Will Russia invade another European country sooner than we think?
One of the great rumours in foreign policy circles across the west at the moment is that Russia might attack a NATO country - Lithuania gets mentioned the most for various reasons - to try and test Trump’s true intentions. If Russia can invade a NATO nation without any retaliation from the US, then NATO is essentially dead as a real world deterrent. Whatever happens in Lithuania - even if the invasion was as much of a disaster as the Ukrainian misadventure has been, where the front lines having reached a WWI style stalemate - Putin will have achieved something massive, simply by dint of having proven that the west will do nothing if NATO members in Eastern Europe are attacked.
I believe this is being underpriced at the moment for several reasons. One is that people point to the essential weakness of Russia, both in military terms because of their huge losses in Ukraine, and economically, with the Russian economy tanking. “Putin can’t afford to create another front in his war,” some of the sensibles will say. Another reason an invasion in the Baltics is being taken too lightly as a possibility is that there is just a sort of “Putin would never do that, it would be mad” type of thinking that spans the political spectrum.
The answer to both of these reservations is that it was clearly mad for Putin to have invaded Ukraine and he also couldn’t afford to do that in 2022, yet he went ahead and did it anyhow. Beyond that, I believe there is a twisted logic that says Putin must invade one of the Baltics relatively soon.
The chaos that defines the start of Trump 2.0 might not last for that long. At least, that’s what Putin and his advisors must be thinking. Trump could run out of steam and resort to golfing, leaving everything to the rest of the executive branch to muddle through with. At that point, US foreign policy would probably resort to something more in line with the American consensus since the end of the war. Or Trump could die. Or Trump could be convinced to take a completely different approach to US-Russia relations, i.e., he could realise he looks weak and foolish doing what he’s doing at the moment. In other words, invading Lithuania in six months’ time might be completely impossible for Putin, but could be something possible right this moment, something that could change the world in a way there is no way back from.
Obviously, I am hoping as hard as possible that Russia does not invade another European country. But I find myself increasingly feeling like it might be inevitable. The weakness that Trump is displaying as US president is very possibly a once in a century opportunity for the axis of evil - Russia/China/Iran - to completely upend the existing world order in a way that will make it impossible to repair. I’m hoping they fumble that chance. I worry the west will not be so lucky.
I discuss some of this with Drew Pavlou, Australian writer and activist, in the YouTube link above. Please give it a watch - and like and subscribe to the channel if you haven’t already.
Russia has the cat out of the bag now. Putin knows that him and his present regime can never be at peace or work constructively with trust with western countries ever again. Around 30 local cease fires have ended with Russians breaking the peace, proving they are not in the least bit trustworthy. The latest vile trick was to destroy some civilian buildings and infrastructure with missiles, then to wait until fire fighters arrive and to kill many of them again. All to run down morale and emergency services. They are totally sick, the nearest to pure evil in modern times.
The main aim is to take control with standing armies of the 13 gaps through which invading armies can pass to invade Russia, as it is a difficult to defend territory and they have been invaded 50 odd times, including by smaller powers such as Sweden. All of the gaps were held when the Soviet Union was around up to about 1990. This does not mean I see justification in this logic. Putin could have worked with the west and the defensive only NATO and there would have been no invasion forseeable outside of the imaginations of extreme Russian Nationalists.
There is no course that makes any sense other than for Europe to arm itself to the teeth and to counter the Russians on all fronts including in the cyber realm. For Europe to have an effective army post Trump, it needs to be co-ordinated as one, working together. That means in practice, taking the small military organisation within the EU and expanding it to include the UK, EEA & Efta countries as well as the ones not yet quite inside that orbit, mostly in the Balkans. It is needed because integrated armies are thought to be about three times as effective as the same resources would be when split. If split 27 or more times, I would say the gains for combining against the Russians would be far more than 3-1.
All of Putin's Bots and postings, plus diplomacy and propaganda were with the main aim of splitting the UK from the EU and Europe, splitting Europe up generally, opposing the EU and NATO, while trying to split USA from Europe. He has been a lot more effective at this than his corrupt, hollowed out, archaic and unprofessional army and navy. Nonetheless, they will be rebuilding and coming back to try again....and again. The Peace Dividend is over. Tax and spend will need to be pinched accordingly and borrowing increased. The alternative is way worse.
I agree that there is a much greater risk of Putin attacking another European country now than most think, although I still don't think it's very likely in the short term. An invasion similar to his one of Ukraine in 2022 would take some time to prepare and build up the forces necessary and a 'deniable' / 'little green men' scenario would probably be responded to much more seriously now that it's clear what that sort of thing leads to. But it is possible. And while it's possible that today's opportunities might not exist in 6 months, I'd guess that they will do for a bit longer than that.
Trump gives every sign of wanting to give Putin via 'negotiations' what he's been unable to take by force, so it would make sense to see if that works out rather than potentially jeopardise his best chance since 2022 by attacking the Baltics.
Finally, I think it's worth making one other point re: "it was clearly mad for Putin to have invaded Ukraine and he also couldn’t afford to do that in 2022, yet he went ahead and did it anyhow."
I think that's quite a dangerous line of thought. Putin had already got away with so much that it was reasonable to think that the West wouldn't oppose him in 2022. In fact, I'd argue that he was essentially correct about that. The West didn't oppose his invasion and would likely have acquiesced in his occupation of Ukraine. What Putin got wrong was not the West's weakness and cowardice, but Ukraine's strength and bravery. Which has over time stiffened Western backbone and confidence. (Although still not enough to persuade Biden that Ukraine should be supported to victory.) While there are some encouraging signs, Europe hasn't yet actually delivered an appropriate military-industrial response. It's still in the 'talking about it' phase. Putin would be foolish to bet on Europe continuing to convince itself it doesn't need to act, but he might yet be right that European leaders won't do what's necessary.