July 4th was fantastic night. I am over the moon about the political impact. We are suddenly being governed by professionals, experts and grownups. Oxfordshire has gone from true blue to a LIbDem stronghold or Labour, much as the councils outside of Oxford and Banbury towns, which remain Labour.
The Tories knew that all the Oxfordshire seats they held were all vulnerable and yet there was almost no ground game visible. I think I received 3 leaflets from them, probably via paid deliverers and the Royal Mail, there was no visible door knocking and I only saw one Tory poster, a giant one, as only appear at the homes of senior figures. They have relatively few councillors left and almost no activists. The Tory Party is now mainly a pool of donated and dodgy money, bidding for the attention of needs of multi millionaires and billionaires, or developers seeking planning permission. That pool of money as well as public funds available will now largely dry up.
With Farridge's mob splitting the right and yet a merged version being a nasty death knell for them in much of Britain, they are a long way down a hole. Labour's majorities in seats are often small, but they have so many of them and the ability to call on the LibDems and others if they should need to after the next election. Also, the demographics for the Tories are poor for the under 65's and terminal for the under 50's, which are only going to get worse in years ahead. Meanwhile, the LIbDems have probably not topped out their potential and could take further Tory seats.
A new era has dawned and Europe will have to play a bigger part.
"They now ring the bells, but they will soon wring their hands."
That will be the inevitable result of this BS election. Labour MPs and supporters (like you) are overjoyed at your "mandate". Except that you don't have one. 66% of voters chose other than Labour. The frustration of that group will grow as Labour impose idiotic policies in just about every area, domestic and foreign.
The meeting between David Lammy and Donald Trump should be interesting, except Trump may deny Lammy a visa to visit to visit the US (one can only hope).
I am actually na LibDem. They had the best manifesto, but this time for the 1st time in a GE I voted Labour and the near forever Tory MP is gone.
The grown ups have taken charge, assisted by experts. Tory corruption, placements based on loyalty from total incompetents is all gone. £500m to Rwanda for nothing, tens of billions to their mates on PPE, about 60 of them on various sexual predator investigations. What a useless and dreadfully aweful crewe they were. Why anyone would vote for them, or the know nothing, lazy populists of Reform/UKIP is a total mystery?
No argument from me about the Tories, I have detested them for decades.
Your Lib-Dems got significantly fewer votes than Reform. This suggests to me that there is a shift taking place in English politics (Reform/UKIP will never get anywhere in Scotland, where they are regarded as an English nationalist party). The question is; do Farage & co. have the imagination and energy to build a nationalist party that can completely replace the Tories.
Tommy Robinson (I can almost hear you shudder in loathing) has a big rally in London for late July. He has invited Farage to speak at the rally. It is likely that 100,000+ are going to be there.
Can Farage overcome his Dulwich College snobbery and embrace a real English working class crowd?
Previously he has contemptuously referred to people who follow Tommy as "drunken, tattooed thugs", which is a typical attitude of a public schoolboy.
He should grasp the opportunity. This is how Hitler started and gained power. And the truth is that Hitler, without the war that Britain initiated, was the most popular Leader Germany ever had.
The thing is; Labour is going to fail. Britain is not going to improve, in fact the decline is going to accelerate. In six months Starmer is going to be struggling badly, and it is quite possible he will have involved Britain in a major war in the Middle East.
Any historian of any value can see what is happening in England today. The society is broken, nothing is fit for purpose, failure is everywhere, and so is frustration. Wages are static or declining, the cost of living is increasing, poverty and real destitution are increasing.
Coupled with that is a political and government system that seems to be completely unable to provide for (or even care about) the welfare of the general population.
This is a classic situation of opportunity for a populist politician. Oswald Mosley would be in his element today.
I find this very interesting as an observer. I was born in England but now live in the US (TG). I support Jill Stein for President in 2024 (some neo-nazi!)
