Why doesn't Starmer campaign to rejoin the EU? Here are three reasons why he should

The video above is an extrapolation on the issue of why I think Starmer rediscovering his pro-European roots would be strategically sensible, with some ranting and fun stuff along the way. What I am focusing on in the article below is why, in as methodical a way as I can manage, I believe Starmer’s best bet for 2029 is saying that if he gets another majority, he will seek to hold a referendum on rejoining the EU, with the Labour Party campaigning explicitly to rejoin.

I should start by saying I think the chances of this happening are slim. Mostly because I think the Labour Party is terrified that becoming a rejoin party would mean they would lose a whole bunch of seats they might otherwise win. I disagree - I think there is virtually no way they will win the seats in question. They are gone. It’s like what happened to the Tories last time round - ironically enough, with the exact same constituencies. The Conservatives were trying to hang onto Hartlepool when they should have been trying to hang onto Henley (and yes, I know, smartarses, it’s now Henley and Thame with the new boundaries, but that isn’t as poetic).

This will be Labour’s conundrum at the next election: thinking they need to cling to Burnley, when they should concentrate on hanging onto Battersea. Like the Tories last time, I can see Labour not realising that their voter coalition is shifting rapidly and they need to travel to where their actual voters are. Which leads me to this:

1. The biggest reason Starmer should come out to rejoin the EU is that this is what most of his voters want. We’ve known this for a while now. Most Labour voters, even in red wall seats that everyone thinks are Brexity as hell, are pro-Europeans. It goes with the brand. Maybe in 2024, not talking about the EU helped Labour but it almost certainly won’t next time. Starmer wants to differentiate himself from Farage. He won’t do it by trying to be Farage, he will do it by being different from the Reform leader. What better way to do it than this?

2. Being pro-rejoin will protect Starmer from losing votes to his left. Labour should worry about the combination of the Greens and Corbyn, not to mention the Lib Dems, poaching his electorate. The fact that being pro-rejoin is left-wing assigned is incredibly silly, but that doesn’t stop it from being psephologically true. A lot of young left-wingers want to rejoin the EU. This is something he can offer that no one else can in the same way. As sitting prime minister, it just carries more weight, seems more serious. Do you want to waste your vote on the Greens and let Farage in when Starmer is going to get your freedom of movement back? A lot of 18 year olds in key constituencies would find themselves asking this question - if Starmer is offering re-join to them, that is.

3. It gives Starmer something to blame his lack of progress on. Keir can say “I tried to fix the problems but it’s impossible without being in the EU again.” Lots of people will hate that explanation. Many others will hate it and think it’s complete bullshit. But most of the people who would actually vote Labour in 2029 will see something in it. For a certain contingent, blaming Brexit for all of our problems will fly. Of course, it means he has to try fixing stuff in the next parliament if he wins, but he can think about that when he gets there. At least he’s bought himself two election victories, which puts him in the pantheon of great Labour leaders automatically.

I’m not saying he should call a referendum now. That would be foolish. But telling the country in 2028 that if Labour wins the next election, we will seek to rejoin the EU may turn out to be the only way Labour has any chance whatsoever of winning. In politics, you have to figure out who would vote for you and why. Starmer and his team should start thinking about that pretty soon.