This week in Brexitland, January 4, 2024
Here are three big reasons why Sunak calling a general election as soon as possible is in his direct interests
All the talk in Westminster at the moment is around when Rishi Sunak should call a general election and further to that, when he should announce what he intends to do in this regard. I agree with the idea that he should make it clear as soon as possible whether or not he intends to call it in the spring or the autumn. He’s at a point where dithering on this is going to cost him, and he’s not in any sort of poll position to be able to afford that.
Having thought about it over the last few days, I’ve come to an even more extreme conclusion: Sunak should call the general election right now. Today. Just do it. There are three big reasons why it is in Sunak’s best interests to call a general election as soon as possible:
It gives Labour the least amount of time to prepare
Starmer and company are pretty much ready for the election now anyhow, but taking any extra time away from them would be advantageous to the Conservative party. Put it the reverse way: the more time from here Labour have to prepare, the better it will be for them. They would have more time to raise money for instance, and coming off a period in which the Tories out-fundraised Labour significantly, this just adds to the argument that going now is Sunak’s best move. All he’s doing by waiting is giving Labour more breathing space. He should take that away from them if he wants to give himself a chance.
It gives Farage less time to prepare and figure out what he wants to do
As of the time of writing, Farage has only hinted at what he intends to do during the general election campaign. Does he want to be front and centre for the Reform Party, or does he want to hang back and be a commentator? There is a sense that Farage genuinely hasn’t made his mind up yet. Of course, it’s entirely possible that he knows exactly what he’s going to do come the election and he’s laying low for now, but it is also entirely plausible that he’s still in two minds. If Sunak called the election now, he would force Farage to make a decision and the prime minister may get lucky and find that putting Farage on the spot makes him stand down.
And make no mistake about it: Farage throwing himself into the campaign would have a negative effect on the Tories and cost them seats. So, it isn’t a minor consideration. Plus, even if Farage does lead Reform from the front, going now gives Farage less time to consider his plan of attack and get prepared for it.
The electorate will thank Sunak for it, at least as much as they are ever going to
The public are sick of this parliament. They want a general election. Going now probably buys Sunak as much good will as he is ever going to get from the electorate. Calling an election now would come across as a gutsy, decisive move, particularly given how far behind in the polls the Tories are. On the flip side, the public will punish the Tories for waiting until nearly the last minute to hold the election; it will look as if they are hiding from an electoral spanking, which makes sense because that’s exactly what they would be doing by having the election later this year.
Going now would also cut off any “Sunak the bottler” type comments from Labour. He will have thrown down the gauntlet and challenged Starmer at a time of perceived weakness. It might unbalance both Labour and Farage enough to narrow the polls over the course of the election campaign and at least make things interesting.
I still think the Tories would lose if Sunak called the election now, but far less badly than if they wait until the spring or worse still, the autumn. Sunak has to accept that there is no magical thing he is going to announce that will turn the polls around in any significant manner. He is where he is. He is probably, in fact almost certainly, going to lose the next election. Ironically enough, by embracing that fact, he might finally be able to give himself at least a tiny shot at winning.
Thanks for reading and please subscribe if you haven’t already. I’ll be back next week with the worst of Brexit.
Some perceptive points there, but I don't believe Sunak will call a General Election now because:
Sunak's family will gain big if he manages to pull off a UK-India Trade Deal, even one that capitulates to them as badly or worse, as the Australia deal did and it will provide food for the right wing press to laud the Tories for 15 minutes, avoiding awkward details. What India wants most, is visa free access for their business, workers, students etc, which is what the Tories most fear to offer.
If Sunak goes to Jan '25 ( 5 years + 1 month of Tory office ) he will have 3 years as PM on his CV.
The Macawber factor. Something might turn up to boost Sunak and the Tories or to hammer Labour and the LibDems, if they wait it out longer.
The provable blame factor. If Sunak goes early and many Tory careers and their time in office are all lost he will be left open to criticism that if he had gone later, it could or would have been better for them than chancing to run against a 20 odd percent Labour lead now.
Sunak is said to be having a terrible time in the top job, but the fascination of power will probably be holding him in it's grip like a rabbit frozen in the headlines because it virtually always does. He will not be able to let go of the private planes, limos and helicopters and of mattering, unless pushed, ala De Pfeffel & Truss. The Tories do not have an alternative.
If Sunak waits at least until Spring or Summer, the public mood will be lifted by the weather and light levels and an optimistic public mood will help the government at least a little. This is why Governments tend to like calling them in May.
May onwards would allow time for the National Insurance cut to feed into slightly higher take home pay, added to which there has reportedly been record pay increases in the private sector compared to the past 15 years which might boost the feel acceptable factor.
Cyclical pressures on the NHS tend to reduce in the warmer months compared to to Jan/Feb, so long as other pressures do not overwhelm this factor, as they might. But Sunak claims to be putting more resources in?
Most of all there is the chicken factor to stop them calling an election any sooner than needed. Tories stand to lose power with all the benefits, prestige and trappings, as well as many of their jobs as ministers and MP's, the spin off private earnings received because of their positions and an even more terrifying factor for some. The corruption and prosecutable bad behaviour will become subject to examination, investigation and many court cases by ex DPP Keir Starmer and his allies. Some from the Tories and Leave campaign could go to prison or be fined and discredited. The longer they leave it, the more they can cover their tracks and allow critical time to expire.
My guess is between October and mid December, just avoiding Christmas week.
What happens if migrant crossings rise with better weather? A risk for Sunak there. As for prosecutions, I think you are underestimating the strength of the Westminster Club. Starmer will likely want to draw a line under all that's gone on and declare that they are looking to the future now. Plenty of Tory MPs will be heading to the Lords thanks to Sunak and to start prosecuting them would look vindictive and further undermine public confidence in the whole of government.