Sorry, but calling Hitler "Germany's most popular leader" and blaming Britain for "starting the second world war" is some neo-Nazi level bs, however much you tell us you support a green leader I've never heard of to waste your vote on this year in the US. And if your only response to my noticing your admiration for that guy is to call me names...
Labour should make a big deal about agreeing to Reform’s demand for a referendum on changing the voting system - and tag an EU advisory ref on exactly the same day.
In the recent election the mean age where you were likelier to vote Tory than not was 71. Five years ago it was 45... So in five years it will be 97... Maybe
The chances of the Tory party embracing rejoining the EU are zero while Reform are a threat to its very existence. Much more chance that Labour will move in that direction if improved relations with the EU don't bring much improvement in trade.
The difference between the LibDems 3.5m ( 12% ) and Reform's 4m ( 14%) is that the LibDems did not go for national vote share as previously. They went for the election as it is. 650 individual elections under FPTP and they won 72 of them ( 11% of seats ), their highest ever tally by 10 as the LibDems ( they won a landslide in 1918 as Lloyd George's Liberal Party), an incredible result after 11 seats in 2019 and the biggest 3rd party toll under FPTP in the world.
What Farridge and Reform did was to swan around at national level, given vast amounts of free publicity by broadcasters including the BBC plus the right wing press. They had little ground game, as it's too much like hard work for them. They won just 2 councillors in the recent locals, a joke result and barely a fringe. If Reform throw in with the extreme right then they show themselves up to be in line with their racist nationalists, as their candidates keep being found out as and nothing like the centre right they claim to be.
Is anyone (in Labour or anywhere) talking about just how hard "getting Brexit done" would be? I know better than to ask for a vision of what "done" looks like, but the work of replacing/duplicating the regulatory, financial, and diplomatic systems that were covered by being in the EU is one heavy lift. I imagine one way to deal with the fantasy nature of Brexit is to show what the "getting" part looks like, if "done" is off-limits.
I believe deeply in proper PR voting, not AV and the result would be different in vote percentages and seat shares under other systems. But under the system we have, the successful parties played the system as it is rather than the one they would or might like. 650 separate elections with a vast amount of tactical voting which boosted Labour, LibDems and the Greens, as people went for their 1st, 2nd or 3rd progressive choice in order to beat the Tories and Reform UK became effectively a taxi filling fringe, with little ability to make any impact. I predicted that Farage would continue his lazy careless, arrogant, narcissistic approach to Parliament or his constituents as he did in the EU. He failed to turn up on the first momentous day. Says it all really.
I am enjoying Suella v. Kemi -- the battle of the Harpies. Quos Deus vult perdere, prius dementat or Quem Iuppiter vult ... The Tories seem determined to destroy themselves, leaving bits of carrion for vulture Farage.
Correct me if I'm wrong. But at times, reading this post, I have the impression that the electorate is seen as a kind of fixed or frozen socio-economic structure, bit like the Eiffel Tower, solid and unchangeable. People go up or down it on the stairs (slowly) or in the lifts (faster), but the underlying electorate structure never changes. So political success or failure is just about how different political parties interact with how people are distributed over a fixed structure determined by demographics, education, wealth, etc. Almost as if a particular person in a particular position will usually vote X, Y, or Z, and if they don't in one election, they will return to their pre-determined voting pattern in the next. Al politicians do is think about giving the Tower a new coat of paint, or dangling some fairy lights over it.
I quite like this metaphor, with those at the top enjoying the view, and ignoring who maintains the feet of the structure. And those at the bottom can't even see the top. Most of us walk up a few flight of stairs and then get too tired and stop, or just die trying.
So to come to my point. I don't think Brexit is a major issue in the minds of most people, who have bills to pay, are worried about their children's education, or how to look after their elderly parents. And if they do think about "something else" its usually involves a cheap flight and a beach, or if Manchester United are going to screwup again (hopefully yes).
