This week in Brexitland, May 2, 2024
This is how Brexit dies - another EU referendum long before 2040
It’s fair to say by this point, more than four years in, that Brexit has not gone according to the Brexiters’ plan. The polls on rejoining the EU should make horrible reading for anyone committed passionately to the project. Almost no one thinks the Brexit we’ve had so far has been a good one.
Yet from a Rejoiner point of view, the battle against Brexit is very far from won. This is for three main reasons: one, the consensus in Westminster, amongst politicians and the media, that seriously questioning Brexit is verboten; two, the feeling amongst the general public that Brexit should either be given more of a chance, or that reopening the battle would be painful and ultimately unproductive; three, the state of anything resembling a rejoin campaign is woefully absent. I would say the final item on that list can be assembled quickly, if that didn’t instantly make me remember 2016.
However, having said all of that, it’s almost impossible to imagine pro-rejoin sentiment not growing even further over the next five to ten years. There are three big reasons for this as well: one, the demographics are bad for Brexit. Around 87% of people 18-24 would vote to rejoin right now. Even amongst 25-55 year olds, you’re looking at over 60% rejoin; two, the downsides of Brexit will continue to be felt, more and more, alongside a total dearth of practical benefits to having left the EU being present; Labour getting into power will change British politics massively. On the latter point: even if Starmer and his frontbench resist anything with even a hint of rejoin flavour to it, they will increasingly be flying in the face of popular sentiment.
Perhaps Labour will give it one parliament to '“make Brexit work” in order to fulfil their promise around giving that their best shot. Near the end of the next parliament, in 2028 or thereabouts, they can say to the British public something along the lines of, “We gave it our all. There is no way we can make anything better under the current arrangements. We are going to have to look at either rejoining the EU or partial rejoining in some sense, ie, simply rejoining the single market or customs union. We have to change something substantial.”
This is why Rejoiners will have to apply pressure on Labour pretty much as soon as the dust settles on the general election result. It might well require a whole new party, expressly dedicated to rejoining the EU, a sort of UKIP in reverse. Maybe not, but it’s something that should be on everyone’s horizon. It seems almost impossible to imagine now, but the political need for it might well become overwhelming.
The media coverage of Brexit will almost certainly change once Labour are in power. Beyond what we’re seeing already where Brexit is now the status quo and indeed, a status quo that is failing, add to that the fact that Brexit will become a policy being pursued by a Labour government. The media in Britain, for various reasons, are always happier giving Labour a harder time than they dish out to the Tories when they are in government. Labour’s Brexit stance will likely be pilloried by the press, mostly along the lines of “here’s another government that can’t get Brexit right”. Except, having several governments in a row that can’t seem to do Brexit correctly is likely to give a lot of people in the country the idea that it might in fact be Brexit’s fault after all.
A Labour government trying and failing to “make Brexit work” will destroy the argument that “Brexit is good, it just hasn’t been done right” for all but the most ideologically driven. In other words, while it may not seem like it now, we could be entering Brexit’s dying days. John Curtice, the political scientist and pollster, thinks there will be another EU referendum in Britain before 2040. I agree with him, the only caveat being, I think it will happen much sooner than that.
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Politicians’ refusal to be held accountable for Brexit is so very offensive. I’ve always thought that the biggest obstacle to rejoining is the fact that just don’t want to admit how little they knew about the UK and the EU when they waved through plans for the most irresponsible referendum in the history of voting. Everything leads back to their ignorance and failure to safeguard - even the so-called decent ones. Labour talks about making Brexit work to flatter the public it let down so badly by failing to ask questions in 2015. Now they’re planning to waste years and years going round the houses proving it doesn’t work, all to spare their blushes.
We need to clear the air massively. Thise dreadful, referendum-approving politicians should either go and make room for better, more knowledgeable, honest people, or say loud and clear what a bloody stupid thing they did. That will unblock division amongst the public and kill the beast once and for all. We need to blame those dreadful politicians together instead of each other.
I wonder what sort of referendum it would be. After 2016, I can't see any politician presenting the question as a vague " rejoin." Perhaps rejoining as a manifesto item in the GE after next, then, with the specific terms negotiated put to a confirmatory, legally binding vote.