How this week ended the Tories last gasp hope of winning the next general election It is hard to believe that it was only a little over a week ago that Rishi Sunak stood on a stage with Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, and announced that a new deal on Northern Ireland had been struck between the UK and the EU. For perhaps the first time since taking the job, Sunak looked and sounded prime ministerial.
Excellent piece, that gets right to the heart of the Conservative problem. They took Dom Cummings' advice. They moved fast and broke things. Now they're all broken, they can't move fast, or indeed at all. And the only things left to them are complaining about the logical effects of what they've done, and trying to whip upmarket shrinking dupport base with unworkable policies whose failure they hope to blame on Labour. Not a strategy for getting a hung Parliament, let alone a working majority.
Haha, James, Freudian slip. Indeed, there's *nothing* "upmarket" about today's Tory Party...and I say that as a Tory voter in all but two of the last nine General Elections.
So, if you don't mind me asking, what would be your biggest objection (if any - I'm assuming here!) to voting Conservative at the next GE? Would it be morality, competence or something else?
James, that's fine. My biggest objection is that the Conservative party is neither a "conservative" party in terms of having traditional views on the conservation of traditions and beauty, which certainly was the ethos prior to Thatcher...and is neither the market libertarian force it was under Thatcher. Liz Truss thought she would unleash her inner Maggie, but she couldn't even begin to approach the intellect or drive.
My biggest objection to voting Tory again is that the cultural changes in the UK resulting from the over bureaucratic state, embedding Diversity Equity Inclusion mantras throughout all British institutions, started by Blair, but embedded during 13 years of continuous Conservative government means that there is no more point voting for them.
If the institutions are all going to have a left liberal bias, and a Conservative government over a decade plus provides no pushback, then it's a conservative movement in name only.
But I certainly have no inclination to vote Labour. Why would I want to contribute to the total cementing of an anti-conservative ethos, as someone who will always call himself a conservative.
Bloody autocorrect! As soon as I get the bit between my teeth and start really formulating an opinion.....here come the fat fingers to derail my by typing corrupted Esperanto. Every time.
I've said it before..........I just wish Nick's Brexitland scripts appeared in the Telegraph everyday.
I still subscribe to that paper, I do feel most of the Commentators and the editorial team are actually in cloud cuckoo land, you may get a dose of reality from Jeremy Warner but he is then slated in the comments section by readers who quite frankly detest.......and I mean detest not just the EU but you get a feeling all things European.
As the only UK broadsheet paper that is enthusiastically pro Brexit what on earth is it going to do when its older readership dies off. It is interesting that readers of the Times, from looking in the comments section are overwhelmingly pro SM/CU or at least pragmatic about a better relationship with the EU.
Really good point. A recent article by Sam Freedman highlighted the extent to which Thatcherism and faux-Thatcherism have created an electorate almost guaranteed to vote against the Conservatives. A similar thing can be seen with the maddest of the right-wing papers (and their online presence). Once their readership starts dying off, who will replace them? On current trends, it seems like very few people under 50, so it's interesting to speculate on their future business model. Maybe GB News is actually the only possible right-wing response to this, but again I can't see it appealing to more than a dwindling minority.
We'll see, Nick. My money is still on a Tory rout, but I believe there's all to play for.
Firstly, noone really knows what Starmer and Labour stand for. Most focus groups show minimal excitement for the Labour "project". Indeed "nice guy but no idea what Labour stand for" is a persistent theme.
Is general antipathy twds the Conservatives and lukewarm feelings twds post-Corbyn Labour enough to REALLY get Starmer over the line?
I'm not so sure.
I believe that the next 18 months will be a combination of generally improving economics, and a widening/weaponising of the culture war, from Brexit credentials, to migrant boats to women's rights/transactivism.
I believe Sunak will be looking to opening up divides, at the very least in communications.
These will be the attack lines:
"Can you trust a man who was prepared to work under Corbyn, who looked to overturn the Leave vote, who is in hock with the establishment barring all attempts to stop small boats migration, who obfuscates when asked to define a woman?"
Marc, I have a feeling we may see something more 1964: a wafer-thin Labour majority as duisgust with the Conservatives doesn't automatically equal support for Labour. Grudging support won't win a huge majority. However, this could be a better result long-term, as a massive Labour majority / Conservative wipeout would make Labour the de facto opposition to Labour. As we've, ahem, seen since 2019. 80-seat majority and a fragmented party ......but no effective govt or legislative programme for over 3 years.