Can we just drop the Brexit bit. We all know its was destined to be failure given the incompetence of our politicians. We all know they have not suddenly become competent now. So let move on, and start to think (again) about what really counts, i.e. jobs, schools, hospitals, and if Spurs can finally win something. Forget Brexit and Europe, and start changing once and for all Britain's Eiffel Tower.
Bernard, unfortunately a hole in GDP of £100bn-120bn, including a shortfall in tax revenue of at least £40bn cannot be forgotten. This includes exports and importers/manufacturers, all heavily disadvantaged, less jobs, less quality jobs, less business or opportunities and less rights. Roaming charges return, van and bands on tour can only do two drops before returning to the UK and you can only spend up to 90 days there before returning. These problems are just the tip of huge iceberg of disadvantage from leaving the EU.
I agree, but the UK won’t be rejoining in the next 10 years. And most people, in the UK and Europe, are worried about the same things, jobs, pay, schools, doctors appointments, petrol costs, social housing, and no one appears to have a grip of the situation. Joining Europe again will never be a silver bullet. So it’s up to our politicians (God help is) to get their proverbial out and start digging.
Labour are going for Swiss style sectoral agreement, effectively chunks of the Single Market. That will build trust and support for further integration ahead. We could be on a fast train there in 5 years
Tiptoe back is the right approach, but I live across 4 different EU countries and the vast majority of people either have written off the UK or simply don’t care. That maybe good or not. Bet you it’s more like 10 years.
Andrew is that true. May's deal was a hard fought and unlikely compromise between two uncompromising sides. As I understand it, the situation for traders would have been a whole lot better and the drop in GDP and tax revenues ought to have been a lot less steep? Of course, maybe I got that wrong?
July 4th was fantastic night. I am over the moon about the political impact. We are suddenly being governed by professionals, experts and grownups. Oxfordshire has gone from true blue to a LIbDem stronghold or Labour, much as the councils outside of Oxford and Banbury towns, which remain Labour.
The Tories knew that all the Oxfordshire seats they held were all vulnerable and yet there was almost no ground game visible. I think I received 3 leaflets from them, probably via paid deliverers and the Royal Mail, there was no visible door knocking and I only saw one Tory poster, a giant one, as only appear at the homes of senior figures. They have relatively few councillors left and almost no activists. The Tory Party is now mainly a pool of donated and dodgy money, bidding for the attention of needs of multi millionaires and billionaires, or developers seeking planning permission. That pool of money as well as public funds available will now largely dry up.
With Farridge's mob splitting the right and yet a merged version being a nasty death knell for them in much of Britain, they are a long way down a hole. Labour's majorities in seats are often small, but they have so many of them and the ability to call on the LibDems and others if they should need to after the next election. Also, the demographics for the Tories are poor for the under 65's and terminal for the under 50's, which are only going to get worse in years ahead. Meanwhile, the LIbDems have probably not topped out their potential and could take further Tory seats.
A new era has dawned and Europe will have to play a bigger part.
"They now ring the bells, but they will soon wring their hands."
That will be the inevitable result of this BS election. Labour MPs and supporters (like you) are overjoyed at your "mandate". Except that you don't have one. 66% of voters chose other than Labour. The frustration of that group will grow as Labour impose idiotic policies in just about every area, domestic and foreign.
The meeting between David Lammy and Donald Trump should be interesting, except Trump may deny Lammy a visa to visit to visit the US (one can only hope).
I am actually na LibDem. They had the best manifesto, but this time for the 1st time in a GE I voted Labour and the near forever Tory MP is gone.
The grown ups have taken charge, assisted by experts. Tory corruption, placements based on loyalty from total incompetents is all gone. £500m to Rwanda for nothing, tens of billions to their mates on PPE, about 60 of them on various sexual predator investigations. What a useless and dreadfully aweful crewe they were. Why anyone would vote for them, or the know nothing, lazy populists of Reform/UKIP is a total mystery?
