This week in Brexitland, June 24, 2022
What the two by-election results mean for Brexit
In a double whammy for Boris Johnson and his party, yesterday saw them lose two by-elections in different parts of the country to two separate political parties. It would have been difficult to engineer a worse result for the Tories - a loss to Labour in a red wall constituency that demonstrates how vulnerable they are to losing a score of seats won in 2019, with Corbyn and Brexit no longer (as) relevant, as well as a crushing defeat against the Lib Dems in a formerly safe seat in southwest England, informing the Conservatives that ignoring their traditional base at the expense of a red wall that’s turning against them anyhow means they are in danger of leaking seats in several different directions at the next general election.
So far, the only fall out is that Oliver Dowden has resigned and Johnson has said he’s going nowhere. The latter was wholly predictable - it’s been clear for some time that there is nothing that would ever shame Boris Johnson into quitting Number 10. The former is a surprise - Dowden was particularly wedded to passionately defending the prime minister at every turn up until today - but won’t have that much of an effect. This government will continue to sink into the mire, convinced that everyone will suddenly change their minds come a general election and rediscover their love of that messy haired, Etonian rascal.
Some are spinning this as a revolt against Brexit - this is an error. It would be nice to think this, but it is false comfort. However, there are positives for Remainers in the two results. One is that it is a further nail in the coffin of this government, and when it falls, the conversation on Europe can move onto the next stage, which is the one that goes: we’re stuck with Brexit for now but let’s work to negotiate the worst parts of it away, or at least ameliorate the most negative aspects of the Brexit we ended up with. The sooner this happens, the better.
Secondly, it shows that Brexit isn’t going help the Tories win the next general election. If they’re thinking of running an election campaign based around “we got Brexit done and Labour want to undo it,” they might want to look at these by-election results and think again. People are in no mood to revisit the Brexit question yet - but nor are they in the mood for more discussion about it at all, particularly coming from a party that promised at the last election to get it “done”. People in very Leave parts of the West Country are willing to vote for the “Bollocks to Brexit” bunch because there are much more salient issues to consider; in Leave voting Wakefield (almost 2-1 for Leave in 2016), people have moved on and are not going to vote Tory again just because of Brexit. That’s what they voted for in 2019, at least partially, and they don’t want to hear about it again from anyone, particularly from the Tories who said they would lay the issue to rest.
In summary, the two by-elections are good news for Remainers - but not because it means we can start the re-join campaign tomorrow. They simply signal that we are in the death throes of the “Let’s do something stupid just to own the Eurocrats” phase of Brexit, which is actually a good thing for everyone in the country, not just those who voted Remain in 2016.
2. James Cleverly demonstrates how Brexit has destroyed the Conservative Party
Our current Minister for Europe, the Right Honourable James Cleverly, was asked at a House of Lords committee meeting this week why exactly Northern Ireland is doing better economically than pretty much anywhere else in the United Kingdom right now. Wasn’t this proof that one, the NI Protocol is working for Northern Ireland and two, evidence that NI remaining in the single market for goods is also a positive for the region, demonstrating along the way the negatives of Brexit? Cleverly had this to say:
"Some of the elements we know to be true is that the public sector in Northern Ireland is proportionally larger than in many other parts of the UK. That is perhaps more resilient to the economic shocks we're seeing globally and across the UK. I can't in all good conscience look you in the eye and say that is definitely the reason but I think it could be a contributory factor".
This is so far away from anything the Tories are supposed to be, the ideals they are meant to represent, that Cleverly should have resigned his post then and there and told the committee he was crossing the aisle to become a Labour MP at his nearest convenience. I’m amazed, genuinely astonished, that in an age where Tory strategists can publicly talk about how we need “more real Tories” - which in and of itself is deeply moronic as a strategy - that a sitting Conservative minister could say in a parliamentary committee meeting that the reason Northern Ireland is doing better than the rest of the UK might be down to it having a larger public sector. In other words, saying that he believes having a larger public sector is an economic good, a benefit. Or at the very least, having a larger public sector is something that helps countries weather global economic storms better in a measurable sense.
Why did Cleverly do this? Because the representatives of this government will do anything these days, sacrifice any principle that even a couple of years ago would have been sacrosanct amongst them, anything to avoid having to blame Brexit for anything whatsoever. The result of this has been the hollowing out of the Conservative party into a paper-thin veneer of nothingness, clinging to Brexit like a life raft that’s slowly sinking, none of them able to admit it, even to themselves.
