This week in Brexitland, August 1, 2024
Despite having 72 seats, the Lib Dems are almost totally invisible so far. Why?
One of the great success stories of the 2024 general election is the Liberal Democrats. They went from only 11 seats at the 2019 general election to 72 seats now, an incredible achievement. Yet you never hear anything about this at all. It’s like it has been airbrushed out of the story of the election altogether. Many Lib Dems will blame the mainstream media and the wider blogosphere for this. We just don’t fit their agenda, they’ll say. It’s unfair, is another thing they will say. While I don’t doubt that it is unfair on the Lib Dems and what happened to them deserves a lot more column inches, it is mostly their fault this has not taken place.
The Lib Dems ran on what was very close to being an empty ticket in the 2024 general election. We all know what we saw: Ed Davey having fun, going on rides, exercising with the elderly, etc. I know part of this was supposed to highlight their core issue, social care, but what mostly came through to the average voters was this: “We aren’t about anything at all. We’re anti-politics, in fact. If you want a safe place to land your vote, and you don’t like Farage, the Tories or Starmer, give it to us.” Lots of people did. And while this was a brilliant strategy for getting seats at the 2024 general election, it has left them nowhere to go - or at least nowhere easy to go.
The Lib Dems aren’t getting any press because, basically, they have nothing to say. Their shtick at the moment is essentially: “We will pressure Labour on the NHS and social care”. Except, those aren’t things anyone worries about when it comes to the Labour Party. In fact, they qualify as amongst the safest ground for Starmer and his crew. No one is thinking, “Will Starmer dismantle the NHS?”, what they worry about is, “Will Starmer put my taxes up? And will the country get no better with Labour in charge?” The current Lib Dem strategy doesn’t work - unless it’s about continuing to be invisible, which is a limited strategy from here.
What worked in 2024 is far from guaranteed to work next time. In fact, it very likely won’t work. The Lib Dems are stuck in an age old quandary for them: their voters are centre, even centre-right, while their activist base is left of Trotsky. Being about something is extremely difficult when your voters and your activists are that far apart from each other.
Yet there is one issue that unites them all - and you probably know what I’m going to say already, not just because of the name of this Substack, but because it’s insanely obvious: Europe. The Lib Dems should become a vocally, unabashedly pro-European party again. Talk about Britain rejoining the single market, whenever they possibly can. Ask about it at PMQs, every week parliament is in session. Make it the Lib Dem thing again.
What are they scared of? The right-wing papers ridiculing them? At least they would be talking about the party again, amplifying the message in the process. It is the one thing the Lib Dems can talk about that would truly put pressure on Labour. Also, the Lib Dems need to rediscover that when you have 72 seats, it is beholden on you not just to blow with the wind, but to make the weather. By being more pro-European, the Lib Dems could open up the conversation on this subject again. They could move the Overton Window on the whole topic of Britain’s relationship with the rest of Europe. In fact, I’d go as far as to say, the Lib Dems are the only organisation that could make reversing Brexit more likely while being one that at least in theory would do this.
I’ll close here: if not now for the Lib Dems and Europe, what is it they continue to exist as a party for? To just act as a wingman for Starmer over the next decade? Why not just melt into Labour officially if that’s the aim? Give us a positive reason to vote Lib Dem again, not just “They aren’t Labour” or “They aren’t the Tories”. The Lib Dems could actually matter once more, in a real, lasting way - if they were willing to talk about turning back towards the EU again.
Thanks for reading. If you haven’t subscribed already, please do, and I’ll be back next week, probably…..
It is a good question to ask a month out from the election results but I fear that your opinion reads more like you started with your premise and are working back to justify it. You obviously have a longer history with the Lib Dems than most people myself included but I wonder how useful your experiences are now post Coalition, post Ref, post 2017, 19 etc. Are you involved in party activism? Do you go to party socials, campaigns, conferences? If not, when did you stop?
You dismiss the usual arguments about the press and such, which I think isn't unfair as that has always been the case. You also dismiss manifesto and policy blithely, then saying the party will just follow Labour. Then you note the activists are to the left of Trotsky despite the MPs/voters. Which I think also is a bit off and doesn't really reflect the reality of members or activists I've met. The current activists do include a lot of left wing people and right wing people, both united by their anger at the Tories or Labour (depending where they live).
The answer to me is simply that a month isn't a long time to know if Things Have Changed. The focus understandably has been on the new government, how it deals with the problems of Britain, its large majority etc; the Conservative collapse and long summer leadership contest; the surprising success of the Greens, the collapse of the SNP and of course the return of UKIP/Reform Party and Farage, this time in parliament. Those are all very interesting topics and I'm afraid to admit as a member, equally if not more than the recovery of the Lib Dems to 3rd.
But that's not to say it remains comparatively boring. Because MP numbers matter in parliament, even if not to media, commentators or reporters. The sheer weight of Lib Dem MPs compared to the SNP, Reform or Greens and even the Tories, will start to tell. They'll do or say interesting things in parliament, or at home, they'll get on the national media or local media. It'll be clear they're doing things in a way that they haven't really since the Coalition or before.
No one who's followed politics since after 2010 has experienced the Lib Dems as a large opposition party. This will include loads of members, activists, councillors or MPs, not just media under their mid 30s. They are used to it being a Tory/Labour(Corbyn etc)//SNP system, with Green/UKIP/Reform taking up the oxygen of opposition, with the LDs at 8-11 MPs and some by election wins. But that period is over now. Labour can no longer do oppositional politics. The Tories will be at sea for a few months/years. Reform and the Greens will be boisterous till they slowly become aware of the realities of being very Small, even if Exciting to media or voters.
So I don't think there's any need yet for Bold Prescriptions about tacking centre right, or this policy or that policy. Let’s wait to see what comes out after the party conference next month, with the new spokespeople, with the new select committee chairs and many LD MPs on most of the other committees.
I do hope the party takes a bold position on Single Market, or Rejoin though!
Absolutely right. Being MPs for ‘lovely places to live’ as one of my friends dubs them isn’t enough. They are the natural refuge of wet, liberal, Waitrose shopping, environmentally aware Tories.
Please ask Mark Pack what the plan is, as he’s the campaigner with influence at the top.
They (we, as I am a very passive member) need to sing from the rooftops about the single market. I would advocate joining EFTA. That would get Labour activists countering and put pressure on Starmer