No argument from me about the Tories, I have detested them for decades.
Your Lib-Dems got significantly fewer votes than Reform. This suggests to me that there is a shift taking place in English politics (Reform/UKIP will never get anywhere in Scotland, where they are regarded as an English nationalist party). The question is; do Farage & co. have the imagination and energy to build a nationalist party that can completely replace the Tories.
Tommy Robinson (I can almost hear you shudder in loathing) has a big rally in London for late July. He has invited Farage to speak at the rally. It is likely that 100,000+ are going to be there.
Can Farage overcome his Dulwich College snobbery and embrace a real English working class crowd?
Previously he has contemptuously referred to people who follow Tommy as "drunken, tattooed thugs", which is a typical attitude of a public schoolboy.
He should grasp the opportunity. This is how Hitler started and gained power. And the truth is that Hitler, without the war that Britain initiated, was the most popular Leader Germany ever had.
The thing is; Labour is going to fail. Britain is not going to improve, in fact the decline is going to accelerate. In six months Starmer is going to be struggling badly, and it is quite possible he will have involved Britain in a major war in the Middle East.
All the ingredients for revolutionary change.
Wow! An actual neo Nazi.
What a ridiculous, juvenile, asinine comment.
Any historian of any value can see what is happening in England today. The society is broken, nothing is fit for purpose, failure is everywhere, and so is frustration. Wages are static or declining, the cost of living is increasing, poverty and real destitution are increasing.
Coupled with that is a political and government system that seems to be completely unable to provide for (or even care about) the welfare of the general population.
This is a classic situation of opportunity for a populist politician. Oswald Mosley would be in his element today.
I find this very interesting as an observer. I was born in England but now live in the US (TG). I support Jill Stein for President in 2024 (some neo-nazi!)
Sorry, but calling Hitler "Germany's most popular leader" and blaming Britain for "starting the second world war" is some neo-Nazi level bs, however much you tell us you support a green leader I've never heard of to waste your vote on this year in the US. And if your only response to my noticing your admiration for that guy is to call me names...
Labour should make a big deal about agreeing to Reform’s demand for a referendum on changing the voting system - and tag an EU advisory ref on exactly the same day.
In the recent election the mean age where you were likelier to vote Tory than not was 71. Five years ago it was 45... So in five years it will be 97... Maybe
The chances of the Tory party embracing rejoining the EU are zero while Reform are a threat to its very existence. Much more chance that Labour will move in that direction if improved relations with the EU don't bring much improvement in trade.
The difference between the LibDems 3.5m ( 12% ) and Reform's 4m ( 14%) is that the LibDems did not go for national vote share as previously. They went for the election as it is. 650 individual elections under FPTP and they won 72 of them ( 11% of seats ), their highest ever tally by 10 as the LibDems ( they won a landslide in 1918 as Lloyd George's Liberal Party), an incredible result after 11 seats in 2019 and the biggest 3rd party toll under FPTP in the world.
What Farridge and Reform did was to swan around at national level, given vast amounts of free publicity by broadcasters including the BBC plus the right wing press. They had little ground game, as it's too much like hard work for them. They won just 2 councillors in the recent locals, a joke result and barely a fringe. If Reform throw in with the extreme right then they show themselves up to be in line with their racist nationalists, as their candidates keep being found out as and nothing like the centre right they claim to be.
Is anyone (in Labour or anywhere) talking about just how hard "getting Brexit done" would be? I know better than to ask for a vision of what "done" looks like, but the work of replacing/duplicating the regulatory, financial, and diplomatic systems that were covered by being in the EU is one heavy lift. I imagine one way to deal with the fantasy nature of Brexit is to show what the "getting" part looks like, if "done" is off-limits.
66% of the vote went OTHER than labour: 412 seats.
12.2% of the vote went to Lib-Dem: 72 seats.
14.3% of the vote went to Reform: 5 seats.
This is a democratic election?
