A Brexit benefit finally discovered as all-Ireland trade massively increases In this Substack, I often lament about how much Brexit, which was supposed to be about increasing free trade and making the country less protectionist, has in fact dampened free trade and made Britain much more autarkic. So imagine my joy this week in hearing about a way in which Brexit has directly managed to increase trade between a part of the United Kingdom and a member state of the EU. I am referring to the fact that trade between Northern Ireland and Ireland increased massively in 2021. Exports from Northern Ireland to their southern neighbours were up 65%, or 3.9 billion Euros since Brexit got “done” at the end of 2020. Exports from Ireland to Northern Ireland were up 54%, or an historic high of 3.7 billion Euros.
I was 45 years an active Labour member but I won't support a party that continues to support economic damage to country while denying my children and grandchildren the right to find love, life or work in Europe, a party that ignores it's members wishes while currying favour with at best the miss led at the expense of honesty and belief.
Disclosure: I am not British, so no horse in the race.
But what occurs to me when reading comments such as this one about Starmer just being realistic (or, for that matter, similar comments on Biden's public pronouncements and tactical choices in the USA, etc.), is that they ignore the fact that you have to deal with the voters you can realistically reach, not the ones you wish to have instead. And the voters and prospective voters of your local centre-left party may just not be that inspired by, "okay guys, for the next ten years we need to not push back against all the stuff you despise and expect us to push back against, we are just going to be like the centre-right traditionally was but slightly better managers". And then the centre-left party leaders make a surprised Pikachu face when there is low turnout next election day (and blame the "far" left whose regulatory, tax and economic views are supported in the polls, and no surprise, because they are what was mainstream in the 1950s-1970s).
A major strategic blind spot in the UK centre-left commentariat seems to be that in contrast to the conservatives they haven't realised yet that there has been a realignment of the voters from the traditional poor versus rich conflict to a young/educated/diverse/urban versus old/uneducated/white/rural conflict. So, the conservative party mobilises all the latter block of voters, but Labour hasn't figured out yet that the other (and larger) block, including disillusioned former conservatives, would be up for grabs if they just committed to fighting for that block's views and interests. Instead they still try to make their 1/3 traditional Brexiter voters happy while antagonising their other 2/3 Remainer voters. Rather exasperating to watch from the outside.
Interesting that exports from N.I to ROI have increased by so much while imports to N.I from the UK have dropped. That must mean more manufacturing in N.I. I could not find numbers by industry, but note that medical supplies /Pharmaceutical are the largest group, Pfizer having plant in N.I. Raw ingredients for medicines can be imported through ROI, and there is high value added. Ireland's gain is UK loss, and the prognostication that there will likely be one nation of Ireland in the not too distant future is a definite possibility. The question is whether self interest will triumph over old hatreds. It could be messy, as Ireland generally does not have a history of accepting adverse democratic decisions.
You are spot on the Tories current brand is Brexit and to keep fighting it as a Totem.
Even they know its going shit but keep digging it up for the culture war to remind the working class we gave you what you wanted shame about your standard of living but hey it will get better in 50 years and food banks are free.
The target for Labour and Starmer is longer term to destroy the Tory brand as Blair did so they through losses dont know who they are or what they stand for. Starmer can replicate this from the centre and learn to concentrate on home affairs and not on foreign like Blair. As Starmer said be more like Wilson who won more elections than Blair stayed out of Vietnam and won a common market vote by being tricky.
But first he must defeat a amoral populist then hopefully get re elected then by stealth dismantle Brexit trade barriers.
Dear John,
Are you sure you want to support the Tories?
I was 45 years an active Labour member but I won't support a party that continues to support economic damage to country while denying my children and grandchildren the right to find love, life or work in Europe, a party that ignores it's members wishes while currying favour with at best the miss led at the expense of honesty and belief.
Disclosure: I am not British, so no horse in the race.
But what occurs to me when reading comments such as this one about Starmer just being realistic (or, for that matter, similar comments on Biden's public pronouncements and tactical choices in the USA, etc.), is that they ignore the fact that you have to deal with the voters you can realistically reach, not the ones you wish to have instead. And the voters and prospective voters of your local centre-left party may just not be that inspired by, "okay guys, for the next ten years we need to not push back against all the stuff you despise and expect us to push back against, we are just going to be like the centre-right traditionally was but slightly better managers". And then the centre-left party leaders make a surprised Pikachu face when there is low turnout next election day (and blame the "far" left whose regulatory, tax and economic views are supported in the polls, and no surprise, because they are what was mainstream in the 1950s-1970s).
A major strategic blind spot in the UK centre-left commentariat seems to be that in contrast to the conservatives they haven't realised yet that there has been a realignment of the voters from the traditional poor versus rich conflict to a young/educated/diverse/urban versus old/uneducated/white/rural conflict. So, the conservative party mobilises all the latter block of voters, but Labour hasn't figured out yet that the other (and larger) block, including disillusioned former conservatives, would be up for grabs if they just committed to fighting for that block's views and interests. Instead they still try to make their 1/3 traditional Brexiter voters happy while antagonising their other 2/3 Remainer voters. Rather exasperating to watch from the outside.
Interesting that exports from N.I to ROI have increased by so much while imports to N.I from the UK have dropped. That must mean more manufacturing in N.I. I could not find numbers by industry, but note that medical supplies /Pharmaceutical are the largest group, Pfizer having plant in N.I. Raw ingredients for medicines can be imported through ROI, and there is high value added. Ireland's gain is UK loss, and the prognostication that there will likely be one nation of Ireland in the not too distant future is a definite possibility. The question is whether self interest will triumph over old hatreds. It could be messy, as Ireland generally does not have a history of accepting adverse democratic decisions.
Nick
You are spot on the Tories current brand is Brexit and to keep fighting it as a Totem.
Even they know its going shit but keep digging it up for the culture war to remind the working class we gave you what you wanted shame about your standard of living but hey it will get better in 50 years and food banks are free.
The target for Labour and Starmer is longer term to destroy the Tory brand as Blair did so they through losses dont know who they are or what they stand for. Starmer can replicate this from the centre and learn to concentrate on home affairs and not on foreign like Blair. As Starmer said be more like Wilson who won more elections than Blair stayed out of Vietnam and won a common market vote by being tricky.
But first he must defeat a amoral populist then hopefully get re elected then by stealth dismantle Brexit trade barriers.