Excellent piece, that gets right to the heart of the Conservative problem. They took Dom Cummings' advice. They moved fast and broke things. Now they're all broken, they can't move fast, or indeed at all. And the only things left to them are complaining about the logical effects of what they've done, and trying to whip upmarket shrinking dupport base with unworkable policies whose failure they hope to blame on Labour. Not a strategy for getting a hung Parliament, let alone a working majority.
"Upmarket" should read " whipping up a....."
Haha, James, Freudian slip. Indeed, there's *nothing* "upmarket" about today's Tory Party...and I say that as a Tory voter in all but two of the last nine General Elections.
So, if you don't mind me asking, what would be your biggest objection (if any - I'm assuming here!) to voting Conservative at the next GE? Would it be morality, competence or something else?
James, that's fine. My biggest objection is that the Conservative party is neither a "conservative" party in terms of having traditional views on the conservation of traditions and beauty, which certainly was the ethos prior to Thatcher...and is neither the market libertarian force it was under Thatcher. Liz Truss thought she would unleash her inner Maggie, but she couldn't even begin to approach the intellect or drive.
My biggest objection to voting Tory again is that the cultural changes in the UK resulting from the over bureaucratic state, embedding Diversity Equity Inclusion mantras throughout all British institutions, started by Blair, but embedded during 13 years of continuous Conservative government means that there is no more point voting for them.
If the institutions are all going to have a left liberal bias, and a Conservative government over a decade plus provides no pushback, then it's a conservative movement in name only.
But I certainly have no inclination to vote Labour. Why would I want to contribute to the total cementing of an anti-conservative ethos, as someone who will always call himself a conservative.
Bloody autocorrect! As soon as I get the bit between my teeth and start really formulating an opinion.....here come the fat fingers to derail my by typing corrupted Esperanto. Every time.
I've said it before..........I just wish Nick's Brexitland scripts appeared in the Telegraph everyday.
I still subscribe to that paper, I do feel most of the Commentators and the editorial team are actually in cloud cuckoo land, you may get a dose of reality from Jeremy Warner but he is then slated in the comments section by readers who quite frankly detest.......and I mean detest not just the EU but you get a feeling all things European.
As the only UK broadsheet paper that is enthusiastically pro Brexit what on earth is it going to do when its older readership dies off. It is interesting that readers of the Times, from looking in the comments section are overwhelmingly pro SM/CU or at least pragmatic about a better relationship with the EU.
Really good point. A recent article by Sam Freedman highlighted the extent to which Thatcherism and faux-Thatcherism have created an electorate almost guaranteed to vote against the Conservatives. A similar thing can be seen with the maddest of the right-wing papers (and their online presence). Once their readership starts dying off, who will replace them? On current trends, it seems like very few people under 50, so it's interesting to speculate on their future business model. Maybe GB News is actually the only possible right-wing response to this, but again I can't see it appealing to more than a dwindling minority.
Nick, it would be great if you could get into some conversation. Other forum sites have to and fro comments from the author and respondents.
My thoughts here are...
Is 2024 going to be 1997 when the Tories were routed?
Or 1992 when it looked like they were going to, but Labour conspired to shoot themselves in the head?
My money is on 1992.
I will write an entire post on this topic tomorrow, look out for it. In short: I don't think 2024 is going to be 1992 for a host of reasons.
Could it be October 1964 though?
We'll see, Nick. My money is still on a Tory rout, but I believe there's all to play for.
Firstly, noone really knows what Starmer and Labour stand for. Most focus groups show minimal excitement for the Labour "project". Indeed "nice guy but no idea what Labour stand for" is a persistent theme.
Is general antipathy twds the Conservatives and lukewarm feelings twds post-Corbyn Labour enough to REALLY get Starmer over the line?
I'm not so sure.
I believe that the next 18 months will be a combination of generally improving economics, and a widening/weaponising of the culture war, from Brexit credentials, to migrant boats to women's rights/transactivism.
I believe Sunak will be looking to opening up divides, at the very least in communications.
These will be the attack lines:
"Can you trust a man who was prepared to work under Corbyn, who looked to overturn the Leave vote, who is in hock with the establishment barring all attempts to stop small boats migration, who obfuscates when asked to define a woman?"
Marc, I have a feeling we may see something more 1964: a wafer-thin Labour majority as duisgust with the Conservatives doesn't automatically equal support for Labour. Grudging support won't win a huge majority. However, this could be a better result long-term, as a massive Labour majority / Conservative wipeout would make Labour the de facto opposition to Labour. As we've, ahem, seen since 2019. 80-seat majority and a fragmented party ......but no effective govt or legislative programme for over 3 years.
Of course, does the SNP self immolating help Labour or the Conservatives? There's a few dozen seats to play for North of the border.
I agree, a marginal Labour govt could be the likely outcome.