i broadly agree - although people need to resist the temptation to peddle the lazy trope of Brexit being delivered by the angry red wall - yes when you look at votes as a % it looks persuasive - i,e, 72% of Clacton yada yada (but how many actual votes)
When total votes are analyzed it's clear that the majority came from relatively well-off areas in the South, Southwest, Midland s etc
so please don't discount the power of the Red Corduroy trouser brigade in getting Brexit over the line
I think you might be giving the electorate too much of a collective personality in 2016. That whole chuck a brick narrative gained traction mostly after the fact, at least it seems to me. A lot of people didn’t think/care/know much about the EU until the ref. In the end the numbers of disparate groups just added up under a hazy umbrella. This time the electorate is a lot more conscious about wanting to give the Tories a kicking.
A lot of people don't think/care/know much about politics in general, but still have strong and sincerely held political opinions that usually involve someone needing a kicking.
But (as in France), there is no magical short cut to make everyone happy. There is no mystical macroeconomic sauce that politicians can boil up to put everything right.
What is possible is a series of microeconomic (and constitutional) reforms that will be expensive in the short term and will probably have negligible measurable effect for 10 years.
I was living and working in Derby at the time of the Ref, a town which was Brexity, and with some depressing orbital estates, but which was generally thriving economically - Rolls-Royce, Toyota, the railways. I don't buy this "protest against neglect" line at all, because when I out canvassing on the streets against Brexit or talking to people in the pub or when waiting outside the school gates what i heard was "We'll send the immigrants back". They thought that Brexit would get rid of migrants from South Asia. People at Rolls-Royce and Toyota, for example, were warned that voting Leave would imperil these businesses and their jobs, but they went ahead and voted Leave anyway, because their loathing of "forrins" was far greater than their wish to keep jobs for their children and grandchildren.
The Brexit vote was an expression of little-Englander inferiority/superiority xenophobia and not much else and its about time that Leavers took responsibility for their catastrophic decision . Anyway, I'm living Scotland now, with a much healthier political climate
I live in a similar red brick mid-England town & racism is endemic along with sexism & homophobia. They’re mostly low level but they’re everywhere & Farage & co (together with events looming in France & USA) will only legitimise & allow them to be out & proud over next few years.
Those who live in cosmopolitan big cities & much of the media & political class simply have no idea how much resentment little Englanders harbour for what was initially tolerance of, & is now seen as encouragement for, those different from their perception of whom we all should be.
It would be justice done to see the demise of the Conservative Party - as someone said "Brexit destroys its children". I agree that Brexit was the most significant political act in my experience (since 1953) it was also the worst by a long way. That the two main parties will not even talk about it will lead to the demise, or significant change to both. Bring it on, along with PR
The Tories thought that Brexit was their golden ticket to keep on winning, even after 4 terms where the outcomes for most people were extremely poor.
Brexit offered up it's headline, £350m per week extra to the NHS and in doing so made any future bus based political claim look extremely dodgy, as NHS waiting lists continue to climb. The Tories have put more than that into the NHS since, apparently, but you certainly wouldn't feel that and for that to be significant it had to be at above inflation rates and health inflation has it's own index, which runs hotter than RPI or the property value removed fiddle that is CPI.
Brexit's other biggy was on migration. Leave the EU they said and we can leave Single Market "free movement" and control our borders. This has been an even more obvious con and failure. The moment we left the EU, the graph on inward migration numbers took a steeply upward turn. Net migration has been close to 3/4 million p.a. for the past two years. This is never fully explained but must be because of a Tory con on reducing numbers to ten's of thousands, as they hand out visas like confetti. It is even more hilarious given that every racist in Britain voted Leave to cut foreigner numbers, but that while EU citizens returned to the likes of Latvia and Estonia, the huge wave of replacements surging in have been mainly from North Africa, the Middle East and Asia.
