I recall a sage on BBC TV in the late 70's make a prediction that I have never forgotten. She said Thatcher would win the 79 election and the country would get progressively more right wing, right into the next century and well beyond. She was certainly right and not even New Labour winning 3 terms reversed the trend. How she managed that is anyone’s guess and it might have been no more than waving a finger in the air than being new Nostradamos?
On Blair’s 3rd term, I had the thought that Labour would surely not leave this behind to go leftward again, but that is exactly what they did, between Brown, the wrong Miliband and Corbyn and it failed. Jeremy couldn’t even win with a unique open goal from May’s inability to campaign in 2017 with their unpopular, uncosted policies on social care and tax cuts on big inheritance.
Deep analysis has been carried out by Yougov, one of the most effective pollsters on the British electorate. By far the biggest group is in the centre, but for various electoral, media and cultural issues that does not all go to the LibDems or SNP in Scotland etc. The next biggest group is the right + centre right and after that is the left + centre left. Of course these groups do shift around and the electoral system does not help, but that is a good reference point. So for the Left + Centre left to win, they need to take most of the centre voters. Yet in the majority of elections the Tories have been given the benefit of the doubt by the majority of centrist voters, even if they are not happy with them. That is all changing as now only 10% of voters under 50 are intending to vote Tory. Their voters are dying out and there is the opportunity of big change.
With a decent voting system, these ghastly extremists would be forming their own parties, rather than trying to take over Labour or the Conservative parties
But …. With PR the forces that keep ‘big tent’ political agglomerations together will be weakened. It’s a risk, but one we can no longer avoid, I think. We MUST have a reformed electoral system for the lower house
The big tent parties will shatter. The result will be big tent coalitions. Most countries with PR, you have all parties or all but a few making clear that they will join the right-wing or left-wing coalition (a few centrist parties may say they will choose after the election depending on which offers them the best deal, Lib Dem-style; a few extremist parties may say they won't go into government unless they get a majority) and then you can vote for the coalition you want, but also for the party you want within that coalition to affect the balance within the coalition
Those big tent parties are a risk, as both have been taken over by extremists and they satisfy nobody. The Tories are presently going further and further to the populist right. They also leave little or no choice to the voter, with safe seats being worst. A proper PR voting system would encourage these larger factions to take their chances as separate parties instead of forever being at each others throats in attempting to capture and subdue each other, within one party.
A newly retired friend in the village pub the other day said: "never underestimate the ability of Labour to fuck it up at the last minute"
A few more of these nutty statements amplified by the Tory client media will probably put big doubts on people's willingness to risk big change. Meanwhile the left puts in the boot to Starmer constantly as if he were worse than Sunak et all. Contrast Owen Jones's interviews of New Labour's central figure, top blogger Alistair Campbell and that with extreme social conservative activist and writer Peter Hitchens, who regards the Tories as left wing. Owen is spitting bile at Campbell continually, while his encounter with Hitchens is like a love in.
To Britain's Alice in Wonderland hard left I say, never disparage the good, for want of a nebulous or fleeting stab at the perfect. You might as well stand on the south coast and bark at the sea
I recall a sage on BBC TV in the late 70's make a prediction that I have never forgotten. She said Thatcher would win the 79 election and the country would get progressively more right wing, right into the next century and well beyond. She was certainly right and not even New Labour winning 3 terms reversed the trend. How she managed that is anyone’s guess and it might have been no more than waving a finger in the air than being new Nostradamos?
On Blair’s 3rd term, I had the thought that Labour would surely not leave this behind to go leftward again, but that is exactly what they did, between Brown, the wrong Miliband and Corbyn and it failed. Jeremy couldn’t even win with a unique open goal from May’s inability to campaign in 2017 with their unpopular, uncosted policies on social care and tax cuts on big inheritance.
Deep analysis has been carried out by Yougov, one of the most effective pollsters on the British electorate. By far the biggest group is in the centre, but for various electoral, media and cultural issues that does not all go to the LibDems or SNP in Scotland etc. The next biggest group is the right + centre right and after that is the left + centre left. Of course these groups do shift around and the electoral system does not help, but that is a good reference point. So for the Left + Centre left to win, they need to take most of the centre voters. Yet in the majority of elections the Tories have been given the benefit of the doubt by the majority of centrist voters, even if they are not happy with them. That is all changing as now only 10% of voters under 50 are intending to vote Tory. Their voters are dying out and there is the opportunity of big change.
Great comment, well said.
With a decent voting system, these ghastly extremists would be forming their own parties, rather than trying to take over Labour or the Conservative parties
But …. With PR the forces that keep ‘big tent’ political agglomerations together will be weakened. It’s a risk, but one we can no longer avoid, I think. We MUST have a reformed electoral system for the lower house
The big tent parties will shatter. The result will be big tent coalitions. Most countries with PR, you have all parties or all but a few making clear that they will join the right-wing or left-wing coalition (a few centrist parties may say they will choose after the election depending on which offers them the best deal, Lib Dem-style; a few extremist parties may say they won't go into government unless they get a majority) and then you can vote for the coalition you want, but also for the party you want within that coalition to affect the balance within the coalition
Those big tent parties are a risk, as both have been taken over by extremists and they satisfy nobody. The Tories are presently going further and further to the populist right. They also leave little or no choice to the voter, with safe seats being worst. A proper PR voting system would encourage these larger factions to take their chances as separate parties instead of forever being at each others throats in attempting to capture and subdue each other, within one party.
A newly retired friend in the village pub the other day said: "never underestimate the ability of Labour to fuck it up at the last minute"
A few more of these nutty statements amplified by the Tory client media will probably put big doubts on people's willingness to risk big change. Meanwhile the left puts in the boot to Starmer constantly as if he were worse than Sunak et all. Contrast Owen Jones's interviews of New Labour's central figure, top blogger Alistair Campbell and that with extreme social conservative activist and writer Peter Hitchens, who regards the Tories as left wing. Owen is spitting bile at Campbell continually, while his encounter with Hitchens is like a love in.
To Britain's Alice in Wonderland hard left I say, never disparage the good, for want of a nebulous or fleeting stab at the perfect. You might as well stand on the south coast and bark at the sea