Will Nigel Farage be the next prime minister? And if so, would that counter-intuitively fast-forward Britain re-joining the EU?

Above is my discussion with Gawain Towler, a man who was head of press or something basically similar for Nigel Farage over the course of about 20 years. He is perhaps the best source of knowledge on the movement built around Farage over the last few decades of Farage’s ascent, taking in UKIP, the Brexit Party, and now, Reform. He is one of the true authorities on the topic. We go over a lot of things in the video. We touch on, dare I say it, Brexit, at one point. But mostly, I wanted Gawain to tell me about Reform from the inside.

Now, I can imagine that there are some of you, particularly the ones who subscribed during my “This Week in Brexitland” period, who will feel I should have gone “harder” on Gawain. Like, I should have punched him for answers about how Brexit has gone badly and further, add some sort of moral element to that. I did not do that - and have zero regrets on that front - for two reasons. One is that what I want to do with my YouTube channel is have people on from a huge range of political backgrounds, and I really, really don’t want to pick them up on every little thing. I want them to tell me how they see the world, unfiltered. Moreover, I’d prefer if we had a cordial conversion about things we agree upon. If someone came on and said something that I found either obviously factual incorrect or morally abhorrent, I would step in. That didn’t happen with Gawain here - although we do tussle a few times on a few topics as things proceed, so do watch to the end (I get into Brexit matters late on).

I get that most of you reading this hate Brexit. So do I. In fact, I remain of the opinion that it was one of the worst decisions - if not the VERY WORST - that this country has ever made. But we have tried shouting. We have tried having pensioners stand in Paliament Square with EU flags while John Lennon’s “Power to the People” plays on a loudspeaker. As a result, we are not only no closer to rejoining the EU, we are further away than ever, with every political party accepting Brexit as as done deal now. Let's put it this way: I can easily imagine someone who is passionately anti-Brexit voting for Reform. Why? Because every party is pro-Brexit anyhow, so why not put that to one side and think about who will shake things up the most? This is how Farage becomes prime minister, by the way. This exactly, in fact: an electorate who is essentially anti-Brexit, but who votes for Farage as PM anyhow because the anti-Brexit side of politics has not distinguished or even asserted itself, to put it as politely as possible. There is no real anti-Brexit party with any chance of power to choose from.

Will Farage becoming prime minister? I doubt it. The mountain he has to climb is too great and there is probably a ceiling to his support. However, two things to say immediately: one, I certainly wouldn’t rule it out by any means. There are several paths open to Farage becoming PM, and none of them are that outrageous or unlikely. It’s a real possibility. Two, I think Farage becoming at least the next leader of the opposition is very likely at this stage. In fact, I’d be amazed if Farage wasn’t opposition leader or PM after the next general election.

The biggest reason for this is the state of the Conservative party. It’s incredibly bad and getting worse by the day. A classic thing I hear from Tory friends at the moment goes something like this: “Kemi is awful. A total car crash. But what can we do, we’re stuck with her for now”. The sense of inertia from Tories now is unbelievable. They are watching disaster unfold around them, with Starmer learning how to be a decent prime minister, grabbing more and more of the sensible territory, while Farage continues to cannibalise their right flank. CCHQ is laying off people right, left and centre, while associations around the country are falling apart, as the money drains from the entire Tory machine at all levels. Yet they serenely continue, shrugging their shoulders as if there is nothing that can be done. They have become the dog with the cup of coffee and fire all around it going, “This is fine” meme.

Whenever the Tories get a mention in the national press these days, it’s to ask, “Who will replace Kemi Badenoch?” Even the most Tory-friendly broadcasters and journalists are no longer pretending she has any chance of ever being prime minister. The path ahead for the Conservative party is becoming increasingly clear: infighting and failed attempts to get rid of Badenoch for the next few years, with the now familiar tropes re-emerging: the letters to the chair of the 1922 committee, votes of no confidence, endless briefings to the right-wing press about how Badenoch is finished and will be gone any day now. That will go on interminably for years, all while Tory poll numbers tank even further. Then, in early 2028, they will completely panic and then get rid of her, way, way, way too late. There will be hype around Jenrick - who will unquestionably become leader at this stage - being able to turn their fortunes around, only to find Tory poll numbers remaining stubbornly in the teens, with Reform at least ten points ahead in every one of them.

Sure, Reform might implode before then - but that’s what it will take to help the Tories even remain the official opposition. They are completely reliant on Farage screwing up because they seem incapable of figuring out how to save themselves. Which is all the more strange given there is a huge, Tory-sized hole in British politics that, for whatever reason, they are doggedly determined not to fill.

So, who is most likely to be prime minister after the next general election? The answer remains Keir Starmer.