What can rural Slovakia tell us about Brexit? I got a lot of weird stares from friends in London when I said that part of my itinerary for the holidays this year would take in rural Slovakia. It was as if I was going somewhere exotic, remote and possibly dangerous as opposed to somewhere only a little over a thousand miles away, still in safe old Europe. There is so much of our own continent that is off the radar for even your metropolitan liberal wokerati London elite, it seems.
I went to Slovakia in 1999 and travelled about a bit. Bratislava was a nice place but shabby but outside it the country was dirt poor, as NT says. People were harvesting in he fields by hand with big scythes, for example, and still travelled by horse and cart. (Of course that was much Greener than using fossil fuels though). I went back briefly in 2004 but haven't been back since,. I also travelled around the Baltic states and Poland in 1998 and again the cities were shabby but OK but the sticks were really pretty poor. Haven't been back since but I can well believe that EU membership has transformed these places. Look at what happened to Ireland -- a backward agrarian theocracy in the 1960s and now with a standard of living higher than the UKs.
Most people you come across casually when outside the Uk have only a passing interest in Brexit.
Countries that have been economically impacted by Brexit and see the political instability caused to N Ireland have a different view to that expressed by casual acquaintances when abroad.
The people that will be most influential in deciding reentry will be those that understand the complexity of the withdrawal and the odiousness of those the UK voters, in their wisdom ( by a large majority in the 2019 election) entrusted to represent the people of the UK.
Rejoining , as an easy exercise , is just one more example of British exceptionalism.
I think rejoining will turn out to be paradoxically easy and hard.
It will be easy because, unlike withdrawal, the terms are well documented and known in advance. There might be transition phases if the UK has managed to deviate from the alignment it once had but overall it will likely be in a position similar to EFTA countries which join in the 1990s.
It will be hard because, again unlike withdrawal, it will require massive majority buy-in before this can realistically be attempted.
While polls suggest that there is already a (small) majority, it will have to prove to not just be substantial but also sustained.
Which probably means it will have to grow organically over a longer period than most enthusiasts would like.
It will require continued effort and patience which are both not easy achieve when we are hit by one crisis after another.
Geopolitical issues, Trump 2 etc., major unknowns.
Global instability could either hinder or aid rejoining.
Media agenda/ownership in the UK a major stumbling block as masses too easily manipulated.
A populace undereducated in the main and those ,Eton overeducated , manipulating the masses , allowing for the continued global dominance ( truly world beating) money laundering/tax avoidance .
The real reason why Brexit happened has not changed, only requiring a pivot to the oil states and away from the Russia and the Chinese.
The ability of the masses to understand and care has yet to be demonstrated , as you say, needs to be overwhelmingly understood.
Part of the process to reach this understanding and care by the population will need to be a concerted effort to address all misinformation that people have been feed over decades and misconception/misinterpretations they might have created on their own.
In a world ripe with alternative facts this will be very hard to do, potentially even frustratingly painful.
The city and its satellite industries of tax/legal have a lot of skin in the game .... they will not surrender their very lucrative trade without one hell of a fight. The film Spiders Web is an excellent insight into this ‘offshore’ world. Very powerful vested interests will need to be defeated. Bon courage !
The Brexit apologists who now raise the (non) issue of the euro and alleged difficulty of re-joining are unwittingly admitting we had such a good deal in the first place that we can't possibly get it back. All the more reason to continue to fight to reverse their economic and political vandalism. As Patience Wheatcroft recently writes, Farage would hardly have just thrown in the towel if the referendum had been 52/48 the other way.
By the way, when I mention that Nick Tyrone is probably the only journalist who has done any serious work on the mood and views of the member states - the Brexit apologists usually shut up pretty quickly.
I think the claim that "we had such a good deal in the first place that we can't possibly get it back" will have to be unpicked very thoroughly.
If we seriously look at the famous opt-outs then we realize that they were only sold as something positive when in reality they were intended to keep improvements out of reach of the people.
The the opt-out of the Schengen Agreement as an example.
The government essentially signed up to all the features that make their live easier, like access to data bases and information sharing between members' law enforcement agencies.
