The top five most Brexity moments of the year Given this is the last entry for 2022, I figured I would have a look back on the whole year and pick out the most Brexity moments and revel in the very worst that Brexit offered up during the last twelve months. Getting this down to only five was difficult as there was a lot of Brexit to choose from.
Great work Nick. Thanks for all your hard work in keeping the Brexit discussion live and grounded firmly in reality. The tide is slowly turning. We’ll never regain what we had but the rate of damage can be slowed and hopefully halted.
When future history and PPE students are asked to write about the Brexit follies (long since reversed), I imagine they will have difficulty in understanding or explaining the power and malign influence of the ERG. Bullying (with the aid of Nick Timothy) Theresa May into the historically disastrous Lancaster House speech - and then installing Johnson and then Truss. Now down to eleven subscribing members - but still apparently steering the Brexit ship.
It is amazing how much damage some nations are willing to do at themselves in order to destroy the begin of democracy that was emerging slowly. It also amazes me how much the public is willing to suffer in order to have its voice smothered. !
The UK, the USA, Hungary, Russia, Poland, Italy, . . . the list has no end.
N. B. The American democracy was never ever conceived as a real democracy in spite of its loudly voiced promotion as such. (proof of this is written in the original [long abolished] constitution)
Have a splendid and fruitful 2023. !
Unfortunately I am afraid that you may find a plethora of subjects in the Brexit realm to write about and make us think about in the year to come.
It's interesting that you should discuss the "Swiss-style relationship" as if it were on offer from the EU. The EU hates the Swiss treaties and is trying to get Switzerland to renegotiate so I doubt that a similar treaty would be offered to the UK.
My impression of the whole thing was that it was probably just a misunderstanding caused by some government source mentioning "Swiss-style", meaning an SPS agreement such as Mr Šefčovič offered the UK in order to ease the number of checks for Northern Ireland. Some ignorant other heard "Swiss-style", understood "Swiss-style" relationship and everyone blew up without thinking further.
There are a couple of things in which Brexiters are very reliable, specifically ignorance and a willingness to make high drama out of nonsense. But it was weird to see the UK once again negotiating with itself about a solution the EU never offered. It's also very funny to see how willing the Brexiters are to tell the world what a fragile flower Brexit is, so easily threatened, so easily damaged.
My recollection from the news over here was that it was discussed as a direction posited by some conservative cabinet members, then very quickly denied as the brexit newspapers got hold of it, and Keir Starmer mentioned it at PMQs one week. I don't recall it ever being talked about as anything more concrete than a vague hope floated or discussed at cabinet level that there could be some way out of our present impasse in relations with the EU. I think it will take a lot more water under the bridge and honesty about our real position, and most likely a new labour government before there's any kind of prospect of a proper reset of our relations. And it will be better if we work out some kind of goal of what we'd like beforehand next time! As you point out, the many separate treaties governing relations between Switzerland and the EU is very complicated, and the EU is not minded to repeat that situation with any other third countries in future.
I think at this point the term "Swiss-style" (agreement with the EU) is being used as a shorthand for so many things that it has become as vague and undefined as Brexit itself.
It is very likely that whoever used it in this context was really just considering a partial alignment such as an SPS agreement which then inevitably got reinterpreted to mean something else.
While the EU does not want a repeat of hundreds of small treaties, I find it likely they would be interested in more alignment as long as it is covered by one legal framework.
Essentially the type of relationship the want Switzerland to move to.
However, as you said in your last paragraph, the situation for that to be even possible does not exist yet.
I've just read an article on JRM by Will Self in the New European. Enjoy is not the right word but it answered a lot of questions about his fraudulent character.,
Another year passing into history with a chunk of brexit fantasy. Even this very day John Redwood is expecting a new industrial revolution to launch the brexit birth.
It must be comforting to believe that something good will eventually fall from the sky over the Uplands to enable another twelve months of the charade to prosper at citizens expense. It could be worse I suppose as inflation and other little nastier challenges could easily surface ... even the dreaded IMF could loom into view?
Still and all, Nick, its another brexit year fading and perhaps a chink of light could sprinkle over a weary populace and inflict further damage on the next new leader of the brexit community, Jacob himself.
A good dose of reality, and not a pleasant one. How does the UK exit this seemingly never-ending nightmare of Brexit now that even Starmer is espoused to it?
I suspect that the answer is say you don't want to end Brexit, then negotiate an EEA / Customs Union deal (and accept freedom of movement) but give it all a new name and deny that it's the same thing, claiming that it's a custom deal especially for Britain.
Once such a deal is created, it will be incredibly hard for a future government to unpick it.
Actually rejoining is going to be hard - look how difficult it has been for Norway to join when it has most of the benefits (and most of the costs) without membership; separating the symbolism from enough of the reality that non-membership stops being an economic disaster will make it much harder to get a referendum vote for membership.
Starmer is just playing a game - which is disappointing - but you need to follow the money. Brexit is slowly being reversed - by removing Johnson, then Truss and, if necessary, Starmer. Economics and demographics are gradually ensuring Brexit goes the same way as the Berlin Wall.
Great work Nick. Thanks for all your hard work in keeping the Brexit discussion live and grounded firmly in reality. The tide is slowly turning. We’ll never regain what we had but the rate of damage can be slowed and hopefully halted.
