This week in Brexitland, September 23rd, 2022

1. Brexit and the UK’s relationship with the United States of America

There is a massive paradox in the middle of Liz Truss’ foreign policy agenda. On one hand, she wants the west to unite in order to do whatever it can to stop the Russian invasion of Ukraine; for a united west to stand tall and help the Ukrainians win a war they must win, for them and for us too. It seems clear that Truss, whatever her other faults, understands the importance of the war in Ukraine and is fully on the right side of history.

However, this is contradicted by the fights she is choosing to pick over aspects of Brexit, most notably around the Northern Ireland Protocol. She and her fellow travellers in government feel they were tricked or something (this part isn’t clear) into signing a Withdrawal Agreement which places economic barriers between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, and so now they want the agreement changed or at least for the interpretation of it to be altered so that it favours the UK in some sense (again, what they are specifically after here is not clear). Unfortunately for the UK government, the EU and the US disagree sharply with their version of events and would like the Withdrawal Agreement adhered to as signed. You might have noticed then that this pits the UK against the EU and the US, i.e. most of the western world.

This makes calls for unity seem, well, “problematic” to use a word I hate but seems deliciously ironic to place here given this government’s culture war obsessions. You can’t ask the western world to come together as one while at the same time picking fights with large portions of that coalition about international agreements you signed only a few years ago. It just isn’t going to work.

All of this makes me think about the UK’s relationship with the US overall since Brexit. And I can’t help but conclude that Brexit has made our relationship with America worse than it was before. Actually, probably much worse. Which is logical in one sense - they didn’t want it to happen, neither Democrats nor Republicans, mainly for reasons of western unity - but it also cuts against everything the Brexiters said before the referendum about what leaving the EU would mean. Although they are keen to deny it now, there was a lot of talk about a UK-US free trade deal and even a whole idea around turning the Five Eyes - US, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, UK - into a massive trading bloc, covering the “Anglosphere” the Brexiters love so much.

Instead, we just seem to constantly be pissing the US government off. Brexiters like to lay this at the feet of Biden, saying that it’s all down to his Irish roots and what that makes him think about Great Britain as a result. They kid themselves that if the Republicans win in 2024 - and particularly if Trump is the victorious candidate - then a UK-US free trade deal will be back on the cards. This ignores the fact that they came nowhere near to getting a deal when Trump was president. It’s not like it was coming down to the wire and Biden put the whole thing on hold; Trump blew some hot air about a deal but nothing at all ever came of it in any practical sense.

Also, it’s difficult to see any other Republican bending over backwards to sort out a trade deal with the UK, or at least, any deal that the UK could possibly live with. I think this government probably would sign up to something pretty awful just to have the trophy of a UK-US deal to brag about, but there is a limit even for them. Signing up to something that turns Britain into a dumping ground for US corporate interests would be very unlikely to go unnoticed by British voters.

And finally, it’s unlikely this lot will still be in power by the time any Republican candidate gets sworn into office. January 20th, 2025 is the day such a president would take power; January 9th, 2025 is the latest possible date of the next general election. I don’t think Truss will be in Number 10 to witness a new president being sworn in, whatever happens to Biden.

Which brings me to hoping Labour win the next election, something I wish for many reasons, but one of the most unexpected being so we can start to improve relations with both the United States and the European Union, two of the UK’s closest allies. That anyone is pining their hopes on a Labour government to do this speaks volumes to where the Conservative party have gone over the last five years.

2. Brexit and electoral reform

One of places that a lot of the energy that went into campaigning for a second Brexit referendum ended up after we left the EU was in campaigning for electoral reform. The push for PR has spun into overdrive over the last couple of years on the left. And the campaign seems to be yielding dividends: support for proportional representation has grown, according to recent polling.

I generally like to employ a sceptical tone when talking about introducing PR to Westminster, both in terms of the likelihood of it happening and the effect that would be caused if it did. The support from the public for proportional representation is impressive but one only need look back to the AV referendum to see what arguments would be pushed against changing the voting system. And AV wasn’t even PR, just a glossy version of First Past the Post; I have imagined on more than one occasion the way both the pro and anti-PR campaigns would try and explain the Single Transferable Vote and have shuddered every time.

However, I will say this: I think it would be beautifully ironic if the deepest change we end up with out of leaving the European Union is a more continental way of doing politics. If Brexit really does inspire the country to take up PR, then it will be a good lesson to Brexiters that you should be careful what you wish for, just in case you actually get it.

Thank you very much for reading. If you haven’t subscribed yet, please do and I’ll be back next week with the worst of Brexit.