This week in Brexitland, Sept 10th, 2021
What I want to achieve from this substack is putting all of the relevant information about Brexit, as it unfolds, in one easy to reference place, each and every week. I have found through my trips on social media that a lot of people out there that both Leavers and Remainers have many misconceptions about our current relationship with the EU post-Brexit, what the trade deal with the EU does and does not include, and many other details surrounding our departure from the European Union. I think all of this is relevant to how we talk about all of this going forward.
I also think that documenting Brexit as it unfolds, week by week, is important in and of itself. So, here goes nothing, the relevant Brexit stories from week one:
1.The government is thinking about delaying post-Brexit checks on goods coming from the EU - again
The news on this comes from Politics Home:
https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/government-is-debating-whether-to-delay-postbrexit-import-checks-again)
To summarise, the UK government is considering delaying putting heavy, third country checks on goods coming from the EU that are due to start in October 2021. This would amount to another pause in implementing these checks - they were supposed to be put in place in April this year, giving companies a three month cushion to adjust from the start of the new trade arrangements signed at the last minute at the close of 2020.
The business community warned the government of total chaos if these checks were implemented in April, so they were shoved back to October, giving companies another six months to prepare for the new post-Brexit world. However, there are still genuine worries of chaos if they get put in place in October, so there is a consideration of pushing them back yet again.
I think some of this needs clarifying. One, this isn’t anything to do with the checks between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK - that is an entirely separate issue. I know it’s confusing, but Brexit is confusing and messy, so what do you want. No, this has to do with the UK putting in place checks on goods coming from the EU that would mirror what the EU put in place on January 1, 2021, treating the previously free trade that existed with a mess of red tape.
You wouldn’t know it from the news since this is hardly ever discussed, but the situation since the start of 2021 has been this: UK exporters face a massive hassle to sell into the EU, while EU companies trying to sell into the UK face no difficulties whatsoever. There are two main problems with this. One is that it places a huge weight on UK companies who export to the EU. Meanwhile, the “German car makers” and the “Italian prosecco sellers” face much fewer hurdles as a result of Brexit. At least, not yet. In essence, the current situation means that Brexit has hampered UK companies at the expense of EU based firms. Taking back control feels good, doesn’t it?
The second problem with the current state of affairs is that it is technically in breach of WTO rules. You know, those things Brexiteers sang about being the greatest thing in the world and we could trade by alone, yes those. We are currently offering the EU special status by allowing their goods in freely, while applying checks to goods coming from elsewhere. At some point, this will become a real problem.
Given all that, why keep pushing back the implementation of these checks? The reason is simple: fear of supply chains breaking down in a way that no one could ignore. Think of some of the food shortages parts of the country are facing at the moment. This is simply due to lack of lorry drivers available to get the goods to market. Now, imagine if, on top of the lorry driver problem, you made the flow of the goods much harder to get into the UK in a timely fashion?
An easier way to think about it is, you have a supply chain. When that chain has no problems, everything flows freely across it. The supermarkets have all the stock they need, everyone is happy. Now we have one problem within the chain in that lorries aren’t moving the goods fast enough for demand in some areas due to a lack of drivers. But putting in place third country checks on EU goods would be another issue in the chain, not only slowing things down further but then compounding your lorry driver problem. The Conservative government rightly worries that the supply chain issues would become so profound, the shortages might cause more people than just FBPE types on Twitter to start to get agitated. Maybe a certain group of voters would start to question Brexit altogether, and that would be politically disastrous for the Tories.
So an essential part of the whole Brexit project gets delayed. Again.
2.Michel Barnier becomes a Frexiteer
The scourge of Brexiteers, the man who negotiated on behalf of the EU and managed to get the UK government to essentially give Northern Ireland up, that guy, well, he’s become a world leading Frexiteer this week. For background, Barnier has decided to throw his hat in the ring to be the next French President. He’s decided to go a wee bit Le Pen in his pursuit of this goal.
He has spoken a lot of guff about how “We must regain our legal sovereignty in order to no longer be subject to the judgement of the ECJ or the ECHR.” This is usual right-wing light-Eurosceptic stuff that is throw around in these stages of an electoral contest on the continent. Voters like to hear this stuff, but are not so fond of facing the consequences of what actually following through would entail.
The more substantive thing Barnier has proposed is a referendum on imposing a 5-year ban on immigration to France - from non-EU countries. That last bit is pretty crucial.
If you like this and would like to read this again sometime, please subscribe. And pro-Europeans, remember: the road back will be long, but worth it.