No, this is bullshit.
I believe deeply in proper PR voting, not AV and the result would be different in vote percentages and seat shares under other systems. But under the system we have, the successful parties played the system as it is rather than the one they would or might like. 650 separate elections with a vast amount of tactical voting which boosted Labour, LibDems and the Greens, as people went for their 1st, 2nd or 3rd progressive choice in order to beat the Tories and Reform UK became effectively a taxi filling fringe, with little ability to make any impact. I predicted that Farage would continue his lazy careless, arrogant, narcissistic approach to Parliament or his constituents as he did in the EU. He failed to turn up on the first momentous day. Says it all really.
I am enjoying Suella v. Kemi -- the battle of the Harpies. Quos Deus vult perdere, prius dementat or Quem Iuppiter vult ... The Tories seem determined to destroy themselves, leaving bits of carrion for vulture Farage.
Excrementum vincit cerebellum.
Correct me if I'm wrong. But at times, reading this post, I have the impression that the electorate is seen as a kind of fixed or frozen socio-economic structure, bit like the Eiffel Tower, solid and unchangeable. People go up or down it on the stairs (slowly) or in the lifts (faster), but the underlying electorate structure never changes. So political success or failure is just about how different political parties interact with how people are distributed over a fixed structure determined by demographics, education, wealth, etc. Almost as if a particular person in a particular position will usually vote X, Y, or Z, and if they don't in one election, they will return to their pre-determined voting pattern in the next. Al politicians do is think about giving the Tower a new coat of paint, or dangling some fairy lights over it.
I quite like this metaphor, with those at the top enjoying the view, and ignoring who maintains the feet of the structure. And those at the bottom can't even see the top. Most of us walk up a few flight of stairs and then get too tired and stop, or just die trying.
So to come to my point. I don't think Brexit is a major issue in the minds of most people, who have bills to pay, are worried about their children's education, or how to look after their elderly parents. And if they do think about "something else" its usually involves a cheap flight and a beach, or if Manchester United are going to screwup again (hopefully yes).
Can we just drop the Brexit bit. We all know its was destined to be failure given the incompetence of our politicians. We all know they have not suddenly become competent now. So let move on, and start to think (again) about what really counts, i.e. jobs, schools, hospitals, and if Spurs can finally win something. Forget Brexit and Europe, and start changing once and for all Britain's Eiffel Tower.
Bernard, unfortunately a hole in GDP of £100bn-120bn, including a shortfall in tax revenue of at least £40bn cannot be forgotten. This includes exports and importers/manufacturers, all heavily disadvantaged, less jobs, less quality jobs, less business or opportunities and less rights. Roaming charges return, van and bands on tour can only do two drops before returning to the UK and you can only spend up to 90 days there before returning. These problems are just the tip of huge iceberg of disadvantage from leaving the EU.
I agree, but the UK won’t be rejoining in the next 10 years. And most people, in the UK and Europe, are worried about the same things, jobs, pay, schools, doctors appointments, petrol costs, social housing, and no one appears to have a grip of the situation. Joining Europe again will never be a silver bullet. So it’s up to our politicians (God help is) to get their proverbial out and start digging.
Labour are going for Swiss style sectoral agreement, effectively chunks of the Single Market. That will build trust and support for further integration ahead. We could be on a fast train there in 5 years
Tiptoe back is the right approach, but I live across 4 different EU countries and the vast majority of people either have written off the UK or simply don’t care. That maybe good or not. Bet you it’s more like 10 years.
If Labour, for tactical reasons, had accepted Theresa May’s deal, the collapse of the Tories would have happened a bit earlier
Andrew is that true. May's deal was a hard fought and unlikely compromise between two uncompromising sides. As I understand it, the situation for traders would have been a whole lot better and the drop in GDP and tax revenues ought to have been a lot less steep? Of course, maybe I got that wrong?
Thanks! I think you are right. You have cheered me up no end.