I would have loved to have asked the minister if, given he feels that Northern Ireland is possibly benefitting from having a larger public sector, does that now mean this government is planning to expand the public sector in England, Scotland and Wales, particularly England given it has full control over such a venture? Would have loved to have heard the answer to that question.
3. The airlines say the airport chaos is down to Brexit - the government responds with “F**k business”
Michael O’Leary, the CEO of Ryanair, has pulled no punches this week in assigning blame for this summer’s airport chaos to Brexit. In a memorable spot for Sky News, he said:
“It’s completely to do with Brexit. A lot of these pinch points would be solved very quickly if we could bring in European workers……We are hide-bound and hamstrung by a government so desperate to show Brexit has been a success, when it’s been an abject failure. It won’t allow us to bring in EU workers to do these jobs.”
Blaming Brexit is a risky thing for a business to do in the current climate. Particularly given a reasonable chunk of Ryanair’s clientele will be Brits looking for low-budget holidays, and I’m guessing here but more than a fair few of them will have voted Leave. And he’s not the only airline boss to come forward with similar critiques of Brexit lately. There is no way these people would be blaming Brexit for the current problems unless they were very certain this was the case.
But that’s not really the most interesting thing about this story. What is more fascinating is the government’s reaction to the airline bosses complaining about Brexit. In a showdown between being pro-business and being pro-Brexit, wherever those two are in conflict - and that happens a hell of a lot these days - the UK government comes down on the side of being pro-Brexit, every time. Which pits them against the business community a lot, something you’d think would worry the Conservative party, but from what I’m seeing, apparently not. I guess there are 10 million UKIP voters out there to make up for it all, right?
So then, what has any member of this government actually said in response to the airline CEO’s blaming disruption on Brexit? Well, Grant Shapps’ move a couple of weeks, when the chaos was first starting to unfurl was to…….blame the airlines themselves.
“It’s been very distressing to see passengers facing yet more disruption at airports, having well-earned holidays cancelled and plans left in disarray. We’ve been clear that industry leaders need to tackle the issues we saw at Easter head-on. Although some steps have been taken, we are still not seeing the progress we need to.”
Yes, the “F**k business” phase of the Tory story is still going strong from the looks of things. All right, I’m being slightly unfair, that was a few weeks ago, what’s Shapps said more recently on this? In response to the Ryanair stuff, I mean?
“We want a high-wage high-skill economy. That means the aviation sector like all other sectors - as the HGV lorry driver sector has now done – must train people domestically. Airports across Europe have also had the same queues, so if it was just a Brexit issue, then that wouldn’t be the case. As with lorry drivers, we found the solutions were actually in making sure decent salaries were paid, that people was trained here in this country, that people were attracted to a job not just by better salaries but also better conditions as well.”
F**k business, basically.
Do the Tories really think Labour are that incapable of wooing the business community? Seriously? They liked Blair for a long time and it was sort of a big impediment to the Tories getting back into power for a lengthy stretch. Does the Conservative party not care about business any longer then?
Of course it does. Just so long it doesn’t get in the way of Brexit orthodoxy. Given this happens a lot, as I already mentioned, this means “F**k business” is fast becoming Tory orthodoxy itself.
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I’ll be back next week with the worst of Brexit.
It is funny how the Conservative Party can change leaders at the drop of a hat, the electorate is allowed to change Governments every 5 years or less, yet Brexiteers feel that the referendum result of 6 years ago is cast in stone. The country has now had longer than the term of a government to determine whether Brexit has worked or not. Surely we have right to decide whether we wish to continue outside the EU or not? I would propose that, on the 10th anniversary of the Brexit decision, we can once again decide whether to apply for membership or not. I'm not a Remainer, I'm a Rejoiner.
Michael O'Leary is right that Brexit prevents them employing EU workers easily but are there fully trained security staff in the EU available to work here? The real problem was the ending of furlough while the aviation industry was at a low ebb. Airlines and airports had no option but to make surplus staff redundant. Replacing them has proved difficult. As for the airport delays and flight cancellations, a lot of this is due to airlines making flights available for holiday companies that overstretched airport capacity. Effectively selling flights that couldn't be flown. The desire for more revenue overriding the hard logistic limits. It was avoidable if airlines hadn't been so hopelessly optimistic that "something would turn up" to make things work.
I'm a remainer and deplore the government but the airlines must take some of the blame and I don't think it's realistic to blame Brexit in this case.
Cleverly's comments about the Northern Ireland economy and public spending were hilarious. Apart from ignoring the fact of free trade with the EU flourishing there it's an admission that the Tory obsession with cutting public spending actually damages the economy. Public spending is good for the economy. F*ck business indeed.