Is Starmer in real trouble already?
The first two weeks of the Labour government post-election seemed to indicate a flying, triumphant start to a new era. The announcement of ideas around changing planning laws even had the centre-right think tank bubble admitting they were impressed with it all. This, coupled with the Tories seeming determined not to learn a single lesson from their crushing defeat meant the phrase “the grown ups are back in charge” did not seem hyperbolic.
Then came the announcement around banning smoking outside of pubs. Given Starmer had promised to “tread easier on everyone’s lives”, coming out with a nanny state idea seemed like a contradiction of what was offered, not to mention a silly burning of political capital, had heads scratching in Westminster.
Then came the Starmer expenses issues, which is evolving into a scandal. Coupled with this, Number 10 seems as leaky as it did when the Tories were falling apart after ten years in government, which is ominous for a government that is a few weeks old. There seems to be increasing internal anger at Sue Gray already - again, after only a couple of months and change in Downing Street.
It’s leading many to wonder if Starmer is up to the job. The crazier commentary on this is that he’ll be out of office within a year - the more realistic ones posit that he will limp through this parliament and lose the next election. I have no crystal ball but I think that it’s more likely than not that Starmer will survive the current bumpy road and win the next general election. There are two reasons for this.
One is that we’ve been here before - underestimating Starmer, I mean. In the aftermath of the Hartlepool by-election in 2021, which saw the Tories gain what had been a very safe Labour seat, few people in Westminster would have bet that Starmer would go on to win a general election in three years’ time - never mind win it with a Blair-sized majority.
He turned things around with ballsy steps which contained within them huge risks but also huge rewards. Starmer did a reshuffle that was sure to annoy the left of the party - and frankly, even the soft left of Labour. He took the whip away from Corbyn. Starmer was determined to change Labour’s public image - and he succeeded beyond what even people like me who warned the Tories they were underestimating Starmer greatly could have imagined possible.
Starmer is better than people continue to believe, even after everything he has achieved. His leadership of Labour got off to a rocky start in 2020/21 - the first year was pretty ropey, in fact - but he came through that and led his party to an extremely unlikely victory. I think it is probable that he will have a similar experience as prime minister.
The second reason I think Starmer will win the next general election is that the Tories appear to have checked out, of British politics and reality altogether. None of the leadership bids have been inspiring or even addressed any of the reasons the party lost so badly. Most of the campaigns to be the next Tory leader have been downright awful - including the one rolled out by the presumed front-runner.
I cannot see the Conservatives in their current guise winning the next general election. Perhaps in a couple of years time, they might be able to realise how dark a path they have gone down and change tack. But I think the odds are against it.
Again, I don’t have a crystal ball. Perhaps being PM is a step too far for Starmer. Maybe the Tories really will get their shit together. It’s just that neither of those two things seem terribly likely. Whatever you think of Starmer’s government so far, my gut is telling me he isn’t going anywhere anytime soon - and that he will only be replaced as prime minister when there is a viable alternative.
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Starmer is essentially a lawyer (a very competent one) and not a politician (a not particularly competent one). I think that he sees things in transactional terms, as a lawyer would, and not in the more philosophical terms that the ablest politicians do. I think that his statements and public position on EU/SM/CU are an expression of his lawyer's "Weltanschauung" and were a terrible mistake, because he is alienating people whose support he needs, whilst not really scooping up the Brexie vote. And moreover the fact that we see, with accelerating remorselessness, that the hard Brexit the Tories sicked up on us is an economic, social and political disaster means that the longer UK politicians are unwilling to address the truth the worse things will get.
The British people are in an incredibly volatile mood, but the reasons for throwing out the incompetent, corrupt bunch of hooray henry public school boys associated with austerity and right wing extremism would remain. Memories are short and the right wing press takes no prisoners, but they are not that short. The 72 LibDems and 4 Greens will be building themselves into the local areas that elected them and Ed Davey believes he can take more Tory seats, with 20 odd vulnerable. Four hundred Labour MP's might be reduced in number but they can afford to lose some and continue. There is a possibility that the eviscerated Tory Party will continue to decline sufficiently in opposition that they fall into 3rd place behind the LibDems, who are offering a more constructive opposition.