The opt-out is specifically designed to keep people burdened with passport formalities when leaving or re-entering the country.
Nobody can tell me that the British love queuing so much that they would have been angry if that one opportunity to do so had been "taken from them".
I went to Slovakia in 1999 and travelled about a bit. Bratislava was a nice place but shabby but outside it the country was dirt poor, as NT says. People were harvesting in he fields by hand with big scythes, for example, and still travelled by horse and cart. (Of course that was much Greener than using fossil fuels though). I went back briefly in 2004 but haven't been back since,. I also travelled around the Baltic states and Poland in 1998 and again the cities were shabby but OK but the sticks were really pretty poor. Haven't been back since but I can well believe that EU membership has transformed these places. Look at what happened to Ireland -- a backward agrarian theocracy in the 1960s and now with a standard of living higher than the UKs.
Most people you come across casually when outside the Uk have only a passing interest in Brexit.
Countries that have been economically impacted by Brexit and see the political instability caused to N Ireland have a different view to that expressed by casual acquaintances when abroad.
The people that will be most influential in deciding reentry will be those that understand the complexity of the withdrawal and the odiousness of those the UK voters, in their wisdom ( by a large majority in the 2019 election) entrusted to represent the people of the UK.
Rejoining , as an easy exercise , is just one more example of British exceptionalism.
I think rejoining will turn out to be paradoxically easy and hard.
It will be easy because, unlike withdrawal, the terms are well documented and known in advance. There might be transition phases if the UK has managed to deviate from the alignment it once had but overall it will likely be in a position similar to EFTA countries which join in the 1990s.
It will be hard because, again unlike withdrawal, it will require massive majority buy-in before this can realistically be attempted.
While polls suggest that there is already a (small) majority, it will have to prove to not just be substantial but also sustained.
Which probably means it will have to grow organically over a longer period than most enthusiasts would like.
It will require continued effort and patience which are both not easy achieve when we are hit by one crisis after another.
Agree.
Geopolitical issues, Trump 2 etc., major unknowns.
Global instability could either hinder or aid rejoining.
Media agenda/ownership in the UK a major stumbling block as masses too easily manipulated.
A populace undereducated in the main and those ,Eton overeducated , manipulating the masses , allowing for the continued global dominance ( truly world beating) money laundering/tax avoidance .
The real reason why Brexit happened has not changed, only requiring a pivot to the oil states and away from the Russia and the Chinese.
The ability of the masses to understand and care has yet to be demonstrated , as you say, needs to be overwhelmingly understood.
Indeed.
Part of the process to reach this understanding and care by the population will need to be a concerted effort to address all misinformation that people have been feed over decades and misconception/misinterpretations they might have created on their own.
In a world ripe with alternative facts this will be very hard to do, potentially even frustratingly painful.
Media is key and therefore I’m not overly optimistic.
The city and its satellite industries of tax/legal have a lot of skin in the game .... they will not surrender their very lucrative trade without one hell of a fight. The film Spiders Web is an excellent insight into this ‘offshore’ world. Very powerful vested interests will need to be defeated. Bon courage !
The Brexit apologists who now raise the (non) issue of the euro and alleged difficulty of re-joining are unwittingly admitting we had such a good deal in the first place that we can't possibly get it back. All the more reason to continue to fight to reverse their economic and political vandalism. As Patience Wheatcroft recently writes, Farage would hardly have just thrown in the towel if the referendum had been 52/48 the other way.
By the way, when I mention that Nick Tyrone is probably the only journalist who has done any serious work on the mood and views of the member states - the Brexit apologists usually shut up pretty quickly.
I think the claim that "we had such a good deal in the first place that we can't possibly get it back" will have to be unpicked very thoroughly.
If we seriously look at the famous opt-outs then we realize that they were only sold as something positive when in reality they were intended to keep improvements out of reach of the people.
The the opt-out of the Schengen Agreement as an example.
The government essentially signed up to all the features that make their live easier, like access to data bases and information sharing between members' law enforcement agencies.
The opt-out is specifically designed to keep people burdened with passport formalities when leaving or re-entering the country.
Nobody can tell me that the British love queuing so much that they would have been angry if that one opportunity to do so had been "taken from them".