Why the Brexiters are so convinced the “riots in France” argument is a slam dunk for Brexit - and how it exposes their deep irrationality Many Brexiters across social media have enjoyed sharing pictures of the civil unrest in France over the past week. Even when it is occasionally not actually footage from our next-door neighbours they have been putting about but in fact, images from riots in America at different times over the last several years. This is deeply ironic given the Brexiters like to use the fact that bad stuff is happening in France as proof positive that leaving the EU was the right thing, when they would never argue that because several sorts of undesirable things take place in the US all the time, that means we should cut off all relations with the Americans. Although, having said that, they almost are crazy enough to argue that now given Biden is president, so I guess I should watch it with my ridiculous analogies. In the 2020s, what seems so nuts as to be parody one day will be taken as assumed beliefs the next.
Interesting Tory Tobias Ellwood has put his head above the parapet and said Brexit has failed and we should rejoin the CU and SM. More than any prominent Labour politician has, he knows they are going into opposition and as we have said before the clamour for growth will come from the Tories in opposition pushing the CU and SM whilst Labour will be left wanting..........One is a natural party of government and the other Opposition, you begin to see why.
Current ten year government bond yields (borrowing rates) :
UK : 4.53%
France : 2.96%
Greece : 3.807%
(Whatever happened to the "Greek crisis" when you need it ?!?)
The wider point though is that whatever Euro schadenfreude the Brexiteers can gleefully unearth, none of this is relevant to where our clear national economic interest lies. Re-joining the SM and CU for example would be worth twelve-fold any benefit from the CPTPP (Resolution Foundation).
The Brexit tabloids have been jumping up and down with glee at Germany entering a technical or business recession - which again, most of her citizens will barely notice. The same though cannot be said about our 8.7% inflation combined with zero growth - not least because of our much higher debt levels.
It seems Brexit has not only failed, but also now run out of ideas - no-one is talking about CPTPP "benefits" anymore.
...why do the Brexiters engage in such spurious arguments? There are two main reasons. One is that they don’t have any good arguments for Brexit left, so they have to reach into the bottom of the barrel and find the “riots in France = imposing trade sanctions on ourselves was a great idea” card next to the “Vaccine rollout! Vaccine rollout!”.
Brexiters never had any good arguments, nothing that would withstand rigorous scrutiny from experts. What they had were lies, slogans and assumptions. Their Economists for Brexit were led by Prof Patrick Minford. In 81-2 Thatcher gave him control over the Treasury and Bank of England and he created a home grown recession from Monetarism, 5 million real unemployed, 20% of industry gone for ever, an average 300 people going for every advertised job ( me being one of them) and 100 year old firms with full order order books going to the wall as unable to finance their cash flow.
Round Two and Minford predicted that Brexit would boost the UK economy by 7%. Mainstream economists forecasted a drop of 4%. Analysis since in 3 studies found that it had dropped between 4% ( or 5.1%) and 5.5%, after removing factors such a Covid.
Round three and Minford had become the advisor to one Liz Truss. Within 4 weeks, she had crashed the economy and we now have higher interest rates and mortgage rates than even southern Europe, not yet peaked, with cost of living misery compounded.
Minford's model is not based on much that is real. It relies on assuming all shipping costs and overheads being the same in the world. Having one price would make life very simple for Fedex or Kuhn & Nagel, but life and the economy are not as simple as the Tory right's most favoured economist. At least the Nazi's got something right and bet on James Maynard Keynes.
As you said, the potential of Brexit ever being anywhere remotely a success hinged on the assumption that it would break the EU.
A lot of the famous (now infamous) Brexiter claims are built on this.
For example "we hold all the cards" or "they need us more than we need them".
If the "other side" is the EU then these are just ridiculous, as we all witnessed.
However if the "other side" is any of the smaller EU countries individually, e.g. Denmark, Austria, Belgium, then they would have contained some truth.
Which in turn should have made it obvious to even the most enthusiastic Leave supporter that this would simply not happen as it would not be in the interest of any EU member to be in this situation.
Let alone any of the smaller ones.
Then again, some Brexiters were deluded enough to think that not only would Ireland leave as well but somehow "rejoin" the UK.
I am not sure there is any substance on this world a normal person could consume which would make them believe that.
Estonia did not have Scotland's history of heavy industry then lost and not replaced with anything. It is not so isolated on the extreme edge of Europe and has a better climate. The demographics and general health of people in Scotland are bottom level in Europe.
Besides Estonia has had thirty odd years to recover from Communism. How long might Scotland take
As the roman-candle-carrying-beer-drinkin’-red-white-and-blue-bald-eagles soar across the US in honor of American Independence, I figured we should talk about a country that will never experience that feeling…Scotland.
