This week in Brexitland, August 15, 2024

Here’s what Starmer should actually do about Britain’s relationship with Europe from here

One of the strangest things about the general election campaign just gone is how little Brexit was discussed - although it is logical when you think it through. Pro-Brexit politicians didn’t want to talk about it because it hasn’t gone particularly well so far, while nominally anti-Brexit politicians are still obsessed about Leave voters and sparking a debate about Brexit that they feel burned enough by in the past to want to avoid now.

That leaves a gaping hole in our politics, of course. What to do about our relationship with Europe, particularly given how bad the Boris Johnson deal has turned out to be, which no amount of Windsor Framework type fudges have been able to rectify, looms large. Starmer has talked about fixing this, but the details seem to either be fuzzy or rooted in science fiction (where, to be fair, all Brexit discussions have tended to reside since the referendum came and went). So, here is the key question: what should Starmer do about Europe now that he’s in Number 10? Or more to the point, what would he do, if he wasn’t scared of offending all of the phantom Labour Leave voters?

I accept that it should go in stages. If he wants to keep a certain portion of the electorate from getting scared of a “return to the Brexit civil war”, he should just negotiate a customs union with the EU, starting tomorrow. This is basic and necessary. The right-wing press would throw plenty of shit in his direction if he did this - but seriously, how much of it would really stick? It doesn’t involve putting freedom of movement back in place, so does not affect immigration in any sense. What it would affect is our ability to do trade deals and we’d have to scrap the ones we have done already - which, let’s be clear here, no one electorally significant gives the slightest crap about. Leading Labour figures have already said as much when talking about regulatory alignment with the EU - why then would a customs union, which would be so much more advantageous than just alignment for the sake of it, be so much more politically treacherous than what they are already planning? It’s only the “make Brexit better” brain that would worry about this.

Of course, the Brexiters would complain that “This is Starmer moving us back into the EU, inch by inch”. Yet by doing so, they would only be shooting themselves in the foot, at least long-term. We would move into a customs union and nothing bad would happen, while a few noticeably good things would take place. This might get people thinking, “You know what? If Starmer is moving us back into the EU inch by inch, that might not be such a bad thing”. After all, what the people Labour are worried about offending here are those who don’t want another referendum and a protracted fight on this topic. If this is just Starmer pushing us slowly back into the European Union, with no real battles necessary, most Labour voters will be fine with it.

After letting the customs union settle in for at least a year, maybe two, the pro-Europeans within Labour could become more ambitious. Hey, if joining a customs union with the EU turned out to be a good idea, what about rejoining the single market, which would be even better? And if we’re going to be part of a customs union and the single market, wouldn’t it be better to just rejoin full stop, given we’d then have a full say in the regulations again?

But that’s a battle for another day. Starmer should start by negotiating a customs union with the EU. He must know in his heart that it is both necessary and comes with much less political risk than anyone around him is warning him about. Just do it, Keir. Better now than later, when it may become more politically difficult - and even more necessary.

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