Why I think Burnham will fail
Adjacent to what I’m about to write about, above is a video I made about why I think Reform and the Greens will be one and two in the polls by the end of 2026. The video focuses on all aspects of British politics that I think gets us to that point by Christmas; this article will strictly address why I don’t think Burnham as prime minister will work out in the way his supporters believe it will.
I have been very down on the prospects of Burnham’s premiership being any good, on here and on social media more generally. People have asked why I feel that way and further, have asked for substantial evidence of why I feel that way. I will attempt to do my best here to back up why I have this feeling about Burnham.
Pretty much everything Burnham has said or done since he became the heir apparent, shortly after winning the Makerfield by-election, has given me a bad feeling about him. Here are what I think are the highlights:
Putting out that statement on Gaza, essentially apologising for Starmer’s position on the war, was a real own goal. It resulted in what anyone with a pulse could have predicted: it annoyed the left, who felt it did not go far enough, while upsetting everyone else who felt he was inching back into Corbyn territory on foreign affairs. Again, he was under no pressure to say anything about it at all.
Holding his first big interview since it being confirmed he would be our next prime minister with Gary Lineker. Look, I like Lineker, even though I disagree with him on Israel-Palestine and feel like he went overboard on the issue, but there is no way Burnham should have done that. He should have either avoided any media at all pre-appointment, or talked to a serious political journalist, like Andrew Neil or at least Cathy Newman. Doing the interview with Lineker made Burham feel lightweight, which is a real issue for him as I think that feeling of him being a lightweight is probably his Achilles heel.
The general briefing that seems to be going on behind the scenes is bad, revealing both how tenuous Burnham’s grasp on the party really is, as well as how his indecisiveness is hurting him even before his premiership truly begins. Allowing the speculation on who is getting which job in the cabinet has been chaotic.
Hiring an ex-Hope Not Hate director as his strategy chief! This gives you such insight into where Burnham is going to go wrong. He’s a creature of the Labour machine and struggles to see beyond it. This appointment is the essence of that.
I could go on and on because, as I said, everything Burnham has done since the Makerfield by-election, and I do mean absolutely everything, has been a poor move. In a sense, Burnham is Starmer with better presentational skills. And not even that much better presentational skills at that.
But weirdly, I don’t think this goes far enough in talking about Burnham’s faults. For I think Starmer was in many ways a much better politician than Burnham has ever shown himself to be. After the Hartlepool by-election, Starmer was impressive in reshuffling his cabinet to make the party more electable. He was ruthless in kicking Corbyn out of the party, knowing he needed a big thing to demonstrate to the country that Labour had really changed (this is something Kemi Badenoch has not yet realised she needs to do and no, removing the whip from Gavin Barwell is not going to cut it).
I don’t see evidence that Burnham has the ability to do anything like those two things. In fact, he seems likely to try and pander to every wing of the Labour party, getting constantly stuck in dead ends as a result. That’s what he’s showing us now. Okay, maybe he gets better, settles into the job a bit. But he has no time to get things wrong whatseover. The Autumn Budget will be upon him faster than he thinks and that has every possibility of derailing his government, mere weeks into its existence.
Look, for the sake of the country, I hope I’m wrong about this. I hope Bunrham is transformational as a prime minister, because God knows, that’s what we desperately need right now. I just don’t see any evidence that is going to happen - in fact, all the proof we have points the other way.
Well, as per your last paragraph, let us hope he does well. The country needs sensible leadership right now.
Very interesting. I'm probably more in a 'keep fingers crossed and wait and see' camp than a 'I'm certain he'll fail' one. But I'm definitely not expecting him to succeed. Just hoping he is a "transformational as a prime minister, because God knows, that’s what we desperately need right now".
I agree with you on point 3. I hadn't been following closely enough to be aware of point 4, and don't feel I know enough about that to comment.
I understand your argument re: point 2, but think it could go either way. If Burnham isn't able to get a grip and make decisive decisions then your thesis will have been confirmed. If Burnham is able to set a new standard for public communication and create a sense that the PM is now listing and talking to the country rather than the Westminster bubble, then the interview will be seen as the first steps towards making that happen. (I wasn't aware of the interview, so this is just my gut reaction to your reporting.)
I think on balance you're wrong about point 1. Like it or not, the whole Israel/Palestine issue is important to a significant chunk of the electorate and is emblematic to many of those people of what was wrong with Starmer. Labour have been haemorrhaging votes to the Greens especially on this, but also to Independents and perhaps in a few places to the Lib Dems. While his video may not have won over the most strident / extreme / partisan voices online, it says to a lot of the people Burnham will need to win back that he's different on an issue that does matter to them.
And while Starmer may have just been trying to say to Israel, traumatised after the Hamas pogrom that "we've got your back", stating that it was fine for Israel to collectively punish Palestinian civilians was just wrong. He could have tried to say that civilians were bound to be caught up and emphasised that Israel had a duty to be careful in exercising its right to self-defense... Perhaps that what he meant. But it's not what he said.
Burnham does need to try to win back a lot of those voters. He doesn't need to try to 'out-populist' his rivals, but he does need to try to win many of these voters back. I think the video gives him a chance of doing so.
We'll see!