Funny how Estonia, with about a fifth of the population of Scotland and a language which hardly anyone apart from the Finns can understand, has made a go of independence then?
Interesting Tory Tobias Ellwood has put his head above the parapet and said Brexit has failed and we should rejoin the CU and SM. More than any prominent Labour politician has, he knows they are going into opposition and as we have said before the clamour for growth will come from the Tories in opposition pushing the CU and SM whilst Labour will be left wanting..........One is a natural party of government and the other Opposition, you begin to see why.
Current ten year government bond yields (borrowing rates) :
UK : 4.53%
France : 2.96%
Greece : 3.807%
(Whatever happened to the "Greek crisis" when you need it ?!?)
The wider point though is that whatever Euro schadenfreude the Brexiteers can gleefully unearth, none of this is relevant to where our clear national economic interest lies. Re-joining the SM and CU for example would be worth twelve-fold any benefit from the CPTPP (Resolution Foundation).
The Brexit tabloids have been jumping up and down with glee at Germany entering a technical or business recession - which again, most of her citizens will barely notice. The same though cannot be said about our 8.7% inflation combined with zero growth - not least because of our much higher debt levels.
It seems Brexit has not only failed, but also now run out of ideas - no-one is talking about CPTPP "benefits" anymore.
...why do the Brexiters engage in such spurious arguments? There are two main reasons. One is that they don’t have any good arguments for Brexit left, so they have to reach into the bottom of the barrel and find the “riots in France = imposing trade sanctions on ourselves was a great idea” card next to the “Vaccine rollout! Vaccine rollout!”.
Brexiters never had any good arguments, nothing that would withstand rigorous scrutiny from experts. What they had were lies, slogans and assumptions. Their Economists for Brexit were led by Prof Patrick Minford. In 81-2 Thatcher gave him control over the Treasury and Bank of England and he created a home grown recession from Monetarism, 5 million real unemployed, 20% of industry gone for ever, an average 300 people going for every advertised job ( me being one of them) and 100 year old firms with full order order books going to the wall as unable to finance their cash flow.
Round Two and Minford predicted that Brexit would boost the UK economy by 7%. Mainstream economists forecasted a drop of 4%. Analysis since in 3 studies found that it had dropped between 4% ( or 5.1%) and 5.5%, after removing factors such a Covid.
Round three and Minford had become the advisor to one Liz Truss. Within 4 weeks, she had crashed the economy and we now have higher interest rates and mortgage rates than even southern Europe, not yet peaked, with cost of living misery compounded.
Minford's model is not based on much that is real. It relies on assuming all shipping costs and overheads being the same in the world. Having one price would make life very simple for Fedex or Kuhn & Nagel, but life and the economy are not as simple as the Tory right's most favoured economist. At least the Nazi's got something right and bet on James Maynard Keynes.
As you said, the potential of Brexit ever being anywhere remotely a success hinged on the assumption that it would break the EU.
A lot of the famous (now infamous) Brexiter claims are built on this.
For example "we hold all the cards" or "they need us more than we need them".
If the "other side" is the EU then these are just ridiculous, as we all witnessed.
However if the "other side" is any of the smaller EU countries individually, e.g. Denmark, Austria, Belgium, then they would have contained some truth.
Which in turn should have made it obvious to even the most enthusiastic Leave supporter that this would simply not happen as it would not be in the interest of any EU member to be in this situation.
Let alone any of the smaller ones.
Then again, some Brexiters were deluded enough to think that not only would Ireland leave as well but somehow "rejoin" the UK.
I am not sure there is any substance on this world a normal person could consume which would make them believe that.
In addition, Estonians of working age, mostly speak other languages, often English.
Estonia did not have Scotland's history of heavy industry then lost and not replaced with anything. It is not so isolated on the extreme edge of Europe and has a better climate. The demographics and general health of people in Scotland are bottom level in Europe.
Besides Estonia has had thirty odd years to recover from Communism. How long might Scotland take
Ask Peter: Why Is Scottish Independence a Suicide Pact?
Zeihan on Geopolitics
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VCwrbv-_PNo
10,733 views 4 Jul 2023 #scotland #independence #brexit
As the roman-candle-carrying-beer-drinkin’-red-white-and-blue-bald-eagles soar across the US in honor of American Independence, I figured we should talk about a country that will never experience that feeling…Scotland.
Funny how Estonia, with about a fifth of the population of Scotland and a language which hardly anyone apart from the Finns can understand, has made a go of independence then?