How and when will Nigel Farage return to British politics? And what that will mean for the Conservative Party and Brexit? I should start this off by saying I obviously have no idea what Nigel Farage is actually thinking about doing right now. I have never met the man. I did once find myself in a public toilet at the same time as him, but we traded neither words nor a look in each other’s direction (nor, to clarify for some of you with twisted imaginations, any physical contact whatsoever). In short, I don’t know Nigel Farage, beyond what I’ve seen on television.
Farage is many things, but stupid is not one of those. Unlike 2019, there is no Bxt to "lose". He knows that whether Sunak sneaks in or Starmer storms it, it's on the statute book.
I believe he'll want to teach the Tories a lesson, and if this cements a Starmer landslide, so be it.
His main reason to stand again as he did with the Bxt Party, will be to force the Tories to tack right, to get them to move twds a Full Bxt position in 2024, and primarily a policy to hold an In/Out referendum on ECHR to promise to have full power over small boat migrants landings.
Tbh, that and a position on other culture war icons like trans policy and cancel culture, is all that will be left for Sunak to adopt to differentiate Tories at the GE.
Whatever you think of this, the ability to steer Conservative policy making and his tapping in to Left Behind Britain makes Farage the most successful politician in UK since Thatcher and Blair.
An interesting run through options open to Farage, but while he clearly has the ability to upend politics, I've never got the impression he's really interested in running anything. Johnson clearly always wanted to be Prime Minister. He didn't want to DO the job, but he wanted to BE Prime Minister.
Farage obviously loved the attention and the power of being a disruptor, the ability to steer politics in a right-populist direction. He loved campaigning, being talked up and causing havoc. But while he's intelligent enough to understand the business of doing things, as I say, I've never got the impression he seriously wanted to run a Brexity government. Like Johnson, he's not interested in governing. Unlike Johnson, he's an idealogue. Would he really want to lead a party with a substantial number of MPs in the House of Commons if the party had power and responsibility? Even if only the power and responsibility of being in opposition? I don't think it's comparable to the European Parliament. He could get away with not doing any work there because it was only ever a means of achieving a platform to reach a UK audience.
Your post points towards the US type of polarisation that is getting worse there, almost to the ungovernability of the country. I see this starting in the UK, where the Boris lovers who do not believe he did anything "really" wrong, the avid Brexiters, and the (older mostly) conservatives who have always voted C combine to make an immovable block of votes. Demographics will eventually triumph, but can the system survive until then? Farange is the obvious leader of the bloc, even though he is unfit to lead the country forward. He may be able to lead the retreat towards the nostalgic never neverland that was GB of old, but there is no going back. Increased polarisation will require statesmen, and leaders with principles to break that trend, but unfortunately rabble rousers make more noise than such leaders. To wit, see comments re Starmer, "boring.... uncharismatic... staid...". The US example is there for all to see, and now is the time to move towards prevention, rather than wait and have to find a radical cure.
I once bumped into Margaret Thatcher in the Ladies at Warrington Town Hall and she completely ignored me so don't feel too bad about Farage.
A good resume of all the nightmare situations available but the political gymnastics described aren't giving credibility to the slowly sinking state of the country that voters are getting tired of. The NHS will determine the way the dice falls .
Farage is many things, but stupid is not one of those. Unlike 2019, there is no Bxt to "lose". He knows that whether Sunak sneaks in or Starmer storms it, it's on the statute book.
I believe he'll want to teach the Tories a lesson, and if this cements a Starmer landslide, so be it.
His main reason to stand again as he did with the Bxt Party, will be to force the Tories to tack right, to get them to move twds a Full Bxt position in 2024, and primarily a policy to hold an In/Out referendum on ECHR to promise to have full power over small boat migrants landings.
Tbh, that and a position on other culture war icons like trans policy and cancel culture, is all that will be left for Sunak to adopt to differentiate Tories at the GE.
Whatever you think of this, the ability to steer Conservative policy making and his tapping in to Left Behind Britain makes Farage the most successful politician in UK since Thatcher and Blair.
An interesting run through options open to Farage, but while he clearly has the ability to upend politics, I've never got the impression he's really interested in running anything. Johnson clearly always wanted to be Prime Minister. He didn't want to DO the job, but he wanted to BE Prime Minister.
Farage obviously loved the attention and the power of being a disruptor, the ability to steer politics in a right-populist direction. He loved campaigning, being talked up and causing havoc. But while he's intelligent enough to understand the business of doing things, as I say, I've never got the impression he seriously wanted to run a Brexity government. Like Johnson, he's not interested in governing. Unlike Johnson, he's an idealogue. Would he really want to lead a party with a substantial number of MPs in the House of Commons if the party had power and responsibility? Even if only the power and responsibility of being in opposition? I don't think it's comparable to the European Parliament. He could get away with not doing any work there because it was only ever a means of achieving a platform to reach a UK audience.
Please don't refer to Johnson as "Boris". That just plays into his bollocks "loveable rogue" schtick, Apart from that, good analysis as ever
Your post points towards the US type of polarisation that is getting worse there, almost to the ungovernability of the country. I see this starting in the UK, where the Boris lovers who do not believe he did anything "really" wrong, the avid Brexiters, and the (older mostly) conservatives who have always voted C combine to make an immovable block of votes. Demographics will eventually triumph, but can the system survive until then? Farange is the obvious leader of the bloc, even though he is unfit to lead the country forward. He may be able to lead the retreat towards the nostalgic never neverland that was GB of old, but there is no going back. Increased polarisation will require statesmen, and leaders with principles to break that trend, but unfortunately rabble rousers make more noise than such leaders. To wit, see comments re Starmer, "boring.... uncharismatic... staid...". The US example is there for all to see, and now is the time to move towards prevention, rather than wait and have to find a radical cure.
I’m finding it so bizarre that you put this blog behind a paywall. Assume you did it out of political convictions, for as a job.
I once bumped into Margaret Thatcher in the Ladies at Warrington Town Hall and she completely ignored me so don't feel too bad about Farage.
A good resume of all the nightmare situations available but the political gymnastics described aren't giving credibility to the slowly sinking state of the country that voters are getting tired of. The NHS will determine the way the dice falls .