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Lindsey's avatar

Agree with the scenarios - an additional point would be the extent to which the Labour victory came via some pretty catastrophic defeats in southern England for the Cons at the hands of the LDs. Remain voting constituencies defeating the Cons emphatically will add to the post election headache for the Cons. which is why it’s so important people vote tactically. A big Labour majority could potentially leave us in a similar position with the far left of Labour pulling Starmers strings. Best solution is the new Govt brings in PR.

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Jonathan Brown's avatar

Farage had another advantage that his opposite would not possess: Brexit wasn't just an end in itself, but a means to supercharge culture war and right-wing economic arguments dear to media barons but not intrinsically very popular.

I'm sceptical about an anti-Farage emerging. While I could see a big movement towards rejoin, or at least a closer relationship with the EU uniting much of the sensible media and other civil society organisations, I suspect that this movement would face the same problem it's had since 2016: an unwillingness to undermine Labour. Whereas Farage's backers cared more about their pet issues than the Tory party, I think most of the potential backers of an anti-Farage would fear that their pet issues would be more harmed by 'letting the Tories back in' than by remaining outside of the EU.

While I share your assessment that the Lib Dems have institutional blocks that would likely prevent them from becoming the party you describe, if rejoin looks to be electorally advantageous, it would be very easy for the Lib Dems to dial up their campaigning on this. I don't see how a new party really gains much traction.

Finally, and "I would say this wouldn't I?", I think electoral reform is key. While First Past the Post can lead to dramatic changes (from bad to good as well as the other way around), there is always the risk that a freakish distribution of the votes can produce a random result. It's hard to see how the UK could become politically stable enough i.e. that the growing pro-EU / pro-rejoin majority could be protected from being overruled by a minority populist government, for the EU to be willing to let the UK back in. Of course, if the UK adopted Proportional Representation, then actually many of the changes the country needs could be unlocked.

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