This week in Brexitland, August 26, 2022

1. Why the Northern Ireland Protocol - and the fallout from it - tells you everything you need to know about Brexit in and of itself

As the interminable Tory leadership contest begins to draw to a close and as it does, the forgone conclusion that Liz Truss has won sets in (barring some sort of shock that would equal the greatest political upset ever, and causing me and several thousand other people to laugh for a week straight), we come onto what the new prime minister is going to actually do. And one of the issues left dangling out there for the next non-zombie government to deal with is the Northern Ireland Protocol.

Of course, the smartest thing the next occupant of Number 10 could do is just leave things as they are and stick to the terms of the agreement they will have voted and campaigned for in 2019/2020. But we know Liz Truss - sorry, I can’t help but make this a forgone conclusion - isn’t going to do that because the NI Protocol, in its own weird way, gets to the heart of what Brexit truly is, both as a project and as a system of belief.

Let’s start with the democracy issue. Brexiters love to go on about democracy and how they are stalwart defenders of it, while Remainers have shown casual disregard for the importance of respecting the vote at every turn. Except of course, Brexiters are happy to disregard democracy when it doesn’t suit them, Northern Ireland being a great example of this. There was an election for the Northern Ireland Assembly in May of this year. Sinn Fein won. They got 64,000 more first preference votes than the second place DUP, which is quite a bit. Added to this, the Alliance party gained nine seats. This means that you have Sinn Fein as the largest party and an increase in representation of other parties who are essentially pro-NI Protocol (as in, they would prefer the Protocol to any other solution within the boundaries of Brexit).

The democratic result here is clear. The Northern Irish people have spoken and they would like the UK government to leave the Protocol alone, at least for now (people can change their minds in a democracy, another important democratic principle lost on most Brexiters). However, this is complicated by the fact that Northern Ireland has a power sharing agreement. If one side of the Nationalist-Unionist divide won’t take their seats, the Assembly is “paused”. Of course, if the Brexiter government of the United Kingdom really cared about democracy as much as they constantly claim, they would be forced to tell the DUP that, given the result of the democratic election in May, the NI Protocol is going to stay as is for the time being. If the DUP won’t take their seats, well, the UK government will try and execute the democratic will of the Northern Irish people from Whitehall as best they can.

But no. We are told by everyone who could conceivably have a high ranking position in the next government that the NI Protocol Bill, which overrides the international agreement those same Conservatives who will almost certainly make up the next government signed and campaigned to implement, needs to be given Royal Assent because the DUP won’t come to the table otherwise. In other words, the UK government are appeasing the party which clearly lost the election at the expense of the desires of both the winner and the majority will in the relevant parliament.

Yes, you could present me with a list of compelling reasons why the UK government wants to appease the DUP. But they would all by necessity undermine the Brexiter mantra of “the vote always wins” because, as Northern Ireland demonstrates, sometimes it clearly does not.

There is a lot more to the “Northern Ireland Protocol and its fallout = Brexit in miniature” equation, however. The discussion between the candidates to be the next Tory leader on the subject of the NI Protocol Bill has been conducted as if the UK and the EU were of very similar size, and all the UK has to do is get tough in order to demonstrate “we mean business”. This stratagem has been tried on countless occasions since 2016 and has worked precisely zero times. At every attempt, the UK government essentially settles for what the EU are willing to give after a performance of battling, because ultimately they have more power than we do. You can lament that point, but that’s reality and you know what I’ve said before about facts and their relationship with one’s feelings.

Finally, like Brexit, the NI Protocol Bill exists in an intellectual space in which everyone who has any idea of what’s really going on here knows this is all a terrible idea and nothing has worked out as planned, and yet the pretence that everything can be solved with one simple thing remains exceptionally alluring. Even when this one simple thing doesn’t turn out to work, a new idea is landed on that will supposedly be the saviour of the project. It will be interesting to see how long this can continue.

2. The view from France

Again, I write from within the European Union. This time from France, albeit I’ve come to a notably unfashionable bit of the country, one that I’ve visited many times before and have a great deal of affection for.

The only thing I have to say that is relevant to this Substack is that being in a part of France I’ve been to a million times already, I’m really noticing the difference in terms of cost of living between here and the UK. I always try and not conflate too many things with Brexit but it’s difficult not to notice that this part of France is just not having the same problems most of Britain seems to be facing. There’s much better product choice, yes, that’s there, but it’s remarkable how much cheaper food is overall when compared to the UK. Fruit and veg in particular. I’m just not seeing the same level of food price inflation at all. Which I suppose I knew before I came down here, but it’s one thing reading economic reports, it’s another getting to a checkout at a supermarket, having your items rung through and then finding that the price is much less than you thought it was going to be, as opposed to what you’ve got used to recently, the total due always being notably more than you were expecting.

And yes, this is down to Brexit. Or at least, what we have is a series of conditions that all lead back to Brexit being hugely involved in every one of them. It’s now harder to trade with the countries around us, and given Britain is not self-sufficient in many ways - food being one of these - erecting barriers between us and all of our neighbours was always going to result in things being more expensive for British consumers. I mean, it’s just basic capitalist economic orthodoxy. You know, the thing that used to be core to the Conservative party’s viewpoint on the world, before it starting denouncing this sort of thing as being the work of globalist, corporate elites.

Meanwhile, I’m having a nice time burning through the 90 days I’m allowed to spend in the EU during this half a year, looking back with melancholy to a time, not so long ago, when I could have stayed as long as I liked, even have lived here by right had I wanted to. Perhaps one day, that will be the case again - perhaps a day not so long from now.

Thanks again for reading. If you haven’t already, please subscribe. I’ll be back next week again with the worst of Brexit.