This Week in Brexitland, February 23, 2023
Is it true that the remaining 27 EU member states wouldn’t allow Britain back in if we wanted to rejoin? I’m asking Europe for the answer
Something I hear all the time on social media from Remainers is some variant of the following sentiment:
‘There’s no point in talking about rejoining the EU because we would never be allowed back in. We behaved badly as a country and the way they are feeling towards Britain now is “good riddance”.
I recently wrote a piece about how Brexit has become like a religion unto itself, “Brexitism”. But I have to point out that the thought I’ve put in quotations above makes me think about “Remainerism” as having shades of religion about it too. We have sinned against the gods of Europe and now we will pay for that crime for the rest of eternity.
I suppose though, who knows, right? Perhaps all the Remainers echoing this sentiment have a point. There’s only one way to know for sure - actually speak to a range of people, politicians, journalists, leaders from civil society across all 27 EU member states and see what they have to say on the subject. So, that’s what I am in the midst of doing.
I’m asking everyone the same set of questions.
How did you and others in your country react in 2016 to the EU referendum result?
What has the Brexit saga done to Euroscepticism in your country, if anything?
If the UK wanted to rejoin the EU, would your country stand in the way or would it welcome the British back? If so, under what conditions, if any?
Thus far I’ve spoken to representatives in Czech Republic, Hungary, Portugal, Sweden, The Netherlands, Germany and France (I have published my first interview from France already, which you can find here and my second one from Hungary here. It’s for paid subscribers, but you can always subscribe to a free trial if you wish to have a look at the whole thing).
That’s seven countries, which is a long way from 27, but it already gives me a good idea where this is probably going given how uniform the responses to the third question have been.
Thus far, no one from any of the countries listed, and I’ve tried to speak to as many people in those member states that are amongst the traditionally Eurosceptic as I can, have said anything other than an enthusiastic “Yes” to the idea of the UK rejoining the EU. I want to repeat: everyone, in every EU country so far, has said they would not only be happy to let the UK rejoin the European Union, they would thrilled if Britain wanted to do so.
As I say, seven out of 27 means it’s too soon to be jumping the gun - perhaps I will speak to a person in Greece who will insist that their government would unquestionably resist the British rejoining - but in particular, having spoken to people in France and Germany, two countries that I thought might pose the biggest problems for Britain rejoining, I’ve heard nothing but positive things around the idea of rejoin.
Every country seems to have their own reasons for wanting the UK back in the EU. The eastern and central European countries see Britain as both their champions and on the same page as they are in terms of federalisation (most members there have a resistance to “ever closer union” on some level). France misses having another nuclear power with a grander worldview in the European Union, one with a more expansive idea of foreign policy similar to theirs. The Germans saw us as a counterbalance to France and several other things when we were a member and miss those days. I could go on, but you see what I mean.
Interestingly, there is uniformity in wanting to see the British rejoin the EU across the Eurosceptic-Europhile divide within the European Union as well. The Eurosceptics want Britain back because they wish to see a large country like the UK who is resistant to increased federalisation of the EU back in the fold. They miss the British and thought of us as their major allies.
The Europhiles, meanwhile, want the UK back in because for a country the size of Great Britain to leave the EU and then later on discover that it was a mistake and rejoin would solidify the European project pretty much for good. No one would ever leave again or indeed, ever even seriously threaten to do so.
The general view from within the EU tends to be that the British screwed up in a major way, but that’s okay in the grand scheme of European history. They realise that the referendum was perfectly timed for the Eurosceptics and thus, it was simply a spot of bad luck for the British. Brexit has also had some small upsides as well. It allowed Ireland to become less economically dependent on Britain in numerous ways. Lots of business moved from Britain to the continent. Brexit acted as a force which brought the EU together in a way nothing else could have. And who knows, perhaps the whole thing will humble the British just a tad, which no one on the continent would say was necessarily a bad thing.
People within the EU member states aren’t seething about Britain’s betrayal - they mostly feel sorry for us. We shot ourselves in a the foot while we were drunk and now we’re limping around, trying to pretend we can walk better than we could before while nursing a nasty hangover.
I think this is important to understand for a number of reasons. If Remainers/Rejoiners want to use the excuse that it’s too soon after leaving the EU to mount an effective campaign to rejoin the EU, or that the mood in the country isn’t there yet, these are arguments I have some degree of sentiment with. If the excuse is “The EU won’t have us back”, that doesn’t wash, I’m afraid.
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A country by country report on how each of the remaining EU27 see post-Brexit Britain now, released piece by piece over the course of the next 18 months. I will interview key people in each EU country and try and present the most balanced view I can from each.
Sections from a book I partly wrote - and will complete for my paid subscribers over this year - entitled, How Brexit Gets Reversed. It is about what happened pre-referendum, during the referendum and then after it but pre-Brexit itself, with some inside stories about Farage, Vote Leave, and the Remain campaign, as well as what I think will happen in the coming decade(s) that leads to Brexit being slowly reversed - and most importantly, what pro-Europeans can do to help the process along.
I will provide a running technical explanation about elements of the Retained EU Law Bill, how EU law translated into UK law works and how it may affect you personally.
Thanks everyone and I’ll see you all again next week for the worst of Brexit.
Others may have already made the same point, but it seems as if the entire piece and even the entire interview campaign are at best based on a misunderstanding. I have never read anybody who argues that the UK has sinned against Europe and that therefore continentals are angry and wouldn't let the UK back in if it asked. What I instead read everywhere is that the EU would be unlikely to let the UK back in as long as one of the two major parties is rabidly anti-membership and would immediately cancel an accession process or leave the EU again after their next election win. That makes a lot of sense - why spend years of negotiations for accession when you can already see that it will be for naught? By setting fire to a straw-man, this post simply side-steps that very real issue.
I think it's a good idea to research what the feelings of the people in the (other) EU member states are about Britain and Brexit, how things are now, and how they feel about the prospect of us rejoining at some future time. I mean, it beats the problem which several have mentioned in comments around here, of our tendency to only consider brexit as it affects UK domestic politics, and it's better to have some information on this than to work in a vacuum or assume we know what people in the EU countries are thinking these days.