Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Jonathan Brown's avatar

Why in your scenario 2 do you think the Lib Dems _should_ flop? I take this to mean that in the circumstances this is what we should expect, not that you'd like this outcome (although you might).

But the Lib Dems traditionally are pretty good at local election campaigns, and there are lots of places where dissatisfied Tories can migrate to the Lib Dems, either because there is no real Labour presence or because we're talking about small 'l' liberal conservatives who're happy to vote LD but for whom Labour would be a stretch.

Full disclosure: we're hoping to seize control of Chichester District from the Tories on the 4th...

Expand full comment
James1942's avatar

Hi Nick, what is your feeling as regards tactical voting? According to Election Maps UK, the Tories are standing candidates in 93% of seats, Labour in 77%, the Lib Dems in 59%, and the Greens in 41%. I wonder if this is suggestive of frequent (if unstated/unofficial) local pacts, or a pragmatic commitment of resources only to areas where the parties believe they can win. Is there a scenario where Labour, LD and even Greens all do well at the Tories' expense? Or is that less likely than one specific opposition party making significant gains?

Expand full comment
6 more comments...

No posts