Just so many disasters to chose from!! Each disaster described eloquently as usual, but profoundly depressing.
When future history and PPE students are asked to write about the Brexit follies (long since reversed), I imagine they will have difficulty in understanding or explaining the power and malign influence of the ERG. Bullying (with the aid of Nick Timothy) Theresa May into the historically disastrous Lancaster House speech - and then installing Johnson and then Truss. Now down to eleven subscribing members - but still apparently steering the Brexit ship.
Hey Nick
It is amazing how much damage some nations are willing to do at themselves in order to destroy the begin of democracy that was emerging slowly. It also amazes me how much the public is willing to suffer in order to have its voice smothered. !
The UK, the USA, Hungary, Russia, Poland, Italy, . . . the list has no end.
N. B. The American democracy was never ever conceived as a real democracy in spite of its loudly voiced promotion as such. (proof of this is written in the original [long abolished] constitution)
Have a splendid and fruitful 2023. !
Unfortunately I am afraid that you may find a plethora of subjects in the Brexit realm to write about and make us think about in the year to come.
Ed
Great post as always.
It's interesting that you should discuss the "Swiss-style relationship" as if it were on offer from the EU. The EU hates the Swiss treaties and is trying to get Switzerland to renegotiate so I doubt that a similar treaty would be offered to the UK.
My impression of the whole thing was that it was probably just a misunderstanding caused by some government source mentioning "Swiss-style", meaning an SPS agreement such as Mr Šefčovič offered the UK in order to ease the number of checks for Northern Ireland. Some ignorant other heard "Swiss-style", understood "Swiss-style" relationship and everyone blew up without thinking further.
There are a couple of things in which Brexiters are very reliable, specifically ignorance and a willingness to make high drama out of nonsense. But it was weird to see the UK once again negotiating with itself about a solution the EU never offered. It's also very funny to see how willing the Brexiters are to tell the world what a fragile flower Brexit is, so easily threatened, so easily damaged.
[Edited typo]
My recollection from the news over here was that it was discussed as a direction posited by some conservative cabinet members, then very quickly denied as the brexit newspapers got hold of it, and Keir Starmer mentioned it at PMQs one week. I don't recall it ever being talked about as anything more concrete than a vague hope floated or discussed at cabinet level that there could be some way out of our present impasse in relations with the EU. I think it will take a lot more water under the bridge and honesty about our real position, and most likely a new labour government before there's any kind of prospect of a proper reset of our relations. And it will be better if we work out some kind of goal of what we'd like beforehand next time! As you point out, the many separate treaties governing relations between Switzerland and the EU is very complicated, and the EU is not minded to repeat that situation with any other third countries in future.
Good theory.
I think at this point the term "Swiss-style" (agreement with the EU) is being used as a shorthand for so many things that it has become as vague and undefined as Brexit itself.
It is very likely that whoever used it in this context was really just considering a partial alignment such as an SPS agreement which then inevitably got reinterpreted to mean something else.
While the EU does not want a repeat of hundreds of small treaties, I find it likely they would be interested in more alignment as long as it is covered by one legal framework.
Essentially the type of relationship the want Switzerland to move to.
However, as you said in your last paragraph, the situation for that to be even possible does not exist yet.
I've just read an article on JRM by Will Self in the New European. Enjoy is not the right word but it answered a lot of questions about his fraudulent character.,
Happy New Year. Keep healthy and keep passionate.
Another year passing into history with a chunk of brexit fantasy. Even this very day John Redwood is expecting a new industrial revolution to launch the brexit birth.
It must be comforting to believe that something good will eventually fall from the sky over the Uplands to enable another twelve months of the charade to prosper at citizens expense. It could be worse I suppose as inflation and other little nastier challenges could easily surface ... even the dreaded IMF could loom into view?
Still and all, Nick, its another brexit year fading and perhaps a chink of light could sprinkle over a weary populace and inflict further damage on the next new leader of the brexit community, Jacob himself.
Here is to 2023 and the end of Vlad also...
A good dose of reality, and not a pleasant one. How does the UK exit this seemingly never-ending nightmare of Brexit now that even Starmer is espoused to it?
I suspect that the answer is say you don't want to end Brexit, then negotiate an EEA / Customs Union deal (and accept freedom of movement) but give it all a new name and deny that it's the same thing, claiming that it's a custom deal especially for Britain.
Once such a deal is created, it will be incredibly hard for a future government to unpick it.
Actually rejoining is going to be hard - look how difficult it has been for Norway to join when it has most of the benefits (and most of the costs) without membership; separating the symbolism from enough of the reality that non-membership stops being an economic disaster will make it much harder to get a referendum vote for membership.
"but give it all a new name and deny that it's the same thing"
Do you really think that the EU will even start to negotiate if it has any suspicion that that is a UK government's aim?
I don't, as the lies by UK politicians about the EEC, then the EU were IMO what led to Brexit which was an expensive exercise for the EU as well.
Starmer is just playing a game - which is disappointing - but you need to follow the money. Brexit is slowly being reversed - by removing Johnson, then Truss and, if necessary, Starmer. Economics and demographics are gradually ensuring Brexit goes the same way as the Berlin Wall.
Hi Nick, what is your email address? It's Brent. Or send me an e-mail at brent@heigoldinvestments.com