Why 2024 won’t be like 1992
I was challenged by a long-time reader to explain why I think the Tories will lose the next general election and specifically, why the 2024/25 general election will not be like the 1992 general election.
For background, the Conservative party won the 1992 general election against the odds. The received wisdom leading up to the election was that Labour were either going to win a small majority or be the largest party in a hung parliament. It was widely felt that winning the election would be difficult for the Tories - and yet, they ended up getting 7.6% more of the popular vote than Labour and 336 seats, 40 less than they got in 1987 but enough for a 20 seat majority.
This has been the basis for a lot of “There are more quiet Tories than you think” commentary ever since. Even now, with the Truss fiasco and Labour averaging 25 point leads in the polls, there is this difficult to shake assumption that the Conservative party will close the gap, simply by this silent rump of Tory voters turning out on the day.
I don’t think this will happen. In fact, I think there is every chance that 2024/25 will be worse for the Tories than 1997, and possible even a lot worse. I’ll go through the major reasons why I think that is.
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