as we'll be such an economic and political basketcase.
But if we do switch to a form of Proportional Representation it would become much easier for a centre-right Conservative party, whether that be something new, or something split from the UKIP/Brexit/Trumpian mess the Tories are now, to come into being. A moderate party that could repudiate the headbangers and say confidently 'we're not those idiots'. Could such a party win a majority in a PR parliament? Probably not. But such a party could easily be part of a coalition that lead the UK back into the EU - especially if such a move had mass appeal, with only the far left and far right opposing it.
" We Tories took us into Europe in the 70s, the Country, against Tory high command wishes took us out in 2016, we Tories will put us rightly back in whilst keeping our currency, we are the pragmatic party of business and opportunity whilst Labour flogs a dead horse trying grubby deals with the EU when we have no real say, we need to be at the top table in this fast moving world."
That's possibly how the Tories will position themselves in 2029.
That's very plausible, if worded in a way that appeals to people. With a big helping of "Labour's Brexit didn't work" heaped on top. If they can push that line successfully - and by God, they'll try - the short memories of the electorate may do the rest.
Bullshite
"That’s interesting to me. As is the fact that the inverse appears to be true: 16% of Remain voters agree that Brexit had some potential, but the Tories screwed it up."
I think a decent case can be made for this actually, provided that you accept that the Brexit that was promised (all things to all people / have cake and eat it) was never going to be possible.
Had the (or a hypothetical) government attempted to create a national unity movement / citizens assembly / something... that could have agreed on leaving the EU but staying in the Single Market and focusing on reforming our political system to be more representative and resolving some of the economic issues that affect some people, this could be presented as both referendum mandate delivered and the desired refocusing of attention on the issues that matter to the UK. (Yes, it would have involved standing up to the tabloids and some of Brexit's main cheerleaders, but could have been seen as a success.)
Of course a sensible Brexit - eg Single Market/EFTA - could have potentially worked. But I think you will find that the 16% are mainly Brexit appeasers who have convinced themselves that it is just easier and more convenient to travel the Brexit ideological road. They even tend to parrot some of the economically illiterate undergraduate Leave nonsense -eg that Europe is economically declining in relative terms (inevitable and irrelevant) and therefore we have to just jump off a cliff - and into CTPP etc.
The only driver into the stupidity of Brexit, was johnsons desire to get paid a fortune by extremely wealthy tory sponsors, for releasing them from the need to pay more corporation tax in the EU.
By taking the country out of EU membership, where new legislation was designed to make companies pay the correct amount of Corporation tax, without avoidance.
There is no possible way that brexit could ever be of any benefit to the UK population. As is now widely recognised, there are no benefits whatsoever from brexit.
In my humble opinion the architect of brexit should be prosecuted, and incarcerated as well as a multi billion fine to partially cover his crimes.
But I doubt that johnson will ever get what he is due for the trouble and cost he has created. imho.
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/anti-tax-avoidance-package
I don't think you can gainsay that a lot of people were sincerely anti European for all kinds of reasons, and you can't explain them all by saying that Johnson and JRM fooled them and enough people thought Johnson was a jolly good chap to take him seriously.
I mean, I think the "Britannia Unchained" lot fit into your caricature of Johnson to one degree or another, but there were a whole lot of other people with different reasons who wanted Brexit to happen, it didn't just come out of nowhere.
I agree with this. Successive governments had done (or been able to do?) so little to address long term problems, that a 'revolutionary" tear it all down moment didn't seem like the worst thing ever in 2016. What changed that is the vacuity of the Conservative Party. Take back control, levelling up, stop the boats: great slogans to campaign on, but absolute shit for delivery of longer term policy to address issues. The revolutionaries had their chance and failed. Their revolution is now old news for an ever-increasing proportion of the electorate.
The Tories are always wrong, they are driven by unbridled avarice. Or pure financial greed, and they should never ever be in government again.
I agree, absolutely. But the media landscape is such that one party must "earn" power, while the other is held to have an automatic right to power. Its been this way since the 1920s. It wasntvthis way in the Conservative vs Liberal era.
Labour must prove they're fit for government. The Tories must prove - eventually - that they're unfit for government.