One can only assume that while Tories talk down migrant numbers, they see them as the only means they can find to boost the UK's stagnant GDP growth, which they accept as being a bigger priority. It can only have prevented still worse figures on GDP, but it has not prevented thousands of pubs, shops and restaurants closing and most high streets turning into deserted disaster areas, with mainly charity shops, takeaways & betting shops remaining. As brexiter's pride in their local towns and small cities are rubbed into their faces. Meanwhile Sunak is claiming it's all turning around based on a return to 2% inflation. People know in their bones it's a depression the Tories, austerity and Brexit created in this sacred realm of pothole land.
The British public know in their hearts that Brexit is the biggest cause of the UK's failings, but are not ready to fully confront that as yet. The Labour and LibDem parties needed to play the issue down in order to maximise their votes with the remaining 1/3 that are Leave supporters. As the winning side who ultimately lost their country and prosperity gradually convert to their senses or end up pushing up the daisies and time passes, the truly awfulness of the referendum will be forgotten and the public will one day wish to go there again, but it's too soon in Kier's 1st term. I do hope against hope that the LibDems will be Official Opposition, pushing Labour in that direction and on other good works.
In my life (born 1948) the best political decision made was to join the EEC (thank you Harold Macmillan). The worst was BREXIT.
There is no doubt that there was a significant protest component to the LEAVE vote, and that various actors played a nefarious role in manipulating the xenophobia of the English electorate.
My opinion is that the political situation in Britain is very unstable, much as it is in the US, and for basically the same reasons; people feel they are unrepresented, their interests are ignored or, worse still, actions are taken by the ruling political elite that are directly against the interests of the mass of the population.
While a hung Parliament is unlikely, it is almost certain that some very raucous elements are going to be elected and that the frustration in the Country will be reflected in the political arena.
Add to that the incredible fragility of the British economy, and the unlikelihood of any improvement being made. In fact, downhill is the likely trajectory whoever is in power, but is certain with Starmer and co. in charge.
Which makes you wonder where the wrecking ball will be aimed next time. Let's hope it isn't supporting Reform in large numbers, or whatever the Farage vehicle is called then.
At the time I thought it was potentially the most significant political act of my adult life. Now I am sure of it and you have expressed it succinctly.
i broadly agree - although people need to resist the temptation to peddle the lazy trope of Brexit being delivered by the angry red wall - yes when you look at votes as a % it looks persuasive - i,e, 72% of Clacton yada yada (but how many actual votes)
When total votes are analyzed it's clear that the majority came from relatively well-off areas in the South, Southwest, Midland s etc
so please don't discount the power of the Red Corduroy trouser brigade in getting Brexit over the line
See Prof Danny Dorling work on this
I think you might be giving the electorate too much of a collective personality in 2016. That whole chuck a brick narrative gained traction mostly after the fact, at least it seems to me. A lot of people didn’t think/care/know much about the EU until the ref. In the end the numbers of disparate groups just added up under a hazy umbrella. This time the electorate is a lot more conscious about wanting to give the Tories a kicking.
A lot of people don't think/care/know much about politics in general, but still have strong and sincerely held political opinions that usually involve someone needing a kicking.
“They feel angry and betrayed”
But (as in France), there is no magical short cut to make everyone happy. There is no mystical macroeconomic sauce that politicians can boil up to put everything right.
What is possible is a series of microeconomic (and constitutional) reforms that will be expensive in the short term and will probably have negligible measurable effect for 10 years.
Quo Vadis Britannia?
I was living and working in Derby at the time of the Ref, a town which was Brexity, and with some depressing orbital estates, but which was generally thriving economically - Rolls-Royce, Toyota, the railways. I don't buy this "protest against neglect" line at all, because when I out canvassing on the streets against Brexit or talking to people in the pub or when waiting outside the school gates what i heard was "We'll send the immigrants back". They thought that Brexit would get rid of migrants from South Asia. People at Rolls-Royce and Toyota, for example, were warned that voting Leave would imperil these businesses and their jobs, but they went ahead and voted Leave anyway, because their loathing of "forrins" was far greater than their wish to keep jobs for their children and grandchildren.
The Brexit vote was an expression of little-Englander inferiority/superiority xenophobia and not much else and its about time that Leavers took responsibility for their catastrophic decision . Anyway, I'm living Scotland now, with a much healthier political climate
I live in a similar red brick mid-England town & racism is endemic along with sexism & homophobia. They’re mostly low level but they’re everywhere & Farage & co (together with events looming in France & USA) will only legitimise & allow them to be out & proud over next few years.
Those who live in cosmopolitan big cities & much of the media & political class simply have no idea how much resentment little Englanders harbour for what was initially tolerance of, & is now seen as encouragement for, those different from their perception of whom we all should be.
Just lookout for that Reform vote share.
It would be justice done to see the demise of the Conservative Party - as someone said "Brexit destroys its children". I agree that Brexit was the most significant political act in my experience (since 1953) it was also the worst by a long way. That the two main parties will not even talk about it will lead to the demise, or significant change to both. Bring it on, along with PR
The Tories thought that Brexit was their golden ticket to keep on winning, even after 4 terms where the outcomes for most people were extremely poor.
Brexit offered up it's headline, £350m per week extra to the NHS and in doing so made any future bus based political claim look extremely dodgy, as NHS waiting lists continue to climb. The Tories have put more than that into the NHS since, apparently, but you certainly wouldn't feel that and for that to be significant it had to be at above inflation rates and health inflation has it's own index, which runs hotter than RPI or the property value removed fiddle that is CPI.
Brexit's other biggy was on migration. Leave the EU they said and we can leave Single Market "free movement" and control our borders. This has been an even more obvious con and failure. The moment we left the EU, the graph on inward migration numbers took a steeply upward turn. Net migration has been close to 3/4 million p.a. for the past two years. This is never fully explained but must be because of a Tory con on reducing numbers to ten's of thousands, as they hand out visas like confetti. It is even more hilarious given that every racist in Britain voted Leave to cut foreigner numbers, but that while EU citizens returned to the likes of Latvia and Estonia, the huge wave of replacements surging in have been mainly from North Africa, the Middle East and Asia.
One can only assume that while Tories talk down migrant numbers, they see them as the only means they can find to boost the UK's stagnant GDP growth, which they accept as being a bigger priority. It can only have prevented still worse figures on GDP, but it has not prevented thousands of pubs, shops and restaurants closing and most high streets turning into deserted disaster areas, with mainly charity shops, takeaways & betting shops remaining. As brexiter's pride in their local towns and small cities are rubbed into their faces. Meanwhile Sunak is claiming it's all turning around based on a return to 2% inflation. People know in their bones it's a depression the Tories, austerity and Brexit created in this sacred realm of pothole land.
The British public know in their hearts that Brexit is the biggest cause of the UK's failings, but are not ready to fully confront that as yet. The Labour and LibDem parties needed to play the issue down in order to maximise their votes with the remaining 1/3 that are Leave supporters. As the winning side who ultimately lost their country and prosperity gradually convert to their senses or end up pushing up the daisies and time passes, the truly awfulness of the referendum will be forgotten and the public will one day wish to go there again, but it's too soon in Kier's 1st term. I do hope against hope that the LibDems will be Official Opposition, pushing Labour in that direction and on other good works.
In my life (born 1948) the best political decision made was to join the EEC (thank you Harold Macmillan). The worst was BREXIT.
There is no doubt that there was a significant protest component to the LEAVE vote, and that various actors played a nefarious role in manipulating the xenophobia of the English electorate.
My opinion is that the political situation in Britain is very unstable, much as it is in the US, and for basically the same reasons; people feel they are unrepresented, their interests are ignored or, worse still, actions are taken by the ruling political elite that are directly against the interests of the mass of the population.
While a hung Parliament is unlikely, it is almost certain that some very raucous elements are going to be elected and that the frustration in the Country will be reflected in the political arena.
Add to that the incredible fragility of the British economy, and the unlikelihood of any improvement being made. In fact, downhill is the likely trajectory whoever is in power, but is certain with Starmer and co. in charge.
Which makes you wonder where the wrecking ball will be aimed next time. Let's hope it isn't supporting Reform in large numbers, or whatever the Farage vehicle is called then.
At the time I thought it was potentially the most significant political act of my adult life. Now I am sure of it and you have